CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: I think this will ultimately be a miss for the east coast but, let's see how things develop. what makes you think this will me a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 6 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: what makes you think this will me a miss? For starters, it's a lot harder to get a storm to turn left. Not to mention if it turns north before a certain degree, 70W for example. Also, would appear that it's getting captured by the 200mb (jet stream) on the gfs and euro models fairly well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 I will note though that the 00z euro the jet stream doesn't capture the storm very easily, and it does it closer to the north east but still offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Based off the last 33 years this probably is nothing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 4 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Based off the last 33 years this probably is nothing Nothing in mumbai I'm still on my seat for this one, you never can tell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 21 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: what makes you think this will me a miss? Because every model is showing it being a miss. You're seeing what we're seeing, right? Wish casting won't make it turn the other way. 1 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 could be over for Brampton, Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10 Author Share Posted August 10 Both Beryl and Debby are examples this year of how much of an eternity away this is given the lack of a clear and clean recurve steering pattern. We should also not forget that no mainland US impacts ignores the very real risk to PR and USVI/Antilles. Or Atlantic Canada. We don’t have a center. We haven’t seen potential land interaction with the Antilles. We don’t know the orientation of EC trough or if it’ll even be there the way the models project post D6. We don’t know the amplitude of the Atlantic ridge post D6. It’s ok to say this is worth watching. Doesn’t mean doom is coming. We could all do without the hyperbole. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 49 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Because every model is showing it being a miss. You're seeing what we're seeing, right? Wish casting won't make it turn the other way. GFS has been pretty consistent with where it’s putting the low off the Antilles. Think that’s where people should focus for now. It needs to get to a certain location for us to be in the crosshairs. Does seem like a shift east on the last few model runs though. It’s probably nothing, but at least we have something to complain about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Long ways to go people, once cyclogenesis occurs we can actually glean some insight into land interaction near the Caribbean. The long term prospects on this system are still a crapshoot. Only insight I can feel confident in is that generally next week doesn't have a synoptic pattern that screams quick recurve due to the possibility of a weak trough over the E US and weaker westerlies (given climatology). Of course these chess pieces are being modeled in fantasy land, ride with the ensembles for now. I think Webb had a great explanation on this. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Other 12Z: ICON: TC PR on 8/14, recurves 69W, heading NE S of Berm at 180 CMC: misses Caribb, recurves 64W, no land hit Euro: TS E PR, recurve 67W, just SE of Berm. as cat 2, goes SE of Canada UK: recurve 69W; turns NW at 28N NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 20.8N 68.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.08.2024 108 20.8N 68.7W 1009 32 1200UTC 15.08.2024 120 24.0N 68.7W 1008 40 0000UTC 16.08.2024 132 25.4N 68.4W 1005 48 1200UTC 16.08.2024 144 26.7N 67.5W 1003 44 0000UTC 17.08.2024 156 28.0N 67.2W 1001 44 1200UTC 17.08.2024 168 28.7N 67.9W 1001 41 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Looks like it’s improved a bit the last couple hours or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 1 minute ago, NotSureWeather said: Looks like it’s improved a bit the last couple hours or so. full steam ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 If sustained convection can tighten the broad circulation, 98L shouldn't be long for classification. Note the strong, westerly motion within the low-level cloud flow on visible in the southern half of the disturbance. Low pressure is defined, and the wave axis has folded. If the system can tighten up a bit, it may outperform prior to the Antilles. There is a notable diffluent pattern aloft for a TC in this setup on the approach to the Leewards that would support an intensifying hurricane. Hopefully, it takes time for the broad circulation to tighten.Good post on the aforementioned setup here: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Anyone having issues with this website loading weird on mobile devices sometimes? Right now I have to zoom really far out to see notifications etc.. not sure what it might be.. Only happening on this page right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10 Author Share Posted August 10 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: If sustained convection can tighten the broad circulation, 98L shouldn't be long for classification. Note the strong, westerly motion within the low-level cloud flow on visible in the southern half of the disturbance. Low pressure is defined, and the wave axis has folded. If the system can tighten up a bit, it may outperform prior to the Antilles. There is a notable diffluent pattern aloft for a TC in this setup on the approach to the Leewards that would support an intensifying hurricane. Hopefully, it takes time for the broad circulation to tighten. Good post on the aforementioned setup here: It looked to me this morning that shear was impacting the convection some, but I agree this is looking pretty solid right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Euro ops is east eps to? Gefs I think looks east overall looking at the total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 28 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Euro ops is east eps to? Gefs I think looks east overall looking at the total precip Basically every model has been trending east since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 16 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Basically every model has been trending east since yesterday. By Monday they’ll all be coming back west… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 98L Hurricane Model 18z Suite was west from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 over for the caribbean if this verifies 18z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 12z, 18z, does any of this looks west or an loosing my mind. Doesn't look it too me Maybe a slice but the curve is still pronounced. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 12z, 18z does any of this looks west or an loosing my mind. Doesn't look it too me It’s not at mid latitude. Maybe closer to SE Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It’s not at mid latitude. Maybe closer to SE Canada. Still, the loop that he posted only shows short term range not long term... And that poster person quoted lives in Florida so I'm sure his first priority would be the south east area first. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Still, the loop that he posted only shows short term range not long term... And that poster person quoted lives in Florida so I'm sure his first priority would be the south east area first. Lol 1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98): Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. A tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Then, the system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Gefs is slightly more west compared to earlier runs up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now