wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: Scrambled eggs!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 66.1W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 66.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible by early next week. Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located about 55 miles (90 km) north-northeast of Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (94 km/h), with a gust up to 74 mph (119 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on data from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.61 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 He is still hauling asses without any slowdown lol I thought it would start to slow down by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 He isn’t weakening and he’s large with TS winds 275 to SE of the center. Very heavy rains expected in Bermuda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Might be trying to make an eye. Pressure rose a little 2mb. Looking at recon stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Looking well organized on radar with a very impressive NE sector. Batten down the hatches! https://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=500KM PPI&user= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: Looking well organized on radar with a very impressive NE sector. Batten down the hatches! https://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=500KM PPI&user= Looks like an eye is finally starting to clear out! @n9wiff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: Might be trying to make an eye. Pressure rose a little 2mb. Looking at recon stuff. Getting a lot of help evacuating the air upstream with the trough this could aid in some modest strengthening maybe to the tune of 110 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 So if HASF-A is right we will have our second major of the year. Mirin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Already seeing gusts of 50-65 mph across the island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Bermuda webcam: https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 tropical storm force with the steady winds (36 gusting to 47) Quote TXKF 161955Z 12036G47KT 6000 R12///// -RA FEW017 SCT120 OVC160 27/24 Q1005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 It looks better for sure but, it may be sucking some more dry air on the west side again. Based on the airmass sat loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 It's going be a fight to the finish line no doubt,! Microwave shows it getting weaker and it goes to 20:45utc so as fresh as it can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Next recon mission is starting shortly so we shall see what is really going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Somehow I doubt this mesoscale discussion for the TX/OK panhandles is related to Hurricane Ernesto... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 We lost the eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 34 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Bermuda webcam: https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/ And while still online, it was either taken off its mount or blown over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 40 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Bermuda webcam: https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/ It even has sound wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 After looking quite ragged this morning, Ernesto's structure on satellite has made a comeback. A burst of convection that began after the last advisory has wrapped around the western side of the hurricane, and the eye has also tried to clear. The structural improvement in Ernesto was also seen from the last couple of Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter fixes which indicated the eyewall definition had improved while remaining quite large. This improved eyewall can also be seen on radar imagery out of Bermuda. Before departing, the peak flight-level winds from the NOAA-P3 aircraft was 107 kt at 750 mb, while the Air Force reconnaissance measured 99 kt at 700 mb. While the satellite-based intensity estimates are a bit lower, the initial intensity will be held at 85 kt given the higher aircraft observations and improvement in structure this afternoon. Of note, Saildrone SD-1068 appears to currently be in the northwest eyewall of Ernesto and recently reported wind gusts of hurricane-force and significant wave heights up to 36 feet. Ernesto has maintained a north-northeast track this afternoon, estimated at 035/11 kt. There isn't much change in the track thinking this afternoon, as a mid to upper-level trough that has been helping the hurricane move poleward will leave Ernesto behind over the next day or two. While Ernesto will remain steered by a subtropical ridge to its southeast, it is still forecast to temporarily slow its north-northeastward motion. Thereafter, another shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region is expected to dig southeastward over the Eastern U.S. and act as a kicker that will help to accelerate Ernesto more northeastward between forecast days 2 to 3. There is not much change to the track guidance this afternoon, just perhaps a touch slower after the next 24 hours, and the NHC track forecast lies very close to the prior one, close to the multi-model consensus aids. Based on the latest track, Ernesto's large eye will likely be very near or over Bermuda tomorrow morning. Intensity-wise, the model guidance continues to be insistent that Ernesto will weaken some in the short term as it battles 20-25 kt vertical wind shear out of the west, though so far Ernesto has been been more resilient than expected, possibly due to its large size. Nonetheless, this NHC intensity forecast will show some weakening, though not as much as IVCN or some of the hurricane-regional models over the next 24 h. After that time, shear decreases again while Ernesto will remain over 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures, and the intensity guidance responds to these more favorable conditions by showing some restrengthening. Finally, after 60 h, Ernesto will quickly cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream as the shear also begins to rapidly increase again. The NHC intensity forecast shows the hurricane completing extratropical tradition just after 72 h as the system passes nearby the southeastern coast of Newfoundland Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located about 25 miles (90 km) west-northwest of Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h), with a gust to 89 mph (143 km/h). The Bermuda International Airport also recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 The damage is done, so far recon isn't seeing crazy winds, if not lower so far, unless the right plot is not the one that's use but instead the left one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 Half the storms missing, and I think it's going pass to the right of Bermuda.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Half the storms missing, and I think it's going pass to the right of Bermuda.. Certainly will be nothing they have not seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 35 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Half the storms missing, and I think it's going pass to the right of Bermuda.. Halfacane. Dry air absolutely wrecked this one, now shear is in for the kill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 https://www.portbermudawebcam.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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