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Hurricane Ernesto


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SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 66.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was 
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 66.1 West. Ernesto is 
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This 
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by 
Saturday.  A faster northeastward motion is expected late this 
weekend into early next week.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday 
morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, 
though some re-intensification is possible by early next week.

Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds 
extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and 
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). 
Saildrone SD-1068 located about 55 miles (90 km) north-northeast of 
Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (94 
km/h), with a gust up to 74 mph (119 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from both Air Force and 
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.61 inches).
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Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

After looking quite ragged this morning, Ernesto's structure on
satellite has made a comeback.  A burst of convection that began
after the last advisory has wrapped around the western side of the
hurricane, and the eye has also tried to clear. The structural
improvement in Ernesto was also seen from the last couple of Air
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter fixes which indicated the eyewall
definition had improved while remaining quite large. This improved
eyewall can also be seen on radar imagery out of Bermuda. Before
departing, the peak flight-level winds from the NOAA-P3 aircraft was
107 kt at 750 mb, while the Air Force reconnaissance measured 99 kt
at 700 mb. While the satellite-based intensity estimates are a bit
lower, the initial intensity will be held at 85 kt given the higher
aircraft observations and improvement in structure this afternoon.
Of note, Saildrone SD-1068 appears to currently be in the northwest
eyewall of Ernesto and recently reported wind gusts of
hurricane-force and significant wave heights up to 36 feet.

Ernesto has maintained a north-northeast track this afternoon,
estimated at 035/11 kt. There isn't much change in the track
thinking this afternoon, as a mid to upper-level trough that has
been helping the hurricane move poleward will leave Ernesto behind
over the next day or two. While Ernesto will remain steered by a
subtropical ridge to its southeast, it is still forecast to
temporarily slow its north-northeastward motion. Thereafter, another
shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region is expected to
dig southeastward over the Eastern U.S. and act as a kicker that
will help to accelerate Ernesto more northeastward between forecast
days 2 to 3. There is not much change to the track guidance this
afternoon, just perhaps a touch slower after the next 24 hours, and
the NHC track forecast lies very close to the prior one, close to
the multi-model consensus aids. Based on the latest track, Ernesto's
large eye will likely be very near or over Bermuda tomorrow
morning.

Intensity-wise, the model guidance continues to be insistent that
Ernesto will weaken some in the short term as it battles 20-25 kt
vertical wind shear out of the west, though so far Ernesto has been
been more resilient than expected, possibly due to its large size.
Nonetheless, this NHC intensity forecast will show some weakening,
though not as much as IVCN or some of the hurricane-regional models
over the next 24 h. After that time, shear decreases again while
Ernesto will remain over 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures, and the
intensity guidance responds to these more favorable conditions by
showing some restrengthening. Finally, after 60 h, Ernesto will
quickly cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream as the shear also
begins to rapidly increase again. The NHC intensity forecast shows
the hurricane completing extratropical tradition just after 72 h as
the system passes nearby the southeastern coast of Newfoundland
Canada.
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Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend 
outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and 
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). 
Saildrone SD-1068 located about 25 miles (90 km) west-northwest of 
Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (108 
km/h), with a gust to 89 mph (143 km/h). The Bermuda International 
Airport also recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h), 
with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).
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