Hurricane Ernesto

[wthrmn654]

Amazing how it's still dropping pressure yet taking on air, but luckily winds aren't going crazy power say. With that said recon may of gotten a couple samples while it was firing up again.  

 

May just be night time throwing a twist but it looks like it's a little smaller.?

[wthrmn654]

 

[Kevin Reilly]

12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

 

There is lots of dry stable air poised up here in the Mid Atlantic complete with wildfire smoke from Eastern Canda.   Dewpoints in the mid 50's here right now and that air is actually pressing southeast towards Ernesto, so I really think this storm stays in check. 

[Chinook]

By the way, this recon plot says 969mb and the flight level winds peaked at close to 100 kt (can't show the plot) but at least 96kt (cat 3) with one wind barb being the light pink color. As mentioned NHC says 90mph on Public Advisory 17A

[wthrmn654]

6 minutes ago, Chinook said:

By the way, this recon plot says 969mb and the flight level winds peaked at close to 100 kt (can't show the plot) but at least 96kt (cat 3) with one wind barb being the light pink color. As mentioned NHC says 90mph on Public Advisory 17A

I saw that as well, they were flying into a deep explosive cluster of storms when that was being recorded too 

[GaWx]

 Whereas highest winds are important and interesting to follow, keep in mind how large this storm is: TS winds extend out a whopping 265 miles SE of the center. The storm size (based on TS force winds) is ~425 miles from NW to SE. The average is only ~300 miles wide. Due to this large size and projected slower movement near Bermuda, rainfall there is projected by the NHC to be 6-12” on Bermuda with high amounts to 15”. Those would be extreme amounts for them possibly leading to widespread flash flooding.

[wthrmn654]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

Ernesto has been strengthening this evening.  Data from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure
has fallen to about 968 mb, and a blend of the peak flight-level
and SFMR winds support increasing the initial intensity to 85 kt.
This makes Ernesto a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Ernesto has a ragged eye and a large wind
field, with the highest winds occurring in the northeast quadrant.

Ernesto is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between
a high pressure system over the central Atlantic and a large-scale
trough off the U.S. east coast.  This general motion is expected to
continue for the next day or two, bringing the hurricane near or
over Bermuda on Saturday.  Around that time, the trough is expected
to lift out, leaving Ernesto in weaker steering currents.  As a
result, a slower and likely more erratic motion to the north or
north-northeast is forecast over the weekend.  Another trough is
expected to approach the cyclone late in the weekend, and that
should cause an accelerated motion to the northeast near or east of
Atlantic Canada early next week.  The NHC track forecast is a touch
to the east and a little slower than the previous one through its
passage near Bermuda to come into better agreement with the latest
consensus aids.

It seems likely that Ernesto will strengthen some more during the
next 12 to 24 hours as it is expected to remain in conducive
environmental conditions of low wind shear, upper-level diffluence,
a relatively moist airmass, and over warm waters during that time.
Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear and gradually cooler
waters should cause a slow weakening trend.  However, baroclinic
influences could offset some of the weakening, which is why the
official forecast shows little change in strength during the 48- to
72-hour time frame.  Ernesto is forecast to complete extratropical
transition by day 5, when it will likely be embedded within the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA model.

[wthrmn654]

It picked up 1 mph sped Movement wise lol

[wthrmn654]

I swear it looks like that front is taking it north east faster..

[GaWx]

Since 1939 the wettest TC at Bermuda was in October of 1939, which produced 7.35”, which may be less than one would think. Thus the 6-12” amounts being forecasted are quite ominous in relation to history:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Wettest_tropical_cyclones_in_Bermuda

 This very heavy rainfall risk is high due to a combo of expected slow movement nearby, large size, and (near) record warm SSTs possibly leading to extra high PWATs.

0Z Euro: 8” E end to 11” W end. 

[NotSureWeather]

Looks like it’s dying. Whole west side is basically gone. Front is ripping it apart. Some Bermuda Triangle voodoo?

[WinterWolf]

Minimal Cane…the hype on this thing far exceeded its actual performance.  Sad part is that this seems to happen more and more. 

[NorthHillsWx]

One word summarizes this storm: meh

[NorthHillsWx]

Imo the delayed Caribbean development ultimately doomed this one to mediocrity. It didn’t have enough time to mix out dry air while conditions were right and its starting point was too low so it developed into a Cinnabon storm. Unless these are given lots of time they usually go the same route as this one- a broad storm with a hollow core. Now it’s experiencing the SW shear and it’s time to strengthen has ceased. That being said, this will be a solid hit on Bermuda. It won’t take the eye making a rare direct hit to have big impacts with the broad eyewall. And what recon has shown is a large system with a ton of wind energy, so higher elevations will experience prolonged hurricane force winds and waves and surge will be amplified as well. But it was clear that NHC sticking to high end of intensity forecasts on this one was probably not going to pan out. A prolific wave producer for the east coast- I’m currently in nags head and about to hit the water somewhere south of here. Going to be great surfing this afternoon. 

[wthrmn654]

 

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Imo the delayed Caribbean development ultimately doomed this one to mediocrity. It didn’t have enough time to mix out dry air while conditions were right and its starting point was too low so it developed into a Cinnabon storm. Unless these are given lots of time they usually go the same route as this one- a broad storm with a hollow core. Now it’s experiencing the SW shear and it’s time to strengthen has ceased. That being said, this will be a solid hit on Bermuda. It won’t take the eye making a rare direct hit to have big impacts with the broad eyewall. And what recon has shown is a large system with a ton of wind energy, so higher elevations will experience prolonged hurricane force winds and waves and surge will be amplified as well. But it was clear that NHC sticking to high end of intensity forecasts on this one was probably not going to pan out. A prolific wave producer for the east coast- I’m currently in nags head and about to hit the water somewhere south of here. Going to be great surfing this afternoon. 

This should go on Ernesto’s Wikipedia page as its official obituary. Well done!  

[wthrmn654]

Years ago I thought there was a saying about one of the letters in the alphabet of names being one that's not good with tropical systems.  Lol it may of been the letter E storms 

 

None the less, Ernesto tropical career has been one that was never really successful only 2 times if i remember the wiki Stat from yesterday,did it became a cane.

[wthrmn654]

The fact that the dry air was persistent for 24hrs was red flag#2. Red flag#1 was the extremely far movement, I without a doubt think has it been moving gals of its speed orginally say 7,8 mphs, it would of also been able to explode and erode the dry air. That thing was moving so fast, kept getting into New dry air it would seem around the time it finally absorbed and was getting is act better. 

[wthrmn654]

500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

Ernesto's strengthening trend has seemingly halted overnight.  The 
cloud pattern near the center has become less organized, and the 
system appears to be struggling with dry air again with some eyewall 
erosion in the western semicircle.  Still, the convective banding 
in the eastern side where the previous aircraft mission found the 
peak winds remains deep and well-defined, suggesting that Ernesto 
hasn't lost much strength.  The initial wind speed is kept at 85 kt 
for this advisory, a bit above the latest satellite estimates, 
pending the upcoming Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
mission this morning.

The environment near Ernesto could support some strengthening today. 
However, the most noticeable change in the overnight intensity 
guidance aids is that almost all of them are showing more shear 
today than previously expected.  This shear, combined with the 
environmental dry air, has led to this cycle's intensity forecast 
values being a lot lower than 6 h ago.  Given current trends, the 
NHC prediction has been decreased from the last forecast, and is 
still on the high side of the guidance.  It is worth noting that 
despite the peak wind speed reductions, the forecast size is 
generally larger than the previous forecast, so the 
life-threatening hazards from Ernesto are unchanged. After the 
hurricane passes Bermuda, there could be a brief window for some 
re-intensification in lighter shear conditions plus favorable trough 
influences before Ernesto crosses into cool waters, and little 
change was made at longer range.

[wthrmn654]

This storm is just so backwards and confusing with the pressure drops yet semi crazy winds on only half of it lol. 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

This storm is just so backwards and confusing with the pressure drops yet semi crazy winds on only half of it lol. 

 

What this tells me is that the future looks bright for a large ocean storm when it becomes extratropical into the North Atlantic. 

[wthrmn654]

Noaa 49, noaa 43 are en route with teal somewhere in the storm can't pick him up on flight tracking sadly

[wthrmn654]

34knts

50knts

64knts

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

It would appear/ seem that its going north east, does it go to the south/ east of Bermuda? 

[wthrmn654]

2nd recon pass suggest pressure is up to 971.

[olafminesaw]

31 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Getting a bit of a "halficane" look

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

What this tells me is that the future looks bright for a large ocean storm when it becomes extratropical into the North Atlantic. 

This is actually a very interesting setup for swell generation aimed at the east coast. Normally in a more symmetrical hurricane swell aimed at the east coast which is generated in the SE quadrant has to pass through equally strong opposing winds as it passes through the NW quadrant knocking down wave heights significantly. In this case there is much less opposing wind so swell will be free to exit. This weekend should be very interesting as beaches are still in full summer swing. Usually these types of events occur in September when the crowds are gone.

[wthrmn654]

Noaa plane showing 967mb.. wtf

 

This is like a zombie cane 

[wthrmn654]

They kinda found an eye earlier lol? 

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

Ernesto appears to be feeling the effects of vertical wind shear 
this morning. The structure on satellite has become more asymmetric 
with the coldest cloud tops shifted to the east of the center fixes 
being made by an ongoing Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission, which 
also found a 50-mile-wide eye open to the southwest. Despite the 
degraded satellite appearance, the aircraft still found 700-mb 
flight-level winds up to 98 kt, with peak SFMR-derived winds of 76 
kt in the southeast quadrant of Ernesto. A blend of these data 
still supports an intensity of 85 kt this advisory, though this 
could be generous. The hurricane remains quite large with 
tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 240 n mi southeast of the 
center.

Ernesto continues to move north-northeast, estimated at 330/12 kt. 
The deep-layer trough that has been initially influencing Ernesto's 
motion is already starting to leave the tropical cyclone behind, and 
the track guidance indicates the hurricane will begin to slow its 
forward motion over the next day or so while continuing to move 
north-northeastward. After that time, another shortwave trough 
currently over the upper Midwest U.S. is forecast to dig 
southeastward, which should ultimately result in Ernesto 
accelerating northeastward around the periphery of the subtropical 
ridge to its southeast. The track guidance this cycle is quite close 
to the prior forecast, and the NHC track forecast only has minor 
changes compared to the previous cycle.

Vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is already up to 25 
kt or greater, and this shear is likely to persist for another 12 to 
24 h. Thus the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a little more 
weakening, though it should be noted some of the hurricane regional 
models show Ernesto weakening below hurricane intensity over the 
next 36 h.  Thereafter, as the first trough bypasses the system, the 
forecast shear decreases while the tropical cyclone remains over 28 
C or warmer sea surface temperatures. Thus, there remains an 
opportunity for Ernesto to re-intensify before it reaches the north 
wall of the Gulf Stream by early next week.  However, extratropical 
transition will likely be underway shortly after it crosses over 
much cooler waters after 72 h, with the latest NHC forecast showing 
the system becoming extratropical at 96 h.