Hurricane Ernesto

[wthrmn654]

12z shear update

[wthrmn654]

entire right side is winds of 64+knots

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Could this possible pull a humberto and peak in 70+ knots of shear

[wthrmn654]

unless I'm mistaken its northwest side just started interacting with the front? the clouds that were wrapping around all but vanished as soon as it touched it. that and looks like it just ran into some more decent dry air....

[Tezeta]

Cinnabun fish storm. 
 

What happened to hyperactive Armageddon? 

[BoulderWX]

12 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Cinnabun fish storm. 
 

What happened to hyperactive Armageddon? 

Only people who don’t understand how hurricane forecasts work called it Armageddon. Everyone else knew that indications for and still are for an above average hurricane season. This happens every single year. 

[WinterWolf]

Hype sells…especially to the ignorant. 

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

a little fun and games but historically speaking, ernesto has never materialized to much usually lol

• Ernesto

• 1982 – formed southwest of Bermuda and dissipated without threatening land.
• 1988 – formed east of Bermuda and did not cause any damage or casualties.
• 1994 – formed southwest of Cape Verde and dissipated without affecting land.
• 2000 – lasted for two days and did not threaten land.
• 2006 – a Category 1 hurricane which formed near the Windward Islands, made landfall in Haiti and Cuba, struck Florida and the Carolinas, and killed at least 11 people.
• 2012 – a Category 2 hurricane which made landfall in Mexico.
• 2018 – formed in the North Atlantic and dissipated without affecting land.
• 2024 – currently active.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

a little fun and games but historically speaking, ernesto has never materialized to much usually lol

• Ernesto

• 1982 – formed southwest of Bermuda and dissipated without threatening land.
• 1988 – formed east of Bermuda and did not cause any damage or casualties.
• 1994 – formed southwest of Cape Verde and dissipated without affecting land.
• 2000 – lasted for two days and did not threaten land.
• 2006 – a Category 1 hurricane which formed near the Windward Islands, made landfall in Haiti and Cuba, struck Florida and the Carolinas, and killed at least 11 people.
• 2012 – a Category 2 hurricane which made landfall in Mexico.
• 2018 – formed in the North Atlantic and dissipated without affecting land.
• 2024 – currently active.

now compare that with humberto

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

unless I'm mistaken its northwest side just started interacting with the front? the clouds that were wrapping around all but vanished as soon as it touched it. that and looks like it just ran into some more decent dry air....

The dry air never left its feeding into Ernesto from the Southwest and west. The first signs of trouble was down sloping on the north coast of Hatti as it passed by and now the dry air intrusions continue, I think Ernesto's is probably going to be capped at 100 mph.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

boy Ernesto is struggling nonstop it looks like the dry air has been able to go nearly all the way around the storm itself. with no end in sight, visually speaking in terms of satellite views...

For Bermuda’s sake, I’m hopeful it continues to struggle even though they handle storms relatively well.
 

One thing that ACE and SS scale don’t reflect on well is diameter of strong winds/size of storm. Ernesto may not make it to cat 3 or possibly even cat 2 though that’s only a small chance. Regardless, it being large a large cat 2 can be more impactful than a small cat 3, for example. Highest winds are normally just in a very small area, a small portion of the storm. Joe Bastardi has a “Power and Impact Scale” that is better reflective of impact than the SS scale. I’m saying that even though I’m not a big fan of his due to cold/snowy E US winter bias and not believing in AGW as significant. But on this I think he’s 100% right.

[Rjay]

50 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

now compare that with humberto

Strike 2 (256)

[wthrmn654]

A lot of grey areas and to many unknowns Imo for the intensity forecasts to 
materialize as right now  that dry air will not let go and has been super consistent...


Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

The inner core of Ernesto continues to be plagued by dry air 
intrusion.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Ernesto 
has yet to close off an eyewall.  While the minimum central sea 
level pressure has fallen to an estimated 972 mb based on dropsonde 
data, the maximum flight-level winds are still at 86 kt, similar to 
the earlier mission.  Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 
75 kt for this advisory cycle.

 

Warm waters and relatively low vertical wind shear should allow 
Ernesto to gradually intensify over the next 12 hours or so.  
Still, the mid-level atmospheric moisture is expected to be marginal 
and the system could continue to experience dry air intrusions.  
Global models suggest that while the vertical wind shear could 
begin to increase within a day, Ernesto may be positioned in a 
region relative to the departing trough where it could capitalize on 
enhanced outflow and continue to strength.  By the weekend, 
atmospheric conditions should become less favorable and gradually 
weaken the hurricane.  Still, Ernesto is expected to remain a 
powerful hurricane as it moves north of Bermuda.  Little changes 
have been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast, which lies 
near the top of the model guidance envelope.

[wthrmn654]

pretty impressive, the microwave loop brought the winds up to 75knots and has not moved up or down for a several hours...

[wthrmn654]

i mean i give this little guy credit, i think its trying to make an eye.. and it just about has absorbed the dry air from today but it would seem, depending what mode you select, that the left side might have another round of dry air starting to get wrapped into it again. seems there's 2 rotations in the clouds surrounding him.. inner spinning counterclockwise with the surrounding spinning clockwise. 

[wthrmn654]

EDIT: just checking the better sat map, deft more dry air about to get wrapped in from the west side 

[Torch Tiger]

Intensity forecasting (esp. beyond D3) is a B

[wthrmn654]

Big big looking slug of dry air getting wrapped in south west side now, I do believe. Closest to the center. 

Quite ragged looking, imo

 

[wthrmn654]

972.9mb recon pressure? 

[wthrmn654]

968mb

Could be rough looking but being better ish? 

[wthrmn654]

 

[wthrmn654]

Pressure matches the average mslp for a category 2 hurricane, which has winds of 96mph or higher, yet the winds are still not matching yet.. and are still sub par with only about 71-75  knots to the east of eye area. 

[NotSureWeather]

Trying for an eye? Looks close, has cleared out a decent amount.

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

Just now, NotSureWeather said:

Trying for an eye? Looks close, has cleared out a decent amount.

I'm not sure, sat loops have been al over the place and I think that's a bit of the dry air and attempt maybe? Hard to say. 

[wthrmn654]

The lack of lightening around the center on sat tracking is just weird. 

Usually there's tons of thunderstorms around a good center. 

Found a Advected Layer Precipitable Water map. 

[wthrmn654]

8 pm update 90 mph. 

[wthrmn654]

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

AL, 05, 2024081600, , BEST, 0, 266N, 683W, 85, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 230, 110, 130, 1011, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, AL, 05, 2024081600, , BEST, 0, 266N, 683W, 85, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 70, 60, 50, 1011, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, AL, 05, 2024081600, , BEST, 0, 266N, 683W, 85, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 25, 1011, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,