Hurricane Ernesto

[wthrmn654]

 

[wthrmn654]

Recon finished, only did 2 passes, and 2nd pass pressure was up to 983.

[GaWx]

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
APPROACHING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 68.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES




Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

The satellite structure of Ernesto has somewhat improved tonight. A 
series of earlier SSMI/S 91 GHz passive microwave images showed the 
formation of a mid-level eye, and there have been recent hints of an 
eye trying to emerge in proxy-visible satellite images. Data from 
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has 
fallen to 982 mb, and the aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level 
winds of 76 kt in the northeast quadrant. Based on these data, the 
initial intensity is set at 70 kt. The wind field remains quite 
broad and asymmetric, with the strongest aircraft winds well to the 
northeast of the center. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission 
into Ernesto is scheduled for tomorrow morning.  

Ernesto is now moving north-northwestward at 330/14 kt. The 
hurricane will continue on a north-northwestward to northward motion 
during the next day or so while moving through a break in the 
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The global models agree 
the upper trough that weakened the ridge will not capture Ernesto. 
As a result, Ernesto will move slower to the north-northeast and 
north while the hurricane approaches and moves near Bermuda Friday 
night and Saturday. Later this weekend, a second trough will move 
across the eastern U.S., and Ernesto should accelerate northeastward 
early next week within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of 
this feature. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the 
previous one, as the track guidance remains in good overall 
agreement. It is still too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's 
center will move to Bermuda this weekend, but warnings will likely 
be required for the island on Thursday.

While there is still evidence of some drier air nearby Ernesto, the 
very warm ocean waters and weak to moderate shear should promote 
some strengthening during the next couple of days. This is supported 
by the bulk of the intensity guidance, and the regional hurricane 
models still favor Ernesto reaching major hurricane intensity on 
Friday. The latest NHC prediction remains on the high end of the 
guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus. Some 
gradual weakening is forecast thereafter as Ernesto moves into a 
drier, more sheared environment. There are some indications that 
positive interaction with the second upper trough could cause 
Ernesto's intensity to level off or even slightly increase during 
the 60-96 h time period while still over warm waters. By 120 h, the 
model fields suggest Ernesto will be on the verge of losing tropical 
characteristics while accelerating over cooler waters.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 23.0N 68.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 24.7N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 26.8N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 28.6N 67.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 30.5N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 32.2N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 34.0N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 38.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[GaWx]

 Again the ICON (0Z) has a huge hit on Bermuda with the eye barely missing it to the W. SLP of center again drops  to the low 940s and rainfall is 16”, which I think would be a big record-breaker. Hopefully it won’t be this extreme there. It then turns NE and skims far SE Newfoundland.

[wthrmn654]

Oh man, that dry air really got wrapped around the southern side, just looking at the latest loop.

[wthrmn654]

 

[wthrmn654]

[GaWx]

1) 0Z Euro: 100 miles W of Bermuda to SE Newfoundland

2) 0Z UKMET: 25 miles W of Bermuda then misses Canada
HURRICANE ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 68.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2024 0 22.3N 68.7W 993 48
1200UTC 15.08.2024 12 24.5N 69.4W 989 52
0000UTC 16.08.2024 24 26.4N 68.7W 984 50
1200UTC 16.08.2024 36 28.6N 67.5W 984 54
0000UTC 17.08.2024 48 30.6N 65.9W 980 55
1200UTC 17.08.2024 60 32.1N 65.2W 975 57
0000UTC 18.08.2024 72 33.0N 65.1W 977 58
1200UTC 18.08.2024 84 34.4N 65.0W 980 56
0000UTC 19.08.2024 96 36.9N 64.0W 972 64
1200UTC 19.08.2024 108 40.3N 61.7W 967 67
0000UTC 20.08.2024 120 43.8N 57.2W 971 66
1200UTC 20.08.2024 132 46.7N 49.5W 987 47
0000UTC 21.08.2024 144 49.8N 39.6W 989 43
1200UTC 21.08.2024 156 53.6N 28.1W 977 42
0000UTC 22.08.2024 168 POST-TROPICAL

[Windspeed]

I had failed to notice this earlier, but look at this outflow setup by tomorrow evening. Obviously, westerly mid-level shear from the approaching mid-level trough (Midwest region) has not yet impacted Ernesto, but the upper trough is positioned perfectly to evacuate airmass to the NNE. Additionally, there is a developing TUTT to evacuate airmass to the south. So we have dual poleward outflow jets being modeled here. If Ernesto times this right, given the abnormally warm SSTs it will be traversing over, potential exists for a decent rapid intensification phase at some point today.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Maybe it becomes a borderline Cat 4. 

It looks very nice on satellite. I think Cat 3 is a given. 

[Windspeed]

As a sidenote to the 00z GFS run I used for that image above, it again not only flirted with a direct hit on Bermuda as in previous runs but actually makes landfall. Again, just one operational run with plenty of lead time to go. It would be pretty impressive for such a small geographic location to get accurately modeled for a direct impact even 48-60 hours lead time. Major grains of salt here!! This most likely will not occur, but it is interesting to note nonetheless.

[wthrmn654]

 

[wthrmn654]

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe it becomes a borderline Cat 4. 

It looks very nice on satellite. I think Cat 3 is a given. 

That’s what I was saying lol 

[wthrmn654]

5 am update

While the shear near Ernesto remains low, a large dry slot continues 
to wrap near the core, preventing anything other than slow 
intensification so far.  Most of the guidance gradually intensifies 
the system during the next day or so as the very warm waters and 
light-to-moderate shear outweigh the effects of the dry air.  Little 
change was made to the intensity forecast,

[wthrmn654]

It does not look very pretty on satellite

[wthrmn654]

[hawkeye_wx]

The storm has broadened, so the core is lagging a bit.  Recon is finding only tropical storm wind on the west side, and even within the core on the right side.  Hurricane-force wind is displaced well east of the center.

[Windspeed]

The storm has broadened, so the core is lagging a bit.  Recon is finding only tropical storm wind on the west side, and even within the core on the right side.  Hurricane-force wind is displaced well east of the center.

Pretty large dry slot circulating around Ernesto's core. That feature has stubborn persistence and will most likely delay any period of significant intensification until the stable airmass mixes out. The pressure has dropped some since last night due to persistent convective bursting in Ernesto's core, but the gradient isn't tightening up as long as that dry alot remains and the outer bands are slow to contract. At any rate, this is good news for Bermuda. The upper-level environment is very condusive for a strong hurricane as discussed previously. A steady state to slow strengthening into tonight. If the dry slot does eventually mix out and contraction begins, then perhaps more significant intensification tomorrow per official forecast.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

45 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

54 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The storm has broadened, so the core is lagging a bit.  Recon is finding only tropical storm wind on the west side, and even within the core on the right side.  Hurricane-force wind is displaced well east of the center.

 

Pretty large dry slot circulating around Ernesto's core. That feature has stubborn persistence and will most likely delay any period of significant intensification until the stable airmass mixes out. The pressure has dropped some since last night due to persistent convective bursting in Ernesto's core, but the gradient isn't tightening up as long as that dry alot remains and the outer bands are slow to contract. At any rate, this is good news for Bermuda. The upper-level environment is very condusive for a strong hurricane as discussed previously. A steady state to slow strengthening into tonight. If the dry slot does eventually mix out and contraction begins, then perhaps more significant intensification tomorrow per official forecast.

 

thoughts, or too bearish?

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Is it still an ERC is there is no longer an eyewall? Normally forming these huge eyewalls can be very messy, but the weakness of the inner core may actually play out in its favor.

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

It does not look very pretty on satellite

Not a nice fresh delicious cinnamon roll. The one that's been sitting in the case at Panera all morning, growing steadily more stale.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

 

[smokeybandit]

27 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Not a nice fresh delicious cinnamon roll. The one that's been sitting in the case at Panera all morning, growing steadily more stale.

I came for hurricane coverage, I left with reading the above post in a Maya Angalou voice

[Normandy]

2 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

I came for hurricane coverage, I left with reading the above post in a Maya Angalou voice

Motherfucker that made me laugh so hard kudos

[wthrmn654]

boy Ernesto is struggling nonstop it looks like the dry air has been able to go nearly all the way around the storm itself. with no end in sight, visually speaking in terms of satellite views...

[wthrmn654]

if Ernesto is to really get cranking before Bermuda, it still has some time, but that window is closing. 

 

Model guidance is still suggesting that some continued gradual
strengthening is possible in the next day or so.  The deep-layer
vertical wind shear is forecast to be weak to moderate, and Ernesto
should be over warm waters for the next few days.  However, the
broad nature of the current circulation, coupled with some dry air
ingestion, will likely slow the intensification rate.  Ernesto is
now forecast to peak at 95 kt in 24 h, which is near the top of the
model guidance envelope.  Beyond a day, the shear is expected to
increase and induce gradually weakening, though the warm waters and
positive interaction with the upper-level trough will likely allow
Ernesto remain a powerful hurricane as it moves north of Bermuda.

[wthrmn654]

currently 2 noaa planes are doing hard core recon, ones been in the storm for a little bit doing star pattern upper air recon 

 

2nd plane is just reaching the storm will be doing lower air recon. 

[wthrmn654]

poor spiraling storm!  it slowed down 2 mph but still cruising along at a good clip. 

 

[wthrmn654]

974mb first eye pass. so far aren't all that impressive but it came in from the northwest.  Also where the dry air shows up closest to the center on radar, the winds are much lower versus earlier recon of the same sector. strongest winds however are still located farther out to the southeast same place as earlier recon.