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Hurricane Ernesto


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Just now, Windspeed said:
4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:
Let's remember,  need a couple runs of consistency to raise confidence level for anything.  Also some of the crazy pressures that some models show usually so not get that low... atleast in recent memory. 

Yes, the big caveat here is that just like operationals often times underperforming with TC intensity, as is their inherent design (not a flaw), TC models often times overperform. There are always caveats and to err on the side of caution. Nothing beats in situ data. We'll need recon to verify if Ernesto is definitely going to start any rapid deepening tonight or obviously a substantial increase in ADT. We don't even have a clear eye yet, though that is probably coming.

8 pm shows 80mph winds. 

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14 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I wouldn't focus too much on the overall run-time intensity for the operationals. Granted, sure, if they're also showing rapid deepening, then it bears notice. But generally speaking, OPs do not handle TC intensity fluctuations as well as the TC models, especially the HAFS suites. I think it's important to mention that virtually all of the TC models do bring Ernesto to major hurricane status.

The most recent runs:
HWRF - 955mb
HMON - 950mb
HAFS-A - 944mb
HAFS-B - 935mb

Obviously, I'm hoping that the HAFS suites are overdoing Ernesto a bit here. However, given that shear is relaxing over the next few days and the core will be turning into a more diffluent environment with trough interaction, at least prior to an increase in mid-level SW shear, the window is there for rapid intensification. Can't rule out Ernesto overperforming while atmospheric conditions are condusive. SSTs are definitely supportive unless Ernesto slows down or stalls (upwelling).

Do you remember Franklin from last year?

Bro was expected to be a 3 on the intensity models, hurricane models bombed him out to a 4

Ended up being a high 4

So that's why I don't bother too much on intensity models, they are often conservative

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Just now, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Do you remember Franklin from last year?

Bro was expected to be a 3 on the intensity models, hurricane models bombed him out to a 4

Ended up being a high 4

So that's why I don't bother too much on intensity models, they are often conservative

Your a category 9 hurricane on the intensity level...

 My gosh 

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Franklin wasn't expected to be more than a 3 on that plot (peakwise) and ended up peaking at 150mph JFL.
Not a molecule
That doesn't mean that Ernesto will peak like Franklin. It's not the same setup. The point I think is trying to be made here is that the models are a mere tool and a weigh of potential. They are often times errors. No need in hugging one suite of runs like it is definitely going to occur IRL. No need to take offense. It's all a learning process. You're not being picked on, sir. As such, why I posted them above is to show potential. But I also made aware that they are very likely being overdone. At least that is my hope. 950s seems very realistic. 930s, not so much.
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4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

That doesn't mean that Ernesto will peak like Franklin. It's not the same setup. The point I think is trying to be made here is that the models are a mere tool and a weigh of potential. They are often times errors. No need in hugging one suite of runs like it is definitely going to occur IRL. No need to take offense. It's all a learning process. You're not being picked on, sir. As such, why I posted them above is to show potential. But I also made aware that they are very likely being overdone. At least that is my hope. 950s seems very realistic. 930s, no so much.

 

Yeah that's an extreme example + I remember that 1 hurricane that peaked as a high end 3 in 60 knots of shear on the last day of being tropical in 2019

 

2019al09_diagplot_201909191800.png

 

dnr

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Just now, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Yeah that's an extreme example + I remember that 1 hurricane that peaked as a high end 3 in 60 knots of shear on the last day of being tropical in 2019

Seriously please stop.  We are begging you.  

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Quite the burst of convection that managed to rotate upshear and around the center. I would expect another burst on the eastern side of the center soon.

You can see dry air getting ingested to the south via the northwesterly shear - it is trying to rotate into the center around 69W 22N. The inner structure of the core is a bit of a mystery right now due to the lack of new microwave passes, let's see if Ernesto can wall off the dry air

3f923fe8-efff-463a-8043-2fe60709f80e.gif

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12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Seriously please stop.  We are begging you.  

He had the signs of being an annoyance early on….he’s young and inexperienced. Hopefully he learns some things, or everybody will be ignoring him. Ya hate to see it. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

He had the signs of being an annoyance early on….he’s young and inexperienced. Hopefully he learns some things, or everybody will be ignoring him. Ya hate to see it. 

If not,  moderators will likely step in. He's not learning and clearly thinks it's a joke.... sadly. 

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3 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

I don't mind someone being silly and a little off topic here and there. I definitely do it too. Thing that did it for me was being rude to people for no reason.

Yes, within reason is always fine. He’s been escalating though, and the clowning is just down right annoying now. 

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