wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Just now, Windspeed said: 4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Let's remember, need a couple runs of consistency to raise confidence level for anything. Also some of the crazy pressures that some models show usually so not get that low... atleast in recent memory. Yes, the big caveat here is that just like operationals often times underperforming with TC intensity, as is their inherent design (not a flaw), TC models often times overperform. There are always caveats and to err on the side of caution. Nothing beats in situ data. We'll need recon to verify if Ernesto is definitely going to start any rapid deepening tonight or obviously a substantial increase in ADT. We don't even have a clear eye yet, though that is probably coming. 8 pm shows 80mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Just now, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Who? Also On August 28th he peaked at 150 mph JFL You Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: You Franklin wasn't expected to be more than a 3 on that plot (peakwise) and ended up peaking at 150mph JFL. Not a molecule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Who is this guy?! His names on Google searches.... James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Thank god for the ignore option... 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 minute ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Who? Also On August 28th he peaked at 150 mph DNRD Speed was slower and it had 0 dry air or shear top contend with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 14 minutes ago, Windspeed said: I wouldn't focus too much on the overall run-time intensity for the operationals. Granted, sure, if they're also showing rapid deepening, then it bears notice. But generally speaking, OPs do not handle TC intensity fluctuations as well as the TC models, especially the HAFS suites. I think it's important to mention that virtually all of the TC models do bring Ernesto to major hurricane status. The most recent runs: HWRF - 955mb HMON - 950mb HAFS-A - 944mb HAFS-B - 935mb Obviously, I'm hoping that the HAFS suites are overdoing Ernesto a bit here. However, given that shear is relaxing over the next few days and the core will be turning into a more diffluent environment with trough interaction, at least prior to an increase in mid-level SW shear, the window is there for rapid intensification. Can't rule out Ernesto overperforming while atmospheric conditions are condusive. SSTs are definitely supportive unless Ernesto slows down or stalls (upwelling). Do you remember Franklin from last year? Bro was expected to be a 3 on the intensity models, hurricane models bombed him out to a 4 Ended up being a high 4 So that's why I don't bother too much on intensity models, they are often conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 minute ago, NotSureWeather said: Thank god for the ignore option... I forgot about that button, time to press ignore myself. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Just now, wthrmn654 said: Speed was slower and it had 0 dry air or shear top contend with. and the speed of ernesto will slow down around approach to bermuda, dnr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Just now, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Do you remember Franklin from last year? Bro was expected to be a 3 on the intensity models, hurricane models bombed him out to a 4 Ended up being a high 4 So that's why I don't bother too much on intensity models, they are often conservative Your a category 9 hurricane on the intensity level... My gosh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Franklin wasn't expected to be more than a 3 on that plot (peakwise) and ended up peaking at 150mph JFL. Not a moleculeThat doesn't mean that Ernesto will peak like Franklin. It's not the same setup. The point I think is trying to be made here is that the models are a mere tool and a weigh of potential. They are often times errors. No need in hugging one suite of runs like it is definitely going to occur IRL. No need to take offense. It's all a learning process. You're not being picked on, sir. As such, why I posted them above is to show potential. But I also made aware that they are very likely being overdone. At least that is my hope. 950s seems very realistic. 930s, not so much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Speed was slower and it had 0 dry air or shear top contend with. Muh shear + Humberto peaked in 60 kts of shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 4 minutes ago, Windspeed said: That doesn't mean that Ernesto will peak like Franklin. It's not the same setup. The point I think is trying to be made here is that the models are a mere tool and a weigh of potential. They are often times errors. No need in hugging one suite of runs like it is definitely going to occur IRL. No need to take offense. It's all a learning process. You're not being picked on, sir. As such, why I posted them above is to show potential. But I also made aware that they are very likely being overdone. At least that is my hope. 950s seems very realistic. 930s, no so much. Yeah that's an extreme example + I remember that 1 hurricane that peaked as a high end 3 in 60 knots of shear on the last day of being tropical in 2019 dnr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Just now, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Yeah that's an extreme example + I remember that 1 hurricane that peaked as a high end 3 in 60 knots of shear on the last day of being tropical in 2019 Seriously please stop. We are begging you. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 That just eliminated more than a third of this entire thread... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 9 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Thank god for the ignore option... Pssst...Where's the ignore button ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Quite the burst of convection that managed to rotate upshear and around the center. I would expect another burst on the eastern side of the center soon. You can see dry air getting ingested to the south via the northwesterly shear - it is trying to rotate into the center around 69W 22N. The inner structure of the core is a bit of a mystery right now due to the lack of new microwave passes, let's see if Ernesto can wall off the dry air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Pssst...Where's the ignore button ? Hover over their picture or name and it should pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Seriously please stop. We are begging you. He had the signs of being an annoyance early on….he’s young and inexperienced. Hopefully he learns some things, or everybody will be ignoring him. Ya hate to see it. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 minute ago, NotSureWeather said: Hover over their picture or name and it should pop up. Oh I'm on mobile, I found how to manually add names thrive the account area.. thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: He had the signs of being an annoyance early on….he’s young and inexperienced. Hopefully he learns some things, or everybody will be ignoring him. Ya hate to see it. If not, moderators will likely step in. He's not learning and clearly thinks it's a joke.... sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 CDO has warmed some and pressure has come up a bit in latest pass. Probably temporary, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Just now, wthrmn654 said: If not, moderators will likely step in. I don't mind someone being silly and a little off topic here and there. I definitely do it too. Thing that did it for me was being rude to people for no reason. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Looking at the recon, when they tag the drops as max wind band, are they referring to surface level winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 3 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: I don't mind someone being silly and a little off topic here and there. I definitely do it too. Thing that did it for me was being rude to people for no reason. Yes, within reason is always fine. He’s been escalating though, and the clowning is just down right annoying now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Alright then, back to tracking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: Improving for sure but it's been that western side struggling for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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