Hurricane Ernesto

[wthrmn654]

I think he's got some dry air issues again. 

[wthrmn654]

@CurlyHeadBarrett trolling posts is frowned Upon @Rjay

[Windspeed]

Ernesto's structure has improved, and most remote sensing data supports the upgrade back to hurricane status. It does have some characteristics of a reformed core eye band, if intermediately broken. However, I don't think the recent convective bursting is strong enough for any substantial strengthening back to Category 2. Reintensification in line with some increase in ADT values is currently around 75 kts / 85 mph. If it were to continue bursting and wrapping up, sure, perhaps Category 2 is possible again tonight, though the window for this is closing.

[NotSureWeather]

Probably the best it has looked satellite wise.

 

Just aesthetically at least.

[Windspeed]

RE: Window for intensification. Ernesto is not in a bad environment as far as current shear and upper outflow, and it still has roughly 9-12 hours over heat content that would support further strengthening. My skepticism against more significant intensification, however, continues to be stable airmass emplaced around the circulation and core. If Ernesto's eyewall continues to gain enough convection and can shield off any intrusion or ingestion tonight, perhaps it may get officially classified Category 2 again prior to the core moving over the sub 26C° isotherm. But upper tropospheric temperatures aren't really cold enough to support deep convection once SSTs get down below that threshold. We have certainly seen plenty of examples in past years of TCs under a cold pool aloft in association with upper troughs where evaporation and lapse rates continue to support deep convection. I don't think that will be the case here. Ernesto should begin to fall apart once it passes north of 26°C.

[Windspeed]

Ernesto is giving us a final grunt before moving over cooler SSTs. The satellite presentation, even if short-lived, is the best it has looked since its initial intensification north of the Antilles. As such, ADT numbers are spiking upwards. The current trend may not persist until the 11AM AST advisory package to see any official upgrade in category, but clearly, the hurricane has got its act together this morning. There's even lightning showing up in the eastern eyewall.

[OSUmetstud]

So close to a real good smack. 

 

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Ernesto is giving us a final grunt before moving over cooler SSTs. The satellite presentation, even if short-lived, is the best it has looked since its initial intensification north of the Antilles. As such, ADT numbers are spiking upwards. The current trend may not persist until the 11AM AST advisory package to see any official upgrade in category, but clearly, the hurricane has got its act together this morning. There's even lightning showing up in the eastern eyewall.

 

[OSUmetstud]

I'm guessing they'll go with 85 kt cat 2 as of 12z best track but we'll see. That's more of a blend of tafb and cimss data. Reasonable chance it will be weaker even by the 1100 edt advisory given ssts now decreasing along the path. 

[OSUmetstud]

12z best track is 80 kt

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

WTF is this

[OSUmetstud]

18z best track is still 80 kt

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

18z best track is still 80 kt

 

Could we get a Greenland landfall?

[OSUmetstud]

20 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Could we get a Greenland landfall?

No. It's tracking well south of there. 

[WxWatcher007]

33 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

No. It's tracking well south of there. 

Will be watching the radar as it makes its closest approach. Again, good luck out there. Pretty incredible that all five TCs this season have impacted land. 

[wthrmn654]

And that's a wrap with Ernesto,  it's becoming tilted and shear is now starting to affect it with the peak already achieved. 

[etudiant]

Imho, there is little to be learned from the further evolution of Ernesto.

Rather we need to understand how come high Atlantic SSTs are not translating into more and better hurricanes.

Right now, the various forecasts appear to show little skill at best.

Does anyone have a possibly better approach? Asking, pretty please!

[OSUmetstud]

This will likely be the station with the best surface obs as Ernesto passes makes it cpa over the next few hours. 

https://capebretonweather.ca/station.html#id=001D0AE0065C

[cardinalland]

2 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Imho, there is little to be learned from the further evolution of Ernesto.

Rather we need to understand how come high Atlantic SSTs are not translating into more and better hurricanes.

Right now, the various forecasts appear to show little skill at best.

Does anyone have a possibly better approach? Asking, pretty please!

Plenty of research has been done on this question, for the general case: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

As for this year, it's been quite active up to this point, as the last eight years have been generally...

[Windspeed]

Imho, there is little to be learned from the further evolution of Ernesto.
Rather we need to understand how come high Atlantic SSTs are not translating into more and better hurricanes.
Right now, the various forecasts appear to show little skill at best.
Does anyone have a possibly better approach? Asking, pretty please!

Not every hurricane is going to rapidly intensify. In fact, most do not. We've just had so many hurricanes to go through RI over the past three decades during ASO that we've come to expect it to occur when TC/SHIPs modeling sniff out any potential. This year, so far, our three hurricanes all originated from tropical waves/disturbances that traversed the MDR during the portion of the season that is climatologically less favorable. June into the first half of August is notorious for ~700 hPa jet and easterly SAL expulsions that cross the sub-tropical Atlantic. I can not stress this enough. Sure, every two to three years, we get an early MDR TC form. But they most always fizzle out or become shredded by shear in the ECARIB graveyard. 2024 has been an anomaly like 2005 in that we have had multiple MDR waves already form into TCs and go on to become hurricanes. That doesn't mean they won't still struggle or have issues with plumes of stable airmass. Only Beryl was able to rapidly intensify because it formed at such a low latitude. Even though climatological deterrents were still in place (SAL and shear), it managed to be positioned just perfectly for those factors to be lessened.

I can remember a time when you simply did not look at the MDR for threats before August. June and July hurricanes came from the tail-end of stalled frontal boundaries in the GOM, WATL surface troughs, or WCARIB CAG/disturbance systems. Generally, the WAM, SPH and wave placement is unfavorable until the last week of August. It's therefore no surprise that we usually see an abrupt ramp up in activity just a few weeks before early September peak. Once the pattern flips for the MDR during an active season, TCs begin developing with much higher frequency and under favorable atmospheric setups for a higher chance of rapid intensification to occur. Large waves due to temporary WAM placement will moderate/moisten the MDR, and then as the SPH shifts and WAM breaks down, ITCZ placement and tropical waves around 10-15°N latitude should have a more favorable MDR to traverse. SAL is never fully eliminated but significantly lessened.

I will finish by mentioning the first time that I ever learned about SAL. The person discussing it was named John Hope. The tropical wave he was analyzing on TV was a very healthy one that eventually became a hurricane. Not just any hurricane, mind you, but Hugo. Yes, 1989, Hugo had dry air north of its circulation within its envelope. I can also recall, many years later, the early development of Isabel mixing out SAL in its rather large circulation. My point is that SAL is an environmental characteristic of the Atlantic Basin. When it's strong, it suppresses. When it is weak, it's just not as much a factor.

[OSUmetstud]

[WxWatcher007]

[Boston Bulldog]

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Powerful ET transitions are rare on radar and wow what a slug of moisture heading for the Avalon Peninsula. Interesting to see all the frontal features becoming more dominant in real time.

Big time fronto-band fueled by deep tropical moisture heading for St John's. That's gonna pack a punch.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Fast mover. Worst is already gone. 

[OSUmetstud]

This et transition is pretty fake...strictly from ssts and convection lost for now. It's still very muggy this morning here. No cool and dry air advection on the backside. 

Sig seas up to 9.6 m at hibernia and 10.3 m at hebron this morning.

https://x.com/rcbstormpost/status/1825850277015982085?t=CgGmoxq6q8_phAUbGVI5oA&s=19

 

[wthrmn654]

Some key things that made Ernesto basically an "er- nothing"  would be the following: 

●The forward movement was much higher then a normal typical TC setup.  I feel that if it was more or less going slower then 10 mph, it would of better absorbed the ocean heat and possibly not gotten into such crappy environment.  

●Dry air, dry air, dry air! That system could  not shake the dry air that was getting wrapped around it.  

 

●running into shear at various times on top of the other negative factors didn't help any. 

 

● the front it ran into kinda also hurt it to an extent. Right as it was looking and acting betterbefore Bermuda, the front started hurting it.  Again very much ties into the whole fast forward motion

 

 

[GaWx]

 Ernesto’s total ACE will end up ~15 or just under, which is near the 1991-2020 avg for a hurricane.