Hurricane Ernesto

[StantonParkHoya]

This is a non-story for Bermuda. Place is a fortress.

[Windspeed]

This is a non-story for Bermuda. Place is a fortress.

As has been discussed thoroughly in the thread, Bermuda is built to handle strong hurricanes. But you are silly to downplay this as a non-story. 17k+ are now without power, and there will still be further grid and infrastructure damage. They will most likely have any old-growth tree damage that may've survived previous storms. Additionally, there will be some roof damage regardless of the quality of building/wall supports with 80-90+ gusts occurring. We'll need to be patient and see the aftermath and damage assessment in the coming days.

It does look like the low-level vortex is going to make landfall.

[Floydbuster]

 

[Windspeed]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 170857
TCDAT5

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the center of Ernesto made landfall on the western side of Bermuda at about 430 AM AST, with the National Museum of Bermuda recently reporting light winds and a central pressure of 972 mb. The system overall has become less organized as drier air has infiltrated much of the circulation's southern semicircle. Earlier aircraft reconnaissance data supported 75-80 kt as an initial intensity, and with the degradation in the satellite imagery, 75 kt is chosen as the current intensity (and operational landfall intensity). The Air Force Hurricane Hunters should be out again in a few hours to sample the cyclone.

While the current moderate shear is forecast to weaken today, it will take some time for the vortex to recover from the dry air as it moves across warm waters north of Bermuda. Thus little change inintensity is anticipated in the short term, and re-strengthening could begin tomorrow. This should be a fairly short-lived window, however, since Ernesto will be crossing the north wall of the Gulf Stream on Monday while moving into a strong wind shear environment. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast for the work week, and Ernesto is expected to complete extratropical transition near or just east of Newfoundland. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, a bit lower in the short-term to account for recent guidance.

Ernesto has turned more to the north-northeast overnight and slowed down to about 8 kt. The motion should creep in that direction today as the hurricane is stuck in an area of lighter steering currents, waiting for the next trough to move off the U.S. East coast.  This slow motion and Ernesto's large size will cause a long duration of impacts through tonight on Bermuda.  The trough should force the cyclone to accelerate northeastward later in the weekend and early next week, taking Ernesto near Newfoundland Monday night.  The guidance is again slower than the previous cycle, so the NHC track forecast is trended in that direction. Global model fields depict that Ernesto should open into a trough, or become absorbed in a larger polar low by 120 h over the northern Atlantic ocean, thus the NHC forecast now shows the system dissipated at that time.

Key Messages:
1. Ernesto is expected to bring periods of strong winds, storm surge and battering waves on Bermuda through tonight.  A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and residents there should listen to orders from local officials.
2. Heavy rainfall from Ernesto will continue to impact Bermuda through tonight and will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island.
3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend.  Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.  Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
4. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT  17/0900Z 32.3N  64.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 33.3N  64.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 34.6N  63.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 36.6N  62.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 39.8N  61.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  19/1800Z 43.5N  57.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 47.0N  51.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/0600Z 51.5N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake

[smokeybandit]

The Bermuda webcam is still online. 

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

The Bermuda webcam is still online. 

Doesn't look bad at all honestly just sounds windy

[WxWatcher007]

Now we watch for if there’s an additional landfall in Newfoundland. It’s likely going to be close.

[OSUmetstud]

41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Now we watch for if there’s an additional landfall in Newfoundland. It’s likely going to be close.

Were going to get the rain, i feel like landfall is pretty unlikely at this point. Model agreement is excellent and if anything there's been a small trend southeast with time. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I haven’t seen anything impressive from anyone on Bermuda. Looks like this thing completely unraveled before landfall 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

Were going to get the rain, i feel like landfall is pretty unlikely at this point. Model agreement is excellent and if anything there's been a small trend southeast with time. 

Good to see you post. Best of luck up there and agree. Close graze seems most likely. 

[OSUmetstud]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Good to see you post. Best of luck up there and agree. Close graze seems most likely. 

I've done 3 briefings today with the offshore oil and gas guys, they're going to get it. Even the heavy rain with Ernesto doesn't look too scary at this point - it's moving quite quickly and there's a lack of frontal enhancement. I think max might approach 2 to 4", but models are really not wanting to spread the QPF northwest of the TC which is weird. 

 

[OSUmetstud]

I wonder if it can take advantage of tonight into tomorrow's low shear. The environment is super dry though.

 

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I wonder if it can take advantage of tonight into tomorrow's low shear. The environment is super dry though.

 

I’m guessing that whatever rebound occurs is modest at best. Given the current issues with dry air and its broad nature, I’m not sure there’s much time for it to surprise much on the intensity front.

 

[GaWx]

13 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I haven’t seen anything impressive from anyone on Bermuda. Looks like this thing completely unraveled before landfall 

 It didn’t completely unravel. It was no longer a cat 2 but it was still a full fledged cat 1. It became more or less a half-cane as far as convection was concerned but that’s not unusual once a H is N of 30N and was expected per the models.
 
 Bermuda had many gusts well into the 80s. And the storm went on for many hours due to a slowdown as it got there as well as it being large. It is just that Bermuda is thank goodness built like a fortress due to being so storm prone and can withstand winds like that with minimal damage. Even the roofs are normally made out of limestone! I’ve seen them with my own eyes on a vacation there. The majority of trees there can handle high winds relatively well. Wave action is limited by surrounding reefs and storm surges effects are limited due to hilly terrain. I thought there might be significant amounts of flash flooding in low areas inland but I haven’t heard about it. I’m waiting to see final rainfall amounts. The expected amount range has been lowered some from 6-12” to 6-9” fwiw.
 

 A storm with many gusts well into the 80s is going to wreak much more havoc in other places like in the US. And still most of Bermuda lost power.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 It didn’t completely unravel. It was no longer a cat 2 but it was still a full fledged cat 1. It became more or less a half-cane as far as convection was concerned but that’s not unusual once a H is N of 30N and was expected per the models.
 
 Bermuda had many gusts well into the 80s. And the storm went on for many hours due to a slowdown as it got there as well as it being large. It is just that Bermuda is thank goodness built like a fortress due to being so storm prone and can withstand winds like that with minimal damage. Even the roofs are normally made out of limestone! I’ve seen them with my own eyes on a vacation there. The majority of trees there can handle high winds relatively well. Wave action is limited by surrounding reefs and storm surges effects are limited due to hilly terrain. I thought there might be significant amounts of flash flooding in low areas inland but I haven’t heard about it. I’m waiting to see final rainfall amounts. The expected amount range has been lowered some from 6-12” to 6-9” fwiw.
 

 A storm with many gusts well into the 80s is going to wreak much more havoc in other places like in the US. And still most of Bermuda lost power.

The day before people were talking about it possibly being a major hurricane and it was pegged at 100 mph by NHC 12 hours before landfall so only seeing gusts into the 80’s is a collapse. I’m not saying it wasn’t impactful but I’ve watched a lot of chaser feeds and videos from the island and it was run of the mill cat 1 stuff. That’s a far cry from NHC forecast of a 105-110 mph storm over the island. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The day before people were talking about it possibly being a major hurricane and it was pegged at 100 mph by NHC 12 hours before landfall so only seeing gusts into the 80’s is a collapse. I’m not saying it wasn’t impactful but I’ve watched a lot of chaser feeds and videos from the island and it was run of the mill cat 1 stuff. That’s a far cry from NHC forecast of a 105-110 mph storm over the island. 

 Thankfully it never made major status and instead weakened to cat 1. Good news for the residents! As a near coastal resident, I hope this hitting weaker than expected is a sign for the rest of the season though I’m not betting on it. Houston already got hit pretty hard.

 Hopefully there were no casualties in Bermuda. However, many hundreds of miles away two men unfortunately drowned at Hilton Head due to rip currents being blamed on Ernesto. 

 I already mentioned there being many gusts into the 80s. But I just saw this fwiw:  

 “Earlier Saturday morning, Ernesto brought 89-mph winds and gusts of 109 mph at the National Museum of Bermuda, located west of the capital of Hamilton.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Museum_of_Bermuda
 

 Two day official rainfall was near 7”, with ~5.5” on Fri and ~1.5” on Sat. So, this wasn’t quite to the record going back 75 years. The updated NHC forecast during the early part of the storm impact had it lowered to 6-9” from 6-12”. So, good job there.

[thunderbolt]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thankfully it never made major status and instead weakened to cat 1. Good news for the residents! As a near coastal resident, I hope this hitting weaker than expected is a sign for the rest of the season though I’m not betting on it. Houston already got hit pretty hard.

 Hopefully there were no casualties in Bermuda. However, many hundreds of miles away two men unfortunately drowned at Hilton Head due to rip currents being blamed on Ernesto. 

 I already mentioned there being many gusts into the 80s. But I just saw this fwiw:  

 “Earlier Saturday morning, Ernesto brought 89-mph winds and gusts of 109 mph at the National Museum of Bermuda, located west of the capital of Hamilton.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Museum_of_Bermuda
 

 Two day official rainfall was near 7”, with ~5.5” on Fri and ~1.5” on Sat. So, this wasn’t quite to the record going back 75 years. The updated NHC forecast during the early part of the storm impact had it lowered to 6-9” from 6-12”. So, good job there.

GA, are you seeing anything else down the road coming off of Africa or homegrown

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

GA, are you seeing anything else down the road coming off of Africa or homegrown

 The ensembles have been having an intermittent modest signal for possible development in the MDR a few days after a wave comes off Africa ~8/24. So, once Ernesto loses TC status (maybe tomorrow), there will likely be about a week before the next possible TCG. The interim will be a good time to rest up for the potential onslaught coming as most days this month have had a TC bringing ACE all the way up to 51 vs normal of 16, less than 1/3 of that! This is the third highest ACE for the season to date since 1951! There will also be potential for mainly Gulf homegrown late month per JB due to a ridge over troubled waters setup. 

[smokeybandit]

Other than expected power outages, downed trees, etc, sounds like Bermuda had a relatively easy go of things.

Local authorities hope to be relatively back to normal tomorrow.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

wouldn't be surprised if this makes one last run for C2, especially with its smaller RMW and otherwise favorable conditions

[bigtenfan]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The ensembles have been having an intermittent modest signal for possible development in the MDR a few days after a wave comes off Africa ~8/24. So, once Ernesto loses TC status (maybe tomorrow), there will likely be about a week before the next possible TCG. The interim will be a good time to rest up for the potential onslaught coming as most days this month have had a TC bringing ACE all the way up to 51 vs normal of 16, less than 1/3 of that! This is the third highest ACE for the season to date since 1951! There will also be potential for mainly Gulf homegrown late month per JB due to a ridge over troubled waters setup. 

As a fellow SE coast resident ( S FL) I may be looking at this through rose colored glasses but I am pleasantly surprised by the lack of consistent Ensemble support going up to labor Day for any serious MDR development. It makes me feel like my untrained eye is missing the signals but for now I just do not see any major MDR  threats 2 weeks into the heart of the season.

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The ensembles have been having an intermittent modest signal for possible development in the MDR a few days after a wave comes off Africa ~8/24. So, once Ernesto loses TC status (maybe tomorrow), there will likely be about a week before the next possible TCG. The interim will be a good time to rest up for the potential onslaught coming as most days this month have had a TC bringing ACE all the way up to 51 vs normal of 16, less than 1/3 of that! This is the third highest ACE for the season to date since 1951! There will also be potential for mainly Gulf homegrown late month per JB due to a ridge over troubled waters setup. 

Going to start working on my annual peak season forecast soon and I think a lot of folks are sleeping on just how high end the season has been so far. Maybe we have a 2017 like theme of “quality over quantity” taking hold. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

As a fellow SE coast resident ( S FL) I may be looking at this through rose colored glasses but I am pleasantly surprised by the lack of consistent Ensemble support going up to labor Day for any serious MDR development. It makes me feel like my untrained eye is missing the signals but for now I just do not see any major MDR  threats 2 weeks into the heart of the season.

 I hope you’re right! Although the early season has been active in terms of ACE and hurricanes, I’m not emphasizing that because I’m happy about it. I’m emphasizing it because I like to talk about what has actually happened in comparison to history and don’t like to see misinformation. I love doing statistical based analyses. Nothing would make me happier than to see no more US H landfalls this season. I’d love to see huge busts to the downside vs JB, CSU, etc. I believe that many # of NS forecasts are likely going to bust too high for obvious reasons.

 Just because I post a lot about hurricanes doesn’t at all mean I’m rooting for these monsters. I post a lot about all kinds of wx (forecasting or obs) whether I want it or not and not just for my location. I had more than enough of a headache from Debby just from a partially flooded garage.

 I still feel pretty good about my 21/10/5 forecast I made for our contest.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

HURRICANE AGAIN JFL

AL, 05, 2024081818, , BEST, 0, 364N, 627W, 65, 977, HU

[bigtenfan]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I hope you’re right! Although the early season has been active in terms of ACE and hurricanes, I’m not emphasizing that because I’m happy about it. I’m emphasizing it because I like to talk about what has actually happened in comparison to history and don’t like to see misinformation. I love doing statistical based analyses. Nothing would make me happier than to see no more US H landfalls this season. I’d love to see huge busts to the downside vs JB, CSU, etc. I believe that many # of NS forecasts are likely going to bust too high for obvious reasons.

 Just because I post a lot about hurricanes doesn’t at all mean I’m rooting for these monsters. I post a lot about all kinds of wx (forecasting or obs) whether I want it or not and not just for my location. I had more than enough of a headache from Debby just from a partially flooded garage.

 I still feel pretty good about my 21/10/5 forecast I made for our contest.

I have read enough of your posts to know that your thinking is along the lines of mine. Don't mind the ACE as long as no land is threatened  I would also like to see a( high) bust on the NS  forecast.

 

I for one  am just taking it one day at a time. Every day that the ensembles do not show a  consistent threat in the next 14-15 days is one day closer to the finish line.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Ernesto looks the best it has its whole life on visible currently. Perfectly symmetrical with a nice eye. Gulf Stream OHC!

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ernesto looks the best it has its whole life on visible currently. Perfectly symmetrical with a nice eye. Gulf Stream OHC!

 

If the hurricane models are right, Ernesto should have until midday or early afternoon tomorrow to continue intensifying. However, none of the 18z models have properly initialized Ernesto’s current structure. The HAFS-B gets the closest and shows a 100-105 kt Cat 3 peak tomorrow.

[wthrmn654]

10 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

If the hurricane models are right, Ernesto should have until midday or early afternoon tomorrow to continue intensifying. However, none of the 18z models have properly initialized Ernesto’s current structure. The HAFS-B gets the closest and shows a 100-105 kt Cat 3 peak tomorrow.

You aren't seeing the bigger picture and continually keep focusing on the wrong things.  1 model versus multiple models.

[wthrmn654]

12 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

If the hurricane models are right, Ernesto should have until midday or early afternoon tomorrow to continue intensifying. However, none of the 18z models have properly initialized Ernesto’s current structure. The HAFS-B gets the closest and shows a 100-105 kt Cat 3 peak tomorrow.

The raw output form the 
hurricane-regional model guidance now all show an overnight or 
Monday morning peak intensity of 75-kt or higher in the next 12-24 
h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a bit more 
intensification overnight. However, Ernesto will quickly move over 
cooler ocean waters just after 12 h and weakening will likely be 
well underway by tomorrow afternoon.

[wthrmn654]

We can add to the fact,  it's barely intensified,  per microwave with most recent being less then an hour old.