WxWatcher007 Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 With all of the conversation in the main thread covering this wave, I figured it was time to start a dedicated thread. The theme of vigorous waves emerging in the Atlantic this season continues with a new wave in the central Atlantic. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby, located inland over the northeastern United States. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands over the tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. Any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart Models are effectively unanimous in developing this wave as it reaches the Antilles in a few days. On the ensembles, the genesis signal is robust across guidance, increasing confidence that Ernesto isn’t too far away. What has captured attention are two things. First, the potential development and intensification environment looks favorable. With high end SST anomalies and OHC, there will be fuel. In addition, the wave is currently south of SAL and has a very good moisture envelope, reducing the chances at least as of this post, that dry air won’t be a tremendous inhibitor. Shear looks manageable for the foreseeable future. The result is the guidance signaling strong development, though at different stages. The second thing is obviously the track. Again—this is something for the Antilles to watch. Guidance brings this close as early as a few days from now early next week. Longer term prospects are unclear, but this doesn’t immediately scream as a safe recurve pattern with the potential of a cutoff trough in the eastern CONUS and ridging in the Atlantic. I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to stay away from long range declarative statements. This is something to watch. It is not a bona fide threat to the continental U.S. at this time. Watch the ensembles and where/how the long range trough develops. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Legit shitting my pants if this might be a fran/fiona reincarnate as indicated on the NE forum 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9 Author Share Posted August 9 Zero reason for any concern in the U.S. yet. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 And, ludicrous to discuss op runs at range, but the euro keeps it well out to sea, which indicates the uncertainty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9 Author Share Posted August 9 I’m no mod, but please, for the love of God, let’s keep this thread to analysis, and if you can’t analyze, something that’s rooted in meaningful discussion. 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 11 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Legit shitting my pants if this might be a fran/fiona reincarnate as indicated on the NE forum WAY too early to even entertain that idea. Your best bet is to expect zero affects here. Always the safe bet if you live in SNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m no mod, but please, for the love of God, let’s keep this thread to analysis, and if you can’t analyze, something that’s rooted in meaningful discussion. Thank you Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m no mod, but please, for the love of God, let’s keep this thread to analysis, and if you can’t analyze, something that’s rooted in meaningful discussion. The SNE threats always bring out the bangers in terms of shitposting lol. I wouldn’t say there is zero reason to be concerned about a US threat tho. A signal is there for a close approach. Got to wait and see but I’m thinking a coastal scraper right now if I had to pick. Intensity will be a wildcard because of land interaction with the Antilles 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9 Author Share Posted August 9 3 minutes ago, Normandy said: The SNE threats always bring out the bangers in terms of shitposting lol. I wouldn’t say there is zero reason to be concerned about a US threat tho. A signal is there for a close approach. Got to wait and see but I’m thinking a coastal scraper right now if I had to pick. Intensity will be a wildcard because of land interaction with the Antilles I’m just saying for right now. There is definitely a signal at this lead that a close approach is possible, but at least in my mind we’re only at the wait and see (and analyze) stage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 5 minutes ago, Normandy said: The SNE threats always bring out the bangers in terms of shitposting lol. The speculation on what will be Ernesto was cagefuel if you've seen the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 12z EPS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Best bet at this point is to watch the ensembles for trends over the next 5 days or so. You will then get a general idea of what to expect with this and if it might ever become a threat to the U.S. As of now pure speculation. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 For record-keeping purposes, here are a few 12Z operational runs (most I had posted in the main thread) fwiw: -12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada. -12Z CMC: recurve E of Bermuda -12Z JMA recurve and moving N near 70W -12Z UKMET: forms NE of SE Bahamas moving N but shortly after turns NW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 23.1N 71.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 16.08.2024 156 23.9N 71.7W 1007 37 1200UTC 16.08.2024 168 24.7N 72.5W 1005 36 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 24 minutes ago, MANDA said: Best bet at this point is to watch the ensembles for trends over the next 5 days or so. You will then get a general idea of what to expect with this and if it might ever become a threat to the U.S. As of now pure speculation. Latest euro ensembles 12z eps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 upped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Zero threat as of now for SNE…And if it ain’t zero it’s a couple percent. 3-4 days from now, if there’s a signal, we reevaluate. See how simple that is. No need to be worried, or act like you are to deflect from wishcasting, it’s almost always a nothing burger for SNE; until it isn’t. But as of now it’s nothing. Wait and watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 IT'S BEEN INVESTED LOL AL, 98, 2024081000, , BEST, 0, 115N, 365W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, al742024 to al982024, https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982024.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Chances of the models having the trough correct at this lead is very low…but fun to speculate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Latest forecast models (won’t let me post them directly) https://ibb.co/mBx8txjhttps://ibb.co/DgJCNp1https://ibb.co/M2tXmB0https://ibb.co/kHWyxjBhttps://ibb.co/vcb9F99https://ibb.co/f03sJ04https://ibb.co/xsGJqQK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Sheeeeeit! 1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98): Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Getting Fiona vibes from this one. Hope it develops more quickly and misses the islands to the north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Getting Fiona vibes from this one. Hope it develops more quickly and misses the islands to the north. Any other analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: Getting Fiona vibes from this one. Hope it develops more quickly and misses the islands to the north. Welcome back fiona Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Eric Webb says keep on tracking it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10 Author Share Posted August 10 Early but here’s the first super ensemble. Folks in the islands need to pay attention to this one. Once again there are major short term differences between the GFS and Euro on intensity as this reaches the islands. There is an avenue of less shear, but I’m hesitant to expect rapid take off because of what the shear is currently doing. It looks low on analysis… But reality suggests otherwise… There’s still the caveat for the long range. We’re still in wait and see mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Zzzzz Location: South Williamsport, PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 I think this will ultimately be a miss for the east coast but, let's see how things develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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