Paleocene Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 The always exactly 100% correct 12z NAM: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 12z NAM 12 increases my total from 2.71" to 3.62". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 I think a lot of us E of 81 are going to be looking at the pre-game action today and tomorrow. The HRRR is really aggressive on that, with the NAM less widespread but still with heavy pockets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 I hoping for at least 1.5”. Anything less will be very disappointing. convection trying again to form near the Coc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonTownT Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 If you're in the I95 corridor watch for slowing of the storm correct? The more it slows the more it will be pushed east and the more it speeds up the more it pushes west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 28 minutes ago, Paleocene said: The always exactly 100% correct 12z NAM: I like the 2" blob over Baltimore County, except Dundalk, Essex and White Marsh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 minute ago, RickinBaltimore said: I like the 2" blob over Baltimore County, except Dundalk, Essex and White Marsh You also missed out on that huge rain maker yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Up to 60mph with 11 am advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Weekend forecast is fantastic out here after the front passes. Sunny and low 80's. High 50's at night. Will be nice to get out of the furnace for a few days regardless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 8 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: Up to 60mph with 11 am advisory hmmm... since the previous couple of advisories had Debby only achieving about 50mph max up until 2nd LF, this is a bit of a surprise, wondering how much more strengthening can happen while over water. Debby still not far enough offshore to be influenced much (if at all) by the Gulf Stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7 Author Share Posted August 7 If you recall yesterday, I said to watch for convection and broader structure organization as Debby pushed offshore. Recon still shows a broad wind field, but radar shows solid banding and IR shows convection trying to build closer to the center. We’ll see how much progress it makes today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 NHC speeds up even more and shifts slightly west. Now, near Staunton at 8 am Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 42 minutes ago, stormy said: 12z NAM 12 increases my total from 2.71" to 3.62". I guess we know where the L is going based on the NAM. Right over my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: If you recall yesterday, I said to watch for convection and broader structure organization as Debby pushed offshore. Recon still shows a broad wind field, but radar shows solid banding and IR shows convection trying to build closer to the center. We’ll see how much progress it makes today. Yeah but you can see the north movement now... so I think it time is limited over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7 Author Share Posted August 7 Just now, Interstate said: Yeah but you can see the north movement now... so I think it time is limited over water. Time and the broad center are definitely limiting factors. NHC has 12-24 hours before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Time and the broad center are definitely limiting factors. NHC has 12-24 hours before landfall. Also reading the NWS product... they are increasing the speed to 60 MPH because of that one flare up to the south-east of the center... So the structure really has not changed and there is limited shower/tstorm activity near the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7 Author Share Posted August 7 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Also reading the NWS product... they are increasing the speed to 60 MPH because of that one flare up to the south-east of the center... So the structure really has not changed and there is limited shower/tstorm activity near the center. Right, but it normally only takes one area to raise the maximum sustained wind. I disagree on the structure. To be clear, it’s still broad with dry air clearly entrained, but compared to yesterday or even this morning it has become more organized imo. For this region the wind doesn’t matter, but if it’s better organized at landfall that should help moisture transport as it landfalls and speeds up. The visible shows it well imo. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 hour ago, Interstate said: You also missed out on that huge rain maker yesterday afternoon. Yup, that hit White Marsh. Heard the thunder from it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 QPC 5 days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 ^looks like it's been nudged back up a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Heavy precip meso issued for most of the area 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Heavy precip meso issued for most of the area The KDP on those Delmarva cells is pretty high, definitely someone getting a downpour. Concurrently, there's training setting up over Garrett County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Really hoping everyone gets drenched but especially the mountains. The Shenandoah/GWNF trout streams have had a couple rough years and can really use some water 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Day 2 SPC OTLK moved SLGT risk NW quite alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 D1 ERO out on the main WPC page with discussion. D2-3 will be out around 430 PM, at the latest 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 CSU AI models are pretty bullish for the severe weather and tornado potential on Friday. Maybe overdone, but that is always a concern whenever a tropical system passes to your west. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 34 minutes ago, peribonca said: Really hoping everyone gets drenched but especially the mountains. The Shenandoah/GWNF trout streams have had a couple rough years and can really use some water Most of the highlands you can walk across the rivers and streams and in some cases, not even get your feet wet. It's difficult to fully appreciate unless you've been out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Showers seem incapable of crossing the fall line lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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