CAPE Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: Congrats Pittsburgh. I went from 5-7 to less then an inch. That should boring over 3 days lol. Sprinkles and low clouds is better than 100 degrees. I've been home almost a week and seen no rain. It drizzled a bit when I was asleep a few days ago. Hopefully a scattered shower or 2 manages to move over my yard in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 WB 6Z 3K NAM still is west of the other models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Anybody else starting to gel that feeling? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 13 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Anybody else starting to gel that feeling? Yup. Lol. It will be in Detroit in a few more runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 37 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Anybody else starting to gel that feeling? 0z euro remains a deluge for all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 WPC shifts east a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Looks like some convection is trying fire up around the center. might b losing battle., but it’s trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 @midatlanticweather does WPC break it down by day? Euro has been very bullish on rain late today through tomorrow, and that’s a significant fraction of total rain for those of us east of the mountains. Curious what WPC thinks of that. @MillvilleWx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: Anybody else starting to gel that feeling? Euro on an island. Yea I smell bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Where did the storm go lol. Reed Timmers "maga east coast flood" headlines aren't aging well. Headed out to water the garden. It's back to being pretty dry here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 19 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Where did the storm go lol. Reed Timmers "maga east coast flood" headlines aren't aging well. Headed out to water the garden. It's back to being pretty dry here. Reed Timmer says a lot of things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 We get an Airbnb two blocks inland from this hotel in Myrtle Beach a couple times a year. With the exception of one convective band about to move in, this view yesterday (and still is this morning) pretty sedate...just saw a nice sunrise, in fact. They recorded just over 1.5" in this part of the Grand Strand in past 24 hours...still calling for "catastrophic" 10-15 inch rains in Horry County. We'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 After the winter disaster, seeing the 3K NAM so far west is a red flag but the Canadian both GDPS & RDPS, EURO, and ICON are also still showing widespread 2 plus inches of rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 WB NBM has trended down over its last few runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro on an island. Yea I smell bust. I’m not on the doom train yet, but I think we have to be realistic that on the east side of the circulation there will be training cells that put some in the winner’s category and leave others with a more moderate result. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I’m not on the doom train yet, but I think we have to be realistic that on the east side of the circulation there will be training cells that put some in the winner’s category and leave others with a more moderate result. I can envision the little L going right over my house and basically seeing blue sky above while it's raining everywhere else. I'm assuming that's why alot of the models show a swath of precip min that's near me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 21 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I’m not on the doom train yet, but I think we have to be realistic that on the east side of the circulation there will be training cells that put some in the winner’s category and leave others with a more moderate result. It will be a bust over here for the week ending this Saturday. Haven't had anything yet, despite forecasts of 1-2"+ this past weekend into last night. Being this far east of the low track will likely result in some winners and many more losers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 18 minutes ago, Weather Will said: After the winter disaster, seeing the 3K NAM so far west is a red flag but the Canadian both GDPS & RDPS, EURO, and ICON are also still showing widespread 2 plus inches of rain.. The 3K only goes out to 60 hours... all of these maps you are showing are out to 69+ hours... We can do better... the majority of the QPF falls after the 60 hour mark. Correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 22 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I’m not on the doom train yet, but I think we have to be realistic that on the east side of the circulation there will be training cells that put some in the winner’s category and leave others with a more moderate result. East side is definitely more variable. But 3k NAM is not a tropical model… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 At any rate it's sorta looking like Saturday might be an ok day now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: East side is definitely more variable. But 3k NAM is not a tropical model… Yeah, but the HAFS look even worse, so I’m trying to ignore them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 NHC shifts the track 13 miles east at 5 am to Charlottesville at noon Friday. This is good because I was afraid the westward jog would continue. Ridge east and trough west will turn the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: @midatlanticweather does WPC break it down by day? Euro has been very bullish on rain late today through tomorrow, and that’s a significant fraction of total rain for those of us east of the mountains. Curious what WPC thinks of that. @MillvilleWx? We have a day by day breakdown via our website, I believe sites like Weatherbell and Pivotal can be broken down day by day as well! There’s going to be some scattered convection later today through the evening that could put down some local totals exceeding 1” with the best chance likely along and north of Rt 50. Slight Risk ERO out for the Delmarva to about I-95, which was continuity from my forecast yesterday. A new update will be out around Noon (16z) for the ERO. QPF update out by 130PM (1730z). Similar cadence all year if you’re wondering! 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB NBM has trended down over its last few runs... This usually happens as we get closer with convectively dominant systems. Unlike usual tropical impacts that have a broader QPF distribution, this one will have a more defined heavy rain axis as the circulation gets absorbed into the front. The timing of the trough picking up Debby and interacting with the front will be crucial for where the heaviest rain will fall. As of now, the consensus is along and west of the Fall line for greatest threat of 2+” tomorrow. We’ll see how defined that stripe will be as we get closer. There’s a shot someone gets 4-5” of rain if a train echo develops, but anyone outside of the band gets less than half of that. Nature of these types of systems. It’ll be fairly progressive Thursday night through Friday as well once it gets picked up. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z 3K NAM still is west of the other models.... I do not have access to those fancy maps. It would be curious to see what the QPF output is for them at 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 For those curious on the latest blend probabilities: 07z NBM >2” Storm Total: 50-80% area wide west of the Bay 07z NBM >3” Storm Total: 30-60% with a max of 65-70% over Carroll and Frederick Counties (North of I-70) 07z NBM >5” Storm Total: 10-25% area wide with highest northwest of the Fall line 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7 Author Share Posted August 7 @MillvilleWx always on it. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 My NBM total expectation has dropped from 4.73" at 8 pm to 3.84" now with a similar track close to my area. One possible factor is the NHC expected acceleration of the storm if this is modeled. The NHC expectation is now around 25mph as it moves north across Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Quick hitter, it’s reasonable and a good bet to expect the low end totals! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 On 8/6/2024 at 10:19 AM, aldie 22 said: Usually what bites us on high totals is these things speed up and get out of here quickly. I'm always suspicious of super high totals for any event around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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