aldie 22 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 20 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 18z NAM Nest says I get more rain in 6 hours from 00z to 06z Friday (~2.5") than the 18z GFS run through Saturday (<2"). It's never easy around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 5pm track of Debby is along or just east of the i81 corridor 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 If that track verifies - the conditional TOR threat would certainly be present. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 I would think that everyone would be happy with 2+ inches of rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 15 minutes ago, Interstate said: I would think that everyone would be happy with 2+ inches of rain 4"+ and were good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Crozet at noon Friday from NHC which is 13 miles west of Charlottesville. 14 miles east of my east side deck with the Blue Ridge in the middle. Upslope enhancement should give 5 - 10 inches along the B.R. 3 - 6 inches in my back yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 hour ago, yoda said: 5pm track of Debby is along or just east of the i81 corridor Oh so the western folks might FINALLY get a 2 inch plus rain event. Meanwhile, the eastern folks get a tornado outbreak....or what would seem that way around here.....hope we smash the Ivan event in 2004. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Since I’m down here in HHI, I’ve been watching the radar closely for the last 36 hours. The center of circulation has definitely hopped around in the last 4-6 hours and is now significantly offshore, whereas it had been sitting basically just SSE of Savannah for ages. Not sure what that means for things at home, but just making my own observation. Hopefully it results in 25” of rain in six hours up there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 18 minutes ago, mattie g said: Since I’m down here in HHI, I’ve been watching the radar closely for the last 36 hours. The center of circulation has definitely hopped around in the last 4-6 hours and is now significantly offshore, whereas it had been sitting basically just SSE of Savannah for ages. Not sure what that means for things at home, but just making my own observation. Hopefully it results in 25” of rain in six hours up there! A repeat of Camille in Nelson County ? Or Madison county in 95 ? We need rain bad but not another catastrophic event... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Sorry if this should be banter, but in OC and trying to figure out if I should leave before my last day on Friday. Actually not really worried about the shore but more about traveling home to Brunswick on Friday....thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 FWIW, 18z Euro has Debby going up the i81 corridor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 WB 18Z EURO.... would wind gusts of 50 shut the Bay Bridge down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 H/t @mitchnick 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Euro wind gusts look bad for an extended period when you consider the amount of rain to fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO.... would wind gusts of 50 shut the Bay Bridge down? Euro always overdoes winds 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 WB 18Z 3K NAM has winds approaching 50 too (still moving N at hour 60) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdatcher Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO.... would wind gusts of 50 shut the Bay Bridge down? 55 does but it would be a traffic hellscape even at 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7 Author Share Posted August 7 57 minutes ago, mattie g said: Since I’m down here in HHI, I’ve been watching the radar closely for the last 36 hours. The center of circulation has definitely hopped around in the last 4-6 hours and is now significantly offshore, whereas it had been sitting basically just SSE of Savannah for ages. Not sure what that means for things at home, but just making my own observation. Hopefully it results in 25” of rain in six hours up there! I wouldn’t bring this up in the other hellscape tropical threads, but the pressure has started dropping gradually per NHC. Probably a jog a little south too in recent hours. We’ll need to see if convection can fire around the center tomorrow. Will take time to reorganize. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I wouldn’t bring this up in the other hellscape tropical threads, but the pressure has started dropping gradually per NHC. Probably a jog a little south too in recent hours. We’ll need to see if convection can fire around the center tomorrow. Will take time to reorganize. The center has moved significantly over the past six hours compared to the previous 12-18 hours. I think we’ll see some strengthening since the center is pretty well off the coast at this point. Wife and I want to take advantage of the extra few days down here with the kids’ grandparents, so hopefully we can get and about at least a little tomorrow! After 8+” of rain yesterday, we’ve gotten 1-2” today. Really need this thing to beef up tomorrow if HHI is going to get close to the 20” being bandied about a couple days ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7 Author Share Posted August 7 It has some significant dry air to mix out, but given that it should be over warm water and a low shear environment the next day or so, it should intensify some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 It has some significant dry air to mix out, but given that it should be over warm water and a low shear environment the next day or so, it should intensify some. Curious, as the dry air is now over water and in a low pressure environment does it start to..uh..”moisten up” or is too much dry air for it to have any measurable effect?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 2 hours ago, yoda said: 5pm track of Debby is along or just east of the i81 corridor @EastCoast NPZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: @EastCoast NPZ I'll beleive it rains here when it actually happens. Tonight is yet another example of how rain manages to steer away from this place. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 is the 4K Graf model available to weenies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7 Author Share Posted August 7 41 minutes ago, MDphotog said: Curious, as the dry air is now over water and in a low pressure environment does it start to..uh..”moisten up” or is too much dry air for it to have any measurable effect? . In this case, I think environment will moisten some and dry air will diminish, but dry air will likely linger to some extent around the center. This shows up pretty well on the hurricane models like HWRF and HAFS A & B. Even with a favorable environment, it takes a while for a disorganized tropical system to mix out dry air. It may be more efficiently mixed if the center got over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, but time and its current state are major inhibiting factors. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 14 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I'll beleive it rains here when it actually happens. Don't forget that you actually have to leave your mom's basement to see it rain 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z 3K NAM has winds approaching 50 too (still moving N at hour 60) Worth noting that the model gust products (at least for the American models, not sure about Euro) are showing a gust potential, not necessarily what will mix down. If there is high wind speed in the PBL, and it's ever so slightly unstable at the surface, it will mix a chunk of that momentum to the ground. I'm unconvinced that we'd mix efficiently in the tropical air mass, but I guess we'll see. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 WB 0Z 3K NAM ticked further West compared to 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: If that track verifies - the conditional TOR threat would certainly be present. Northeast quadrant bad for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 11pm track from NHC pretty much the same... along or just east of i81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Congrats Pittsburgh. I went from 5-7 to less then an inch. That should boring over 3 days lol. Sprinkles and low clouds is better than 100 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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