JFLETCHER Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 12z GFS continues the western track of the low to the mountains, pretty much doing the loop it has been doing for a while then moving up into the Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 12z Ukie is a forum wide deluge. Looks like 4 to 7 across the area with the heaviest banked up against the Blue ridge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 This is a good look on the Euro. . Big story - how far east or west? Shenandoah looks nuked here Edit - pretty far west for the big dump of rain: Last image, 48-hour QPF: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Euro is generally 3-6”, but a few bust/boom spots here and there. Ride up the Apps so it’s a deluge for Shenandoah valley and Blue Ridge. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 6 Author Share Posted August 6 I don’t think it matters much yet, but Debby is looking markedly more organized as the center tries moving offshore. You can see shallow convection on the formerly dry side and a better defined center. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro is generally 3-6”, but a few bust/boom spots here and there. Ride up the Apps so it’s a deluge for Shenandoah valley and Blue Ridge. Most of us need a big rainer but if any place does it's out that way 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t think it matters much yet, but Debby is looking markedly more organized as the center tries moving offshore. You can see shallow convection on the formerly dry side and a better defined center. It's been just a regular rainy day down here, but definitely some heavier showers started mixing in about an hour or so ago. It's impressive that the rain is wrapping around so far west. Get that to keep wrapping all the way around the circulation and it'll be some decent rains here again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 It’s definitely has a chance to reorganize . Just a matter of how long the center remains over water and if it ever reaches the Gulf Stream . Still think it has a chance at upper end TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. There was a decent 5" - 7" painted across a decent chunk Maryland yesterday. Never saw that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 3 hours ago, high risk said: Yeah, Friday will be a convective deluge in the warm sector. We'll see if the NAM is correct with the western track, although it does have the support of the Euro I gotta clear my gullies for effective drainage. What time you think it gets going good in DC proper on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Never saw that Yesterday had the 5"+ contour from I-95 east: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/qpf/display_maps.php?prodtype=issued&proddate=08/05/2024&prodtime=00&allsent=no&imagetype=color&actualprods=d15,d17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 For lolz, the 12z NAMNest appears to choose violence for everyone starting Friday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 WB 15Z NBM compared to 6Z yesterday. Clear tick west but widespread welcome rain increasingly likely!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro is generally 3-6”, but a few bust/boom spots here and there. Ride up the Apps so it’s a deluge for Shenandoah valley and Blue Ridge. i'd happily take 4" of rain over the next 3.5 days. even though we got about 2" at the end of last week, everything out here is crunchy again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: For lolz, the 12z NAMNest appears to choose violence for everyone starting Friday. Are you extrapolating after the end of the run at 00z Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 6 Author Share Posted August 6 Severe thunderstorm and FFW over White Marsh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 The WPC shifts the axis of heaviest rain to the west: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 245pm afternoon HWO for all 3 regions from LWX have this DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Tropical Cyclone Debby will approach the region later this week, potentially bringing impacts Thursday night through Saturday morning. Potential impacts include flooding due to heavy rainfall, tornadoes, gusty winds, tidal flooding, and Gale force winds over the waters. For the latest information on the track and potential impacts from Debby, please consult forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 I think we get a Mod risk for rainfall Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Another view of the WPC heavy rain axis shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Nice write-up by NWS Sterling. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The remnant low pressure system of TC Debby is likely to move across the area sometime Friday into Friday night. Aloft, an approaching upper trough begins to pull northward the mid-level vorticity signature of Debby, while also interacting with a stalled frontal boundary over the area. Deep tropical moisture, with PWATs well over 2.2-2.4", surge into the area on strengthening low-level southerly flow. The area is going to be near the favorable right-entrance region of an upper level jet streak over the far easter Great Lakes. In addition, strong divergence is noted upstream of the mid-level vort max of remnant TC Debby. These conditions should cause the remnant surface to low to deepens as it moves northeast through the area, which in turn is likely to increase the potential for locally heavy rainfall and gale force winds over the waters. Stable temperatures in this deeply saturated environment will be mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s, with small diurnal variability. Heavy Rainfall / Flash Flooding Threat: At the very least, the remnants of TC Debby are likely to bring beneficial rainfall to most of the area, especially those west of the Blue Ridge where an Extreme Drought is ongoing. Most of this rain is expected to fall over a 36-48 hour period starting Thursday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4" are likely, with isolated higher amounts of 6" possible. This does not take into account any localized heavy rain that may occur Wednesday as the stalled front sags south into our area. A Flood Watch is likely to be issued for most of the area over the next 24 hours as it becomes more clear where the heaviest rain will occur. This rain is likely to produce scattered instances of flash flooding, mainly in urban centers. Repeated rounds of heavy rain and/or a training band of heavy rain could result in significant flash flooding if it occurs over an urban area. Continue to monitor the weather as the forecast becomes more certain in the days ahead. Tornado Threat: A tornado threat could develop over parts of the area sometime on Friday, most likely during peak heating in the afternoon to early evening. The greatest threat looks to be along and east of US-15. Now this threat is very conditional, and based on where the exact track of the surface low. Aloft, a LLJ on the eastern side of the surface low brings in 40-50KT of SSE/S flow above steady ESE/SE winds at the surface. Long, curved hodographs are possible, with very high low-level SRH values progged in some of the model guidance. The remnants of TC Debby are absorbed by a large upper trough to our north and quickly speed away from the area. Lingering showers and thunderstorms on the backside of the system quickly move out from west to east Saturday morning. Most of the area should be dry come Saturday afternoon. Surface high pressure builds in Saturday night into the start of next week. Upper troughing continues across much of the Great Lakes to Northeast CONUS into next week. Dry conditions expected Sunday and Monday, with below normal highs in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows in the 60s. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 2 hours ago, aldie 22 said: Most of us need a big rainer but if any place does it's out that way Amen. Hit 90.9 today which is the highest so far this year. With less than 2 inches of rain since early June, a 2 day soaker would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 https://twitter.com/NWSMARFC/status/1820893268374323271?t=WoWyu9R0mhEGqlDhfZAzog&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 And the close up of the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: And the close up of the rain So, I'm perfectly happy with that forecasted rain in my very dry corner of SE FfxCo...and even happier that the Valley is forecasted to get even more, because they desperately need it more than us! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: I think we get a Mod risk for rainfall Friday. I’ll see what I can come up with 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 That was one hell of an ERO desk shift today with more to come this week. Not going to lie, I had a lot of fun. Love the challenge. If you ever want to know if that’s me doing the forecast, check the Excessive Rainfall Discussion and look for “Kleebauer” on the sign off. Hoping we bring home the goods this week. 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 18z NAM Nest says I get more rain in 6 hours from 00z to 06z Friday (~2.5") than the 18z GFS run through Saturday (<2"). 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 18z NAM Nest says I get more rain in 6 hours from 00z to 06z Friday (~2.5") than the 18z GFS run through Saturday (<2"). Lord GooFus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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