stormy Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 NHC shifts predicted track west overnight. 25 miles west of Richmond at midnight Friday. 20 miles southeast D.C. 2 am Saturday. My 3 model blend has increased from 3.76" at 6 pm to 4.96" at 7 am. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 WB 6Z GEFS: 2 inch prob. Or more increasing for NW zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 ^Got these for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 WB 6Z EURO. Not over yet at end of run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 0z euro washes Stephen’s City away. Bring it. I will wave to you as my house floats by down the Potomac. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 54 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^Got these for the Euro? WB 6Z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 6 Author Share Posted August 6 23 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Bring it. I will wave to you as my house floats by down the Potomac. If this one doesn’t produce for you, we may need to consider one of those desert irrigation systems for the region. Build a pipeline to Lake Erie. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Given how bad it has been, that’s a reasonable take lol. You’re in the extreme drought zone, right? 5 hours ago, MDstorm said: If a couple tenths lead to shock and ecstasy, what will 15-20 times that amount do to you? My area is in severe drought according to the map. The thing here is my specific spot (just NE of Germantown) misses close by over and over. Like Saturday I saw dark sky and thunder first to the N and later S with nothing here. Seems like south county gets the storms over and over or they swing up thru the high elevations to my west around to Damascus/Mt Airy. The big rain days a weeks ago yielded me 0.43 and I got just 1.1 for July. It would be incredible for my area to get 2 inches from this especially if it's spread out over a couple days. But man I have to see it first I am jaded 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 WPC appears to have really knocked back the rainfall for this week. General 2" - 4", some 5"+ from Baltimore NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 42 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: WPC appears to have really knocked back the rainfall for this week. General 2" - 4", some 5"+ from Baltimore NE. I’d still take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: WPC appears to have really knocked back the rainfall for this week. General 2" - 4", some 5"+ from Baltimore NE. Did they ever have much more than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 9 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Did they ever have much more than that? Yes. There was a decent 5" - 7" painted across a decent chunk Maryland yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. There was a decent 5" - 7" painted across a decent chunk Maryland yesterday. Usually what bites us on high totals is these things speed up and get out of here quickly. I'm always suspicious of super high totals for any event around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 9 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Usually what bites us on high totals is these things speed up and get out of here quickly. I'm always suspicious of super high totals for any event around here It doesn't look like anything extreme and never really did. A good soaking over several days is exactly what we need, and look to get. It should be a nice break from the crushing heat and humidity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 NAM 12 shifts west with 12z. Increased flood risk for western zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 6 minutes ago, stormy said: NAM 12 shifts west with 12z. Increased flood risk for western zones. It's far enough west that it bring a tornado threat into play. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 7 minutes ago, stormy said: NAM 12 shifts west with 12z. Increased flood risk for western zones. The trend seems to be further west up the Appalachians. They could probably use it more then the lowlands. I just hope it doesn't end up boring here with just passing showers and fast moving low clouds for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It's far enough west that it bring a tornado threat into play. Wow congrats terrain + tropical moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Wow 12z NAM is a firehose into Mason-Dixon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Nearly 3" PWATs across the entire area per the 12z NAM. Someone gets soaked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Nearly 3" PWATs across the entire area per the 12z NAM. Someone gets soaked. Yeah, Friday will be a convective deluge in the warm sector. We'll see if the NAM is correct with the western track, although it does have the support of the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 38 minutes ago, dailylurker said: It doesn't look like anything extreme and never really did. A good soaking over several days is exactly what we need, and look to get. It should be a nice break from the crushing heat and humidity. I get what you're saying, with the seeming growing likelihood of the core synoptic rains shifting west, but there will be a multi-day period of very high PW values over the Mid-Atlantic with waves of scattered convection. There will absolutely be areas that get a ton of rain, and even some that will get a ton of rain before the "main day" on Friday. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 This is what the Shenandoah basin desperately needs. I pray it comes to pass. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 13 minutes ago, high risk said: I get what you're saying, with the seeming growing likelihood of the core synoptic rains shifting west, but there will be a multi-day period of very high PW values over the Mid-Atlantic with waves of scattered convection. There will absolutely be areas that get a ton of rain, and even some that will get a ton of rain before the "main day" on Friday. 2" PWATs extend all the way to Buffalo on the 12z NAM. That's a pretty intense river. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 28 minutes ago, high risk said: I get what you're saying, with the seeming growing likelihood of the core synoptic rains shifting west, but there will be a multi-day period of very high PW values over the Mid-Atlantic with waves of scattered convection. There will absolutely be areas that get a ton of rain, and even some that will get a ton of rain before the "main day" on Friday. What are your thoughts on wind? I've got some huge cannabis plants I'm a little worried about. Soft wet ground and strong winds could be an issue. I'm going to secure them for the storm the best I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Here's the plants. I figured out how to post pictures lol 4 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 7 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Here's the plants. I figured out how to post pictures lol Dam brother, those look healthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 21 minutes ago, dailylurker said: What are your thoughts on wind? I've got some huge cannabis plants I'm a little worried about. Soft wet ground and strong winds could be an issue. I'm going to secure them for the storm the best I can. I’m no expert but winds seem a non-factor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 7 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: Dam brother, those look healthy. Thanks! I should of posted in banter. I'd move it but not sure how lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 31 minutes ago, dailylurker said: What are your thoughts on wind? I've got some huge cannabis plants I'm a little worried about. Soft wet ground and strong winds could be an issue. I'm going to secure them for the storm the best I can. I'm not too concerned about winds, except for the EF-1 tornadoes on Friday. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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