Rhino16 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Being in the northern neck, not sure if we got an inch of rain, but it looks about done except for any blobs that may happen today. It seems as though they form over land, and there isn’t really any to my southeast for them to form on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 Not a bad look at all on IR 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: 0.43” since last night. I’d be content with a total of 3” by saturday. The mountains and shen valley need it more. Right where I am in both aspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not a bad look at all on IR Very good outflow and ventilation over top! Now future trackers towards the coast it’s a little alarming how far west this got. I would keep the guard up in the next two weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Storm is definitely going through extra tropical transition. A fairly stout axis of deformation is beginning to unfold around I-77 down in the Carolinas. We’ll see that come into play for the heaviest axis of precip. The Shenandoah is going to get hammered, as well as the adjacent Blue Ridge. Areas that desperately needed rain out there should get it. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 0.48” at 9am imby/Columbia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 3.12” at mi casa since 4 PM yesterday. Boy that was nice to see this morning when checking the obs 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: Storm is definitely going through extra tropical transition. A fairly stout axis of deformation is beginning to unfold around I-77 down in the Carolinas. We’ll see that come into play for the heaviest axis of precip. The Shenandoah is going to get hammered, as well as the adjacent Blue Ridge. Areas that desperately needed rain out there should get it. Watch this turn into a nor’easter while it’s over us like Isaias did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: Very good outflow and ventilation over top! Now future trackers towards the coast it’s a little alarming how far west this got. I would keep the guard up in the next two weeks. I don’t have anything scientific here, but I do think seeing how that Midwest trough trended does show that there’s potential this month that future troughs could do the same. Maybe not enough to drive it to Buffalo lol, but I think we get another EC threat (or two) this month. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Not sure if this nadocast thing is calibrated for tropical cyclones, but holey moley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Tornado Watch coming out shortly for southern and central Virginia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Tornado Watch coming out shortly for southern and central Virginia? Sounds like it... but probably won't extend into LWX CWA yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1630z OTLK from SPC pushed the SLGT risk and 5% tor northward a good amount to the Mason-Dixon line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Rapidly developing popcorn blob aleet! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 New TOR up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1.24" since last night. Looks to continue to be dry here until the main core in a few hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t have anything scientific here, but I do think seeing how that Midwest trough trended does show that there’s potential this month that future troughs could do the same. Maybe not enough to drive it to Buffalo lol, but I think we get another EC threat (or two) this month. JB is already onto the 8/20 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 1.24" since last night. Looks to continue to be dry here until the main core in a few hours. Are you sure you are measuring in the correct Stephens City? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 minute ago, yoda said: Are you sure you are measuring in the correct Stephens City? Look at PWS's in the area and you'll quickly realize it's Stephens City. Lol. It's probably the lowest total in the Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 6 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: New TOR up URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Central and Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms embedded within the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby will continue to track northeastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Richmond VA to 50 miles southeast of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 I’ll put this here since it’s Debby related, but two photos from my current vantage point atop Killington. First is looking north, and the second south. edit: and just as I post this, it starts raining. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 40/20 tor probs... kind of surprised at the 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Look at PWS's in the area and you'll quickly realize it's Stephens City. Lol. It's probably the lowest total in the Valley. Just got to half a inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 3 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said: Just got to half a inch... You're on the verge of the main core. You're going to get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Looks like a heavy but fast moving band is about to roll through silver spring, sprinkles have begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 .85" last 18 hrs. NHC now projects bullseye at Staunton at 6 am. New Market at 8 am. Outer perimeter of rain-shield 5 miles southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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