Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chimoss
    Newest Member
    Chimoss
    Joined

Tropical Storm Debby: Mid-Atlantic Impacts


WxWatcher007
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, yoda said:

5pm track of Debby is along or just east of the i81 corridor 

212535_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

 

Oh so the western folks might FINALLY get a 2 inch plus rain event. Meanwhile, the eastern folks get a tornado outbreak....or what would seem that way around here.....hope we smash the Ivan event in 2004.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since I’m down here in HHI, I’ve been watching the radar closely for the last 36 hours. The center of circulation has definitely hopped around in the last 4-6 hours and is now significantly offshore, whereas it had been sitting basically just SSE of Savannah for ages.

Not sure what that means for things at home, but just making my own observation. Hopefully it results in 25” of rain in six hours up there!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Since I’m down here in HHI, I’ve been watching the radar closely for the last 36 hours. The center of circulation has definitely hopped around in the last 4-6 hours and is now significantly offshore, whereas it had been sitting basically just SSE of Savannah for ages.

Not sure what that means for things at home, but just making my own observation. Hopefully it results in 25” of rain in six hours up there!

A repeat of Camille in Nelson County ? Or Madison county in 95 ? 

We need rain bad but not  another catastrophic event... LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Since I’m down here in HHI, I’ve been watching the radar closely for the last 36 hours. The center of circulation has definitely hopped around in the last 4-6 hours and is now significantly offshore, whereas it had been sitting basically just SSE of Savannah for ages.

Not sure what that means for things at home, but just making my own observation. Hopefully it results in 25” of rain in six hours up there!

I wouldn’t bring this up in the other hellscape tropical threads, but the pressure has started dropping gradually per NHC. Probably a jog a little south too in recent hours. We’ll need to see if convection can fire around the center tomorrow. Will take time to reorganize. 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I wouldn’t bring this up in the other hellscape tropical threads, but the pressure has started dropping gradually per NHC. Probably a jog a little south too in recent hours. We’ll need to see if convection can fire around the center tomorrow. Will take time to reorganize. 

The center has moved significantly over the past six hours compared to the previous 12-18 hours. I think we’ll see some strengthening since the center is pretty well off the coast at this point.

Wife and I want to take advantage of the extra few days down here with the kids’ grandparents, so hopefully we can get and about at least a little tomorrow! :lol:

After 8+” of rain yesterday, we’ve gotten 1-2” today. Really need this thing to beef up tomorrow if HHI is going to get close to the 20” being bandied about a couple days ago!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It has some significant dry air to mix out, but given that it should be over warm water and a low shear environment the next day or so, it should intensify some. 
73148374.gif?0.9765816939557109

Curious, as the dry air is now over water and in a low pressure environment does it start to..uh..”moisten up” or is too much dry air for it to have any measurable effect?


.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, MDphotog said:


Curious, as the dry air is now over water and in a low pressure environment does it start to..uh..”moisten up” or is too much dry air for it to have any measurable effect?


.

In this case, I think environment will moisten some and dry air will diminish, but dry air will likely linger to some extent around the center. This shows up pretty well on the hurricane models like HWRF and HAFS A & B. 

Even with a favorable environment, it takes a while for a disorganized tropical system to mix out dry air. It may be more efficiently mixed if the center got over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, but time and its current state are major inhibiting factors.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3K NAM has winds approaching 50 too (still moving N at hour 60)

 

    Worth noting that the model gust products (at least for the American models, not sure about Euro) are showing a gust potential, not necessarily what will mix down.    If there is high wind speed in the PBL, and it's ever so slightly unstable at the surface, it will mix a chunk of that momentum to the ground.    I'm unconvinced that we'd mix efficiently in the tropical air mass, but I guess we'll see.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...