WxWatcher007 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 I don’t need to tell you that it’s been a dry summer. The anomalously strong tropical wave that traversed the Atlantic made landfall in Florida this morning as a category one hurricane, and as it meanders in the southeast bringing potentially catastrophic flooding in parts of FL, GA, and SC, it’s time for a thread to track impacts in the Mid-Atlantic region. Debby is emphatically a rain event. It’s not just the slow movement in the south that will cause issues, it’s the presence of a coming trough and anomalously high moisture content that will bring flooding potential along most of the U.S. East Coast. A lot remains unclear on impacts in the region. It’s a high likelihood that significant rain occurs, but how much and how far west the rain gets, as well as coastal wind, surge, and severe weather impacts will be determined by the structural organization of the low after a likely landfall in SC, and the track as it moves north and northeast. Here’s the latest forecast. 6 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Yeah man...bring it home for the Mid-Atlantic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Dont normally want a tropical storm out here in the mountains. The flooding can be very bad. But we need the rain so bad right now. I would take whatever I can get. My yard is literally splitting like it is the dust bowl or something. Worst summer of my life after the worst winter of my life. We are really getting beat down in this region. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scope1 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Excited for this storm, first interesting weather event in a long time. Almost as good as a nice snowstorm at this point. Hopefully we get in the bullseye and get 7+ inches. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Latest WPC 3pm updates showing 5 day totals about 1 to 3 from the Apps and a little west, 2 to 4 in the Piedmont area, and then 4 to 6 counties adjacent to I-95 and east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 The main question for the next 72 hrs. is exactly when and how strong will a mid level ridge build to the east of Debby. The strength of this ridge will determine whether Norfolk or Lynchburg will receive heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Some wonder about this model or that model???? That is nonsense. No model has the final solution yet. If they did it would be by pure accident. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5 Author Share Posted August 5 The forecast will definitely continue to evolve as we see how Debbie moves back over the Atlantic and interacts with the ridge/trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Happy hour gfs still with the big left turn 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Here is that close up from WPC update this afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 WB 18Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Interesting how there are no "misses" on the 18z GEFS. Confidence definitely going up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Looks like it might be back over water sooner that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Interesting how there are no "misses" on the 18z GEFS. Confidence definitely going up. It looks like one of those big tropical rain events that hits Japan and China. I think they call extreme rain events, black rain warning. Black rain warning sounds so much cooler. This looks like a black rain event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 32 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: Looks like it might be back over water sooner that forecast. 56 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS Hey Will. Not sure if you meant to post it but that's the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 24 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Hey Will. Not sure if you meant to post it but that's the euro ensembles. Sorry, just fixed it.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Sorry but have to see it to believe it. I'd be shocked and ecstatic to see more then a couple tenths 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 6 Author Share Posted August 6 29 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Sorry but have to see it to believe it. I'd be shocked and ecstatic to see more then a couple tenths Given how bad it has been, that’s a reasonable take lol. You’re in the extreme drought zone, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 3 hours ago, scope1 said: Excited for this storm, first interesting weather event in a long time. Almost as good as a nice snowstorm at this point. Hopefully we get in the bullseye and get 7+ inches. Sure do hope you get a 7 incher…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 9 minutes ago, baldereagle said: Sure do hope you get a 7 incher…… Can you loan him some money for the surgery?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Looks like the 18z euro was going to be a deluge. 2-3 " by Friday morning with the remnants of Debby still down at the NC/SC border. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Looks like the 18z euro was going to be a deluge. 2-3 " by Friday morning with the remnants of Debby still down at the NC/SC border. GFS on an island now as the driest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 6 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: Sorry but have to see it to believe it. I'd be shocked and ecstatic to see more then a couple tenths If a couple tenths lead to shock and ecstasy, what will 15-20 times that amount do to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 0z euro washes Stephen’s City away. 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scope1 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 0z euro washes Stephen’s City away. Have a qpf precip map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 4 minutes ago, scope1 said: Have a qpf precip map? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Gfs slowly coming in line with other guidance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That map doesn't upset me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 20 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: That map doesn't upset me And for a lot of us, the rain’s spread out from this evening through late Friday. So that would reduce flooding risks and help it soak in. Euro really emphasizes the rain tomorrow and Thursday with onshore flow focused along the front through our area. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 6 Author Share Posted August 6 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs slowly coming in line with other guidance Maybe next run it’ll try to be consistent rather than burying the low in Alabama again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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