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Decrepid Debby/PRE - Flooding, Severe Threat


TalcottWx
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14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interesting how we're coming at this from two different interest areas...  

I was mentioning in the Aug thread ( I think ) yesterday that Friday might have about a 9 hour window of Bahama Blue atmosphere ... having been hoisted N around the E side of Debra's soul.   I always thought that an impressive transport phenomenon

Interesting indeed, wasn't even thinking about that's a great observation. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I saw a photo once of a small cu tower pre glaciation ..., with a funnel extending half way to the ground. 

Wow that's pretty wild. Sounds like something you would see over the ocean. 

Also looks like tomorrow is evolving to be much more progressive, this may limit some of the flooding potential a bit. 

If we are able to break any peaks of sun tomorrow there could be some nasty cells. 

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wow that's pretty wild. Sounds like something you would see over the ocean. 

Also looks like tomorrow is evolving to be much more progressive, this may limit some of the flooding potential a bit. 

If we are able to break any peaks of sun tomorrow there could be some nasty cells. 

No it was over land.   This was clearly a rotating updraft at cloud materialization. 

but yeah... water spouts can sometimes register early.  

i've wondered in the past if that's just the higher moisture content helping to expose rotation more prolifically.   Like there may be more rotation below common congestus cloud types that is just unknowable because there's no condensation.   I was driving home from a day at Narragansett Beach once and we were heading back N on Rt 1 and as we passed through the s-breeze boundary/ up under the dark-based CUs there was a long rope funnel extending down from the mass and slopping horizontal. it was partially translucent making it hard to see .. .but that's no obstacle for the obsessive cloud nerds like myself..   - you cannot hide!     I've actually seen small elevated 'micro' ropes tentacled out from the sides of random fair weather cu often enough.  you just need sunglasses, patience, and obsession and you'll see them.

granted those are different than wholesale rotating CU ... but there's a relationship.  it's all academic really

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20 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Paging @weatherwiz

From a met in the MA subforum 

image.png

 

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wow that's pretty wild. Sounds like something you would see over the ocean. 

Also looks like tomorrow is evolving to be much more progressive, this may limit some of the flooding potential a bit. 

If we are able to break any peaks of sun tomorrow there could be some nasty cells. 

D2

severe_ml_day2_all_gefso_081012.png

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If the HRRR is correct, there may be some enhanced tornado potential between 5 AM - Noon (from south to north across the region). 

Warm front lifting northwards during this period and is characterized by a very rich llvl theta-e airmass

image.thumb.png.7742ea3e3a75200f60bfc2e35dd6e638.png

As the rich llvl theta-e air transports northwards, the HRRR has a pocket of 3km CAPE > 200 J/KG surging northwards. This is some significant llvl CAPE. The greatest overall shear is a bit later in the day, however, the HRRR keeps 150+ 3km CAPE in place through the day. 

image.thumb.png.f1a9d65240a72c48c64582f9f98c747e.png

All in all have to watch for anything along that warm front early on.

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23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We should see a slight for 5% TOR I would think (maybe with 1730 update). If CAMS start spitting out some more aggressive convection ahead of the main line we may see enhanced risk for 10%. Dews 75+ with this shear is eye opening. 

I think a slight is close to a lock. I’m tracking severe more than rain around here lol. 

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think a slight is close to a lock. I’m tracking severe more than rain around here lol. 

Yeah overall the rain doesn't seem to be a big story here. We'll see some typical poor drainage flooding as the axis of heavier rain moves through but there is even a possibility that starts to falter. Almost looks like the cold front starts racing eastwards and becomes a bit removed from the better ulvl dynamics. Have to see how many breaks of sun we can muster in the morning but I suspect we are going to see lots of showers popping up but it won't take much for them to do much if they can get semi-decent cores. 

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52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If the HRRR is correct, there may be some enhanced tornado potential between 5 AM - Noon (from south to north across the region). 

Warm front lifting northwards during this period and is characterized by a very rich llvl theta-e airmass

image.thumb.png.7742ea3e3a75200f60bfc2e35dd6e638.png

As the rich llvl theta-e air transports northwards, the HRRR has a pocket of 3km CAPE > 200 J/KG surging northwards. This is some significant llvl CAPE. The greatest overall shear is a bit later in the day, however, the HRRR keeps 150+ 3km CAPE in place through the day. 

image.thumb.png.f1a9d65240a72c48c64582f9f98c747e.png

All in all have to watch for anything along that warm front early on.

This turn to the West has me reconsidering my two night backpack trip I had cancelled. Was planning a few nights on the AT NY/CT. 

 

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1 minute ago, KTBFFH1905 said:

This turn to the West has me reconsidering my two night backpack trip I had cancelled. Was planning a few nights on the AT NY/CT. 

 

ehhh even with the farther west track it probably wasn't a bad idea to cancel. The weather still won't be great. It will be pretty breezy out and with the wet ground there will be the risk for some downed trees. 

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh even with the farther west track it probably wasn't a bad idea to cancel. The weather still won't be great. It will be pretty breezy out and with the wet ground there will be the risk for some downed trees. 

I agree. I don't need to put myself in danger. As well first responders/rescue folks. We have had two bad accidents here in my area in the last week. Two teens hiking on cliffs last Friday night at midnight turned into a SAR operation for hours. 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

We should see a slight for 5% TOR I would think (maybe with 1730 update). If CAMS start spitting out some more aggressive convection ahead of the main line we may see enhanced risk for 10%. Dews 75+ with this shear is eye opening. 

 

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think a slight is close to a lock. I’m tracking severe more than rain around here lol. 

SPC declines and says head SW

5% is in E PA into NJ

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46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

RAP mesoanalysis still indicating >100-125 J of 3km CAPE by early afternoon with 0-1km helicity >200 m2s2. Pretty noteworthy stuff. Just have to see if we can get any mature, sustained updrafts going. 

Awfully dry in mid levels this far east of Debby. May be tough to get much of anything going in the open warm sector. 

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6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Awfully dry in mid levels this far east of Debby. May be tough to get much of anything going in the open warm sector. 

Would explain why mesos aren't very bullish in the open warm sector. Sometimes you see the HRRR go wild in these but for it not to be doing much may be telling. 

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