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Decrepid Debby/PRE - Flooding, Severe Threat


TalcottWx
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13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. 0.72” with radar losing intensity over the past couple frames. Hrrr pushes this through by dawn. May have a nice day on tap tomorrow afterall.

Might be able to get your softball game in tomorrow after all?

0.86" here so far....feels nice out too, not this 75 degree tropical rains that we have had recently

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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Might be able to get your softball game in tomorrow after all?

0.86" here so far....feels nice out too, not this 75 degree tropical rains that we have had recently

As long as the infield that doesn’t drain well can dry out. Otherwise I may have to sub in again for another team on Thursday lol. 

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Boring is fine. Later August through peak should be plenty active. Shouldn’t be our only bite at the apple though next time we’ll have a Bahamas tempest that’s captured by a cutoff on guidance at D5 but evolves to a kicker to Bermuda at D2. :lol: 

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Friday and Friday night are going to be intriguing for some tornado potential. With the axis of heaviest rain west, if we can keep the dirty warm sector free of widespread precipitation, that will give any cells a chance to develop mature enough updrafts to warrant the risk for a few brief tornadoes. Could even be some potential overnight as activity pushes east with the cold front. 

Greatest flood potential going to be PA into New York and then across the favored upslope regions in VT/NH but oof...with that llvl flow and moisture, it could be very ugly there. Guess one saving grace is hopefully the eastward progression is progressive. But I do fear that models are underestimating rainfall totals which will occur with the popup downpours and showers. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

that's alarming for D3 but I take these machine learning with a grain of salt :lol: 

Grain of salt for sure lol. If we see some substantial severe down in the Mid-Atlantic it may foreshadow some activity here. Still pretty funny to me that we’re days out from something meaningful here. Tropical tracking isn’t for the impatient.

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43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Grain of salt for sure lol. If we see some substantial severe down in the Mid-Atlantic it may foreshadow some activity here. Still pretty funny to me that we’re days out from something meaningful here. Tropical tracking isn’t for the impatient.

Very impressive llvl jet and with dewpoints probably 74-77 there will be more than sufficient llvl instability. What can be a killer on these setups is the atmosphere is just so moist and with no capping things just pop off and can struggle to mature. With the greatest forcing so far west, however, we may have room for increased tornado potential here during the day. 

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42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Very impressive llvl jet and with dewpoints probably 74-77 there will be more than sufficient llvl instability. What can be a killer on these setups is the atmosphere is just so moist and with no capping things just pop off and can struggle to mature. With the greatest forcing so far west, however, we may have room for increased tornado potential here during the day. 

It's interesting how we're coming at this from two different interest areas...  

I was mentioning in the Aug thread ( I think ) yesterday that Friday might have about a 9 hour window of Bahama Blue atmosphere ... having been hoisted N around the E side of Debra's soul.   I always thought that an impressive transport phenomenon

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