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Decrepid Debby/PRE - Flooding, Severe Threat


TalcottWx
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah south coast steal tonight and then congrats VT later this week. 

Could see some pretty bad flooding along the south coast tonight. Have to see if there is any room for some strong-to-severe thunderstorms/tornado risk, however, that might be more for Long Island. End of the week/weekend is extremely concerning for VT with upslope aided flow. Tonight though is an ugly look for like NYC area.

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27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Could see some pretty bad flooding along the south coast tonight. Have to see if there is any room for some strong-to-severe thunderstorms/tornado risk, however, that might be more for Long Island. End of the week/weekend is extremely concerning for VT with upslope aided flow. Tonight though is an ugly look for like NYC area.

Hrrr more like NYC and NJ

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Could see a decent looking bow echo become established across PA later on. Should that materialize that could have a big influence on northern edge of precip shield. 

12z NAM floods mass tonight

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5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z NAM floods mass tonight

 

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

3k is central mass to southern vt

Part of me wonders if this is a bit overdone on the northern extent. Have to watch the area outlined in the Slight Risk by the SPC. How much convection and how organized the convection becomes will be critical. This could rob much of the moisture. 

The sfc boundary is also pretty far south, however, it does appear there is a warm front aloft displaced much farther north (through central New England) so this could certainly be a focus for heavy precip north, but I think the convection would end up robbing alot of that moisture. There is some decent vort moving through though. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Part of me wonders if this is a bit overdone on the northern extent. Have to watch the area outlined in the Slight Risk by the SPC. How much convection and how organized the convection becomes will be critical. This could rob much of the moisture. 

The sfc boundary is also pretty far south, however, it does appear there is a warm front aloft displaced much farther north (through central New England) so this could certainly be a focus for heavy precip north, but I think the convection would end up robbing alot of that moisture. There is some decent vort moving through though. 

The 3K NAM might be a bit more realistic

 

1723078800-yjNaRXxrAnU.png

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

agreed, something like that seems more reasonable to me. With the focus well off to the south and then north right along the llvl warm front but those totals (on a widespread scale) may be overdone. 

We’ll have the usual winners and losers with this one with my backyard dry slotting :lol: 

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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not unusual in the winter.   Don't know about summer though in a situation like this.  

 

Well the boundary is there with the instability so makes sense that’s where the focus should be. Maybe a fronto band north of 1-2”? 

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CT is clearing and warming. Dew boundary is near the Pike. I could see that shallow light northerly drain getting mixed out easily. 

I can just make out an acceleration of an undercut murk density into NE CT tho -

you're right ( looking at sat ) elsewhere, but I wonder if this starts "BDing"

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