CoastalWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Meh except for VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Weenie run of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Yeah south coast steal tonight and then congrats VT later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 1 hour ago, kdxken said: I looked up St johnsbury yesterday. 17 inches of rain in June. My mistake it was July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 6 Author Share Posted August 6 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 2-4” is manageable and run of the mill in these CC days. We might see a big drop off n/s. Shoreline might get hammered IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah south coast steal tonight and then congrats VT later this week. Could see some pretty bad flooding along the south coast tonight. Have to see if there is any room for some strong-to-severe thunderstorms/tornado risk, however, that might be more for Long Island. End of the week/weekend is extremely concerning for VT with upslope aided flow. Tonight though is an ugly look for like NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Could see some pretty bad flooding along the south coast tonight. Have to see if there is any room for some strong-to-severe thunderstorms/tornado risk, however, that might be more for Long Island. End of the week/weekend is extremely concerning for VT with upslope aided flow. Tonight though is an ugly look for like NYC area. Hrrr more like NYC and NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hrrr more like NYC and NJ Son of Ida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah south coast steal tonight and then congrats VT later this week. I haven't posted about this system once throughout its entire life. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Could see a decent looking bow echo become established across PA later on. Should that materialize that could have a big influence on northern edge of precip shield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 NAM coming in a lil more amped up .. still think its a South Coast special picked up 0.41" this morning too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Could see a decent looking bow echo become established across PA later on. Should that materialize that could have a big influence on northern edge of precip shield. 12z NAM floods mass tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 3k is central mass to southern vt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z NAM floods mass tonight 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 3k is central mass to southern vt Part of me wonders if this is a bit overdone on the northern extent. Have to watch the area outlined in the Slight Risk by the SPC. How much convection and how organized the convection becomes will be critical. This could rob much of the moisture. The sfc boundary is also pretty far south, however, it does appear there is a warm front aloft displaced much farther north (through central New England) so this could certainly be a focus for heavy precip north, but I think the convection would end up robbing alot of that moisture. There is some decent vort moving through though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Part of me wonders if this is a bit overdone on the northern extent. Have to watch the area outlined in the Slight Risk by the SPC. How much convection and how organized the convection becomes will be critical. This could rob much of the moisture. The sfc boundary is also pretty far south, however, it does appear there is a warm front aloft displaced much farther north (through central New England) so this could certainly be a focus for heavy precip north, but I think the convection would end up robbing alot of that moisture. There is some decent vort moving through though. The 3K NAM might be a bit more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Interior should be jacks tonight with front not as far south as it looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The 3K NAM might be a bit more realistic agreed, something like that seems more reasonable to me. With the focus well off to the south and then north right along the llvl warm front but those totals (on a widespread scale) may be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: agreed, something like that seems more reasonable to me. With the focus well off to the south and then north right along the llvl warm front but those totals (on a widespread scale) may be overdone. We’ll have the usual winners and losers with this one with my backyard dry slotting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We’ll have the usual winners and losers with this one with my backyard dry slotting Actually, with some of your luck these past few years with rain you may end up floating away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Nam too far north. Hrrr makes sense along front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam too far north. Hrrr makes sense along front Not unusual in the winter. Don't know about summer though in a situation like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam too far north. Hrrr makes sense along front Where does it have the front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 11 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Where does it have the front? NYC to ACK or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NYC to ACK or so. Front is farther north. Hrrr ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not unusual in the winter. Don't know about summer though in a situation like this. Well the boundary is there with the instability so makes sense that’s where the focus should be. Maybe a fronto band north of 1-2”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Front is farther north. Hrrr ftl Wishcasting ftl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 CT is clearing and warming. Dew boundary is near the Pike. I could see that shallow light northerly drain getting mixed out easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wishcasting ftl You have been all week at beach. Wishing it all away ftl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Agree with Scoot though that the 3k progs seem a little far north given where it’s putting the boundary later on. We’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: CT is clearing and warming. Dew boundary is near the Pike. I could see that shallow light northerly drain getting mixed out easily. I can just make out an acceleration of an undercut murk density into NE CT tho - you're right ( looking at sat ) elsewhere, but I wonder if this starts "BDing" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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