Decrepid Debby/PRE - Flooding, Severe Threat

[CoastalWx]

Meh except for VT

[Brian5671]

Weenie run of the NAM

[CoastalWx]

Yeah south coast steal tonight and then congrats VT later this week. 

[kdxken]

  On 8/6/2024 at 11:10 AM, kdxken said:

I looked up St johnsbury yesterday. 17 inches of rain in June.

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My mistake it was July.

[TalcottWx]

  On 8/6/2024 at 11:26 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

2-4” is manageable and run of the mill in these CC days. 

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We might see a big drop off n/s. Shoreline might get hammered IMO.

[weatherwiz]

  On 8/6/2024 at 11:49 AM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah south coast steal tonight and then congrats VT later this week. 

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Could see some pretty bad flooding along the south coast tonight. Have to see if there is any room for some strong-to-severe thunderstorms/tornado risk, however, that might be more for Long Island. End of the week/weekend is extremely concerning for VT with upslope aided flow. Tonight though is an ugly look for like NYC area.

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/6/2024 at 12:52 PM, weatherwiz said:

Could see some pretty bad flooding along the south coast tonight. Have to see if there is any room for some strong-to-severe thunderstorms/tornado risk, however, that might be more for Long Island. End of the week/weekend is extremely concerning for VT with upslope aided flow. Tonight though is an ugly look for like NYC area.

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Hrrr more like NYC and NJ

[Brian5671]

  On 8/6/2024 at 1:20 PM, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr more like NYC and NJ

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Son of Ida

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 8/6/2024 at 11:49 AM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah south coast steal tonight and then congrats VT later this week. 

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I haven't posted about this system once throughout its entire life.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[weatherwiz]

Could see a decent looking bow echo become established across PA later on. Should that materialize that could have a big influence on northern edge of precip shield. 

[ma blizzard]

NAM coming in a lil more amped up .. still think its a South Coast special 

picked up 0.41" this morning too 

[ineedsnow]

  On 8/6/2024 at 2:00 PM, weatherwiz said:

Could see a decent looking bow echo become established across PA later on. Should that materialize that could have a big influence on northern edge of precip shield. 

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12z NAM floods mass tonight

[ineedsnow]

3k is central mass to southern vt

[weatherwiz]

  On 8/6/2024 at 2:05 PM, ineedsnow said:

12z NAM floods mass tonight

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  On 8/6/2024 at 2:07 PM, ineedsnow said:

3k is central mass to southern vt

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Part of me wonders if this is a bit overdone on the northern extent. Have to watch the area outlined in the Slight Risk by the SPC. How much convection and how organized the convection becomes will be critical. This could rob much of the moisture. 

The sfc boundary is also pretty far south, however, it does appear there is a warm front aloft displaced much farther north (through central New England) so this could certainly be a focus for heavy precip north, but I think the convection would end up robbing alot of that moisture. There is some decent vort moving through though. 

[Brian5671]

  On 8/6/2024 at 2:14 PM, weatherwiz said:

 

Part of me wonders if this is a bit overdone on the northern extent. Have to watch the area outlined in the Slight Risk by the SPC. How much convection and how organized the convection becomes will be critical. This could rob much of the moisture. 

The sfc boundary is also pretty far south, however, it does appear there is a warm front aloft displaced much farther north (through central New England) so this could certainly be a focus for heavy precip north, but I think the convection would end up robbing alot of that moisture. There is some decent vort moving through though. 

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The 3K NAM might be a bit more realistic

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Interior should be jacks tonight with front not as far south as it looked 

[weatherwiz]

  On 8/6/2024 at 2:17 PM, Brian5671 said:

The 3K NAM might be a bit more realistic

 

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agreed, something like that seems more reasonable to me. With the focus well off to the south and then north right along the llvl warm front but those totals (on a widespread scale) may be overdone. 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 8/6/2024 at 2:21 PM, weatherwiz said:

agreed, something like that seems more reasonable to me. With the focus well off to the south and then north right along the llvl warm front but those totals (on a widespread scale) may be overdone. 

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We’ll have the usual winners and losers with this one with my backyard dry slotting  

[weatherwiz]

  On 8/6/2024 at 2:34 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

We’ll have the usual winners and losers with this one with my backyard dry slotting  

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Actually, with some of your luck these past few years with rain you may end up floating away  

[CoastalWx]

Nam too far north. Hrrr makes sense along front 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 8/6/2024 at 2:43 PM, CoastalWx said:

Nam too far north. Hrrr makes sense along front 

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Not unusual in the winter.   Don't know about summer though in a situation like this.  

 

[Modfan2]

  On 8/6/2024 at 2:43 PM, CoastalWx said:

Nam too far north. Hrrr makes sense along front 

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Where does it have the front?

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/6/2024 at 2:59 PM, Modfan2 said:

Where does it have the front?

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NYC to ACK or so. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 8/6/2024 at 3:10 PM, CoastalWx said:

NYC to ACK or so. 

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Front is farther north. Hrrr ftl 

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/6/2024 at 2:50 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Not unusual in the winter.   Don't know about summer though in a situation like this.  

 

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Well the boundary is there with the instability so makes sense that’s where the focus should be. Maybe a fronto band north of 1-2”? 

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/6/2024 at 3:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Front is farther north. Hrrr ftl 

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Wishcasting ftl

[dendrite]

CT is clearing and warming. Dew boundary is near the Pike. I could see that shallow light northerly drain getting mixed out easily. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 8/6/2024 at 3:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

Wishcasting ftl

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You have been all week at beach. Wishing it all away ftl 

[dendrite]

Agree with Scoot though that the 3k progs seem a little far north given where it’s putting the boundary later on. We’ll see. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 8/6/2024 at 3:31 PM, dendrite said:

CT is clearing and warming. Dew boundary is near the Pike. I could see that shallow light northerly drain getting mixed out easily. 

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I can just make out an acceleration of an undercut murk density into NE CT tho -

you're right ( looking at sat ) elsewhere, but I wonder if this starts "BDing"