Decrepid Debby/PRE - Flooding, Severe Threat

[TalcottWx]

I hope everyone is having a nice summer. 

I made a threat for the flooding and severe threat from Debby. 

A flood watch was just issued for Southern Connecticut. 

Flood Watch

National Weather Service New York NY

306 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

 

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-060900-

/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0009.240806T1800Z-240807T1600Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern

New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern

Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-

Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-

Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern

Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-

Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-

Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern

Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-

306 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

 

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORNING...

 

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

 

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, including the following

  areas, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven,

  Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex,

  Southern New Haven and Southern New London, northeast New Jersey,

  including the following areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex,

  Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western

  Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union, and southeast New York,

  including the following areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York

  (Manhattan), Northeast Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens,

  Northern Westchester, Northwest Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond

  (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeast Suffolk, Southern Nassau,

  Southern Queens, Southern Westchester and Southwest Suffolk.

 

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

 

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,

  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur

  in urban areas quickly. Extensive street flooding and flooding of

  creeks and rivers are possible.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - Heavy rainfall results in the potential for flooding. While

    much of the flooding is expected to be localized, significant

    flooding is possible due to rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches

    per hour. Especially along fast responding rivers and

    streams, and in more urbanized locations.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood

Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding sh ould be prepared

to take action should flooding develop

[WxWatcher007]

For posterity 

 

And while this isn’t likely to be a wind event, especially if Debby stays inland, we don’t get these probs often

[powderfreak]

44 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I made a threat for the flooding and severe threat from Debby. 

A flood watch was just issued for Southern Connecticut. 

306 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

 

Is the Tuesday-Wednesday flood watch related to Debby?

Looked like PRE wouldn’t even be until Friday or so?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Is the Tuesday-Wednesday flood watch related to Debby?

Looked like PRE wouldn’t even be until Friday or so?

No 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

No 

Just a primer for Debby

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Is the Tuesday-Wednesday flood watch related to Debby?

Looked like PRE wouldn’t even be until Friday or so?

Beer?

[TalcottWx]

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Is the Tuesday-Wednesday flood watch related to Debby?

Looked like PRE wouldn’t even be until Friday or so?

I wondered this earlier, but figured it was the easiest way to refer to the event. It seemed wrong to list the dates it occurred between. I can tweak it to also mention a stationary band. 

[ineedsnow]

It's really amazing how different some models are this close in

[WxWatcher007]

GFS would REALLY be pulling off a coup if it’s right about Debby dying on the GA/Alabama line rather than riding north. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs vs the world. 

[Damage In Tolland]

When it’s against its own ensembles.. you don’t even mention it 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When it’s against its own ensembles.. you don’t even mention it 

There’s a cluster of hang back gefs members that eventually get swept ots like the op.
 

Nothing else has this though so fading it makes sense.

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS would REALLY be pulling off a coup if it’s right about Debby dying on the GA/Alabama line rather than riding north. 

starting to wonder if the center pulls towards the building storms to the east.. and ends up in the Atlantic quicker

[WxWatcher007]

Super ensemble is still useful for this reason. Until we see more here the GFS is barely worth consideration imo. 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

West is flaccid. 

[WxWatcher007]

Agree. If we’re talking most impactful, some type of regeneration/landfall near the SC/NC border and NNE track off Ocean City to across the south coast would be it.

The trend has been west and inland though. Kind of crazy that we’re still so far out in tropical tracking standards so shifts remain likely. 

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah if you want SNE  ImPAcTs, the offshore track is better

[WxWatcher007]

Meh right now on the models. 

[moneypitmike]

https://nypost.com/2024/08/05/us-news/hurricane-debby-blows-1-million-worth-of-cocaine-onto-florida-beach/

[dendrite]

6z gfs is back to 5-7” for VT. There would be crazy impacts with that. 

[WxWatcher007]

The flood watch in southern CT is a good call. Much of the guidance has a good signal for rain later this evening/early Wednesday that could lead to a few inches. The axis of the heaviest however is still unclear.

Meanwhile the GFS has adjusted away from its buried in the SE look and importantly is more robust verbatim as the remnant/post tropical low reaches the region. At least at 06z. Breezy at the coast on both the GFS and Euro for the wind wishers.

As we finally see Debby reach the Atlantic we’ll see if the guidance trends back away from those far west and weaker solutions. I should note that even those weaker runs overnight dumped 3+ in many spots. We’re likely going to get soaked regardless. 

[Patrick-02540]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

https://nypost.com/2024/08/05/us-news/hurricane-debby-blows-1-million-worth-of-cocaine-onto-florida-beach/

What a waste.  

[kdxken]

53 minutes ago, dendrite said:

6z gfs is back to 5-7” for VT. There would be crazy impacts with that. 

I looked up St johnsbury yesterday. 17 inches of rain in June.

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I looked up St johnsbury yesterday. 17 inches of rain in June.

Wow. That’s insane.

[CoastalWx]

Looks meh 

[TalcottWx]

53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The flood watch in southern CT is a good call. Much of the guidance has a good signal for rain later this evening/early Wednesday that could lead to a few inches. The axis of the heaviest however is still unclear.

Meanwhile the GFS has adjusted away from its buried in the SE look and importantly is more robust verbatim as the remnant/post tropical low reaches the region. At least at 06z. Breezy at the coast on both the GFS and Euro for the wind wishers.

As we finally see Debby reach the Atlantic we’ll see if the guidance trends back away from those far west and weaker solutions. I should note that even those weaker runs overnight dumped 3+ in many spots. We’re likely going to get soaked regardless. 

I'm checking out some model runs this morning. It's definitely more wet up to I-84 or so.

We'll see which way it ticks. It looks meh along and north of the pike IMHO.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2-4” is manageable and run of the mill in these CC days. 

[Chrisrotary12]

The computer guidance can't agree on today/tomorrow let alone Friday/Saturday.