Potential POCKETS 5+, at most MAX 12" rain by 18z Sunday. Suggest OBS Tue-Sunday only when exceeding 5". Already at 12z/Wed "tiny" pockets 5-7" I195 NNJ/NYC area

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Well if you have things to do outside, gardening etc my suggestion is to do it now as it is currently sunny and dry in my neck of the woods but that looks to change bigly later on

Did it in 90 degree heat with a 99 degree index.  Thatched, mowed, seeded ($27 a bag) and covered with topsoil (only $10 a bag).  I didn't faint, but I usually melt in heat.  Maybe getting used to this inferno?  

[winterwx21]

Euro ends the rain Friday night now too like the CMC. Saturday looking like a dry day now. 

[Rtd208]

[Rtd208]

Euro op total QPF thru 120 hours.

 

[jm1220]

New round of convection along the LIE. 

[Rtd208]

The radar is pretty much exploding now. Alot of developing storms.

[Roger Smith]

I would say 3-6 in rains likely later today in a corridor from Allentown PA to about Raritan Bay, 2-4 in would be a general result in metro NYC and LI, CT. Later in week only looks to be 1-2 in potential but local max of 3" possible. 

[jm1220]

Will probably need a flood warning soon for that area of central Nassau and Suffolk along the LIE-training storms again along this sea breeze/frontal boundary. 

[Rtd208]

Latest HRRR

[Rjay]

Pouring again 

[MJO812]

Ukie

[Snowlover11]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie

holy hell

[Cfa]

Dumping rain and deep thunder in Bohemia.

[MJO812]

It's about to pour.  Getting really dark here.

[bluewave]

Picked up a quick .41 here in 20 min with the heavy downpour.

[nycwinter]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's about to pour.  Getting really dark here.

enjoying your vacation week at home?

[Gravity Wave]

If anything things are getting started faster than expected compared to the HRRR.

[MANDA]

Some places in this forum are going to have 8 day totals (Saturday to Saturday) of 7"+.

I'm at 1.62" as of now and that is a lower end total compared to some.

[Rtd208]

[jm1220]

A few places around Dix Hills and Holbrook have 2” already. Here-2 drops and I can walk to where it’s pouring. Occasional thunder. 

[Roger Smith]

Flood flooding is the worst kind. (guess they meant stream flooding?)

[bluewave]

Impressive rates at ISP with 1.03” in only the last 15 minutes.

 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kisp

[RedSky]

8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Flood flooding is the worst kind. (guess they meant stream flooding?)

I have seen flood flooding before it's like scuba gear bad

 

[Rtd208]

Right now the bulk of the storms are from the Driscoll Bridge on south in NJ. I expect that to change.

[psv88]

 Crazy flooding along the northern state parkway in Melville. Flash flood warning warranted 

[Cfa]

Close call CTG strike in the parking lot, I’m inside so I didn’t see it but I felt the impact of it and the thunder. Power flickering.

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Right now the bulk of the storms are from the Driscoll Bridge on south in NJ. I expect that to change.

 

Looks like the WRF-ARW and the RDPS were closest to the 18-20Z evolution overall.   I think 22-01Z is the window for most of the area north of that, the steering flow veers more W to SW.  

[Rtd208]

12z ensembles total mean QPF thru 120 hours.

[winterwx21]

Storms missing me just to the south. I can hear the thunder. 

[psv88]

Is that it? 0.02 at home, over 2 inches 2 miles away.