Potential POCKETS 5+, at most MAX 12" rain by 18z Sunday. Suggest OBS Tue-Sunday only when exceeding 5". Already at 12z/Wed "tiny" pockets 5-7" I195 NNJ/NYC area

[doncat]

Just 0.16" here since midnight and 0.79" past two days.

[Tatamy]

Winds are really cranking now ahead of that squall line to my west.  Have had a recent gust to 32 mph.  

[winterwx21]

These cells in NJ ahead of the main batch in PA are tiny. Had a 1 minute moderate shower here.

Latest HRRR says our area could get a good storm around 5pm. Later today and tonight doesn't look like a big widespread event, but there will be some spots that get hit hard. 

[Rtd208]

New Tornado Watch until 10 pm.

[Tatamy]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

These cells in NJ ahead of the main batch in PA are tiny. Had a 1 minute moderate shower here.

Latest HRRR says our area could get a good storm around 5pm. Later today and tonight doesn't look like a big widespread event, but there will be some spots that get hit hard. 

Those cells are moving at a forward speed of 50-60 mph by my estimate.  The rain won’t last too long in any one area.

[Rtd208]

[Pappa Giorgio]

[weathermedic]

Wind gust of 47 mph at Lag this past hour.

[Tatamy]

Not detecting any lightning here with the approach of the squall line.

[Rtd208]

Some pictures from Tioga County PA where major flooding is occuring. 

[MANDA]

41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Some pictures from Tioga County PA where major flooding is occuring. 

Could have been across our area had the track not shifted to the left by a rather decent distance over the last few days.  Final track a far cry from original offshore track.

[Rtd208]

The line in E. PA has some pretty heavy rain with it. FFWarning for Bethlehem PA area

[Tatamy]

7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The line in E. PA has some pretty heavy rain with it. FFWarning for Bethlehem PA area

We are getting a good downpour with this line.  We have received 0.65” in the past half hour.  Rate is currently about 1” hour.

[Allsnow]

Hrrr looks very unimpressive 

[jm1220]

47 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Could have been across our area had the track not shifted to the left by a rather decent distance over the last few days.  Final track a far cry from original offshore track.

5-8” widespread would be a very big deal yes which is what was predicted 4 days ago. Like you said the track went left and the stalled front a couple days ago was I think more hit or miss than expected. I have maybe 1.25” or so for this combined event, maybe a couple tenths more with whatever showers come tonight. But a 20 minute drive west of me got pounded during the stalled front event and has up to 5”.

Quite breezy here, lots of small branches down. Pretty big branch fell on a neighbor’s fence. 

[psv88]

Some big gusts into the mid 40s across the island. Small branches down around the area, nothing too bad though. 

[bluewave]

Flash flood emergency in that part of PA. They surpassed the previous record river crest set on 1-19-96. That’s when they had the record rains and snowmelt along with ice jam flooding with the January thaw that year. 
 

 

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hrrr looks very unimpressive 

It dies out but new cells refire 

[Tatamy]

Still raining here but at a much lower rate.  Total for the day is 1.30”.  Event total since 8/6 is up to 3.23”

[Stormlover74]

Radar looks much better than what the hrrr has

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Radar looks much better than what the hrrr has

Meh…looks ugly imo 

[Pappa Giorgio]

The ground is already super saturated so it won't take much to cause flash flooding.

[2112wxgrl]

Some heavier radar returns over my part of Wantage, NJ. Nothing more than heavy rain(wouldn’t say it is a downpour). Hardly any wind either.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Meh…looks ugly imo 

maybe a half inch at best--even less as you head east

[allgame830]

Tornado Warning just posted for Middletown NY

[wdrag]

SR94 near Hardyston in Sussex County NJ::  total 2 large tree branches down on wires NB side at 245PM, one attended to by electric company. Then at Wantage NJ 8 S of High Point,  2.88/hr rainfall RATE between roughly 445-5P with once in a while rolling thunder. AWN gage had increased 1.6" in about 30 minutes ending 505PM... will confirm rainfall total on Stratus climate gage when I can go outside but I suspect at least 1.6" since 8AM. 

 

 

 

 

 

Sent

 

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

It dies out but new cells refire 

The leading part of the line that's hitting our area really fell apart. Just some light rain moving in here now. Looks a little more intense to the south and we'll see what other cells form, but overall this event tonight isn't looking very impressive. Will be some areas that get hit though. New run of HRRR fires it up a little to my south and east.

[2112wxgrl]

Heavier rain now, breezy. I’ll have to drain my pool once this clears. Third time in a week for draining. Looking forward to the nice dry weather coming up.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The leading part of the line that's hitting our area really fell apart. Just some light rain moving in here now. Looks a little more intense to the south and we'll see what other cells form, but overall this event tonight isn't looking very impressive. Will be some areas that get hit though. New run of HRRR fires it up a little to my south and east.

Yeah just a quick shower. It is what it is. Had 2.8" at home since Tuesday 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah just a quick shower. It is what it is. Had 2.8" at home since Tuesday 

Exactly. The main part of the event was the stalled front