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Potential POCKETS 5+, at most MAX 12" rain by 18z Sunday. Suggest OBS Tue-Sunday only when exceeding 5". Already at 12z/Wed "tiny" pockets 5-7" I195 NNJ/NYC area

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Brian5671
Brian5671

GFS and Euro now fairly run of the mill for rainfall around here 3-4 inches over 5 days won't cause that much in the way of trouble...and the west trend may not be done yet

forkyfork
forkyfork
Brian5671
Brian5671

For a tropical system?   Not really a big deal over several days other than some urban or small stream issues....  7 or 10 inches like earlier runs yes.    Need to watch for trends but today has shown

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Looks like the greatest HREF potential of 5.00”+ this time will be  just to our west. But there could still be enough heavy rain over NJ into SE NY to exacerbate flooding potential in the areas that got 5-7” a few days ago. We will also have the potential for a few embedded tornadoes. The severe potential may increase a bit if we can overperform on high temperatures tomorrrow with the stronger WAR than originally forecast. Plus parts of Long Island like Long Beach may see 50 mph gusts with the tight gradient as Debby goes by.


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wdrag

wdrag

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the greatest HREF potential of 5.00”+ this time will be  just to our west. But there could still be enough heavy rain over NJ into SE NY to exacerbate flooding potential in the areas that got 5-7” a few days ago. We will also have the potential for a few embedded tornadoes. The severe potential may increase a bit if we can overperform on high temperatures tomorrrow with the stronger WAR than originally forecast. Plus parts of Long Island like Long Beach may see 50 mph gusts with the tight gradient as Debby goes by.


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imo a good post incorporating machine guidance... and I'm in agreement.  My take only... mm pretty certain FFA needed for tomorrow in NNJ, e PA and maybe a wind advisory for the coastal plain.  

Showery bands will continue rotating n-nw from the Atlantic and our sodden area should not be downplaying-dismissive the potential impacts here by Friday evening. I have to think power outages by tomorrow evening from squalls, possible svr and excessive short duration rainfall.

Wantage had more rain overnight than what occurred Tuesday evening... (1/2").  

So for many this will be no big deal going forward, except if you can't get home due to flooding-downed wires.  the HREF referenced abeve does not include anything after 8P Friday evening when the I95 corridor gets a pretty good slug of additional water. I'm following HREF, HRRR, RAP, RGEM, HRDPS trends. All of these could be a tad high but the max's and bullseyes will belpful. 

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uofmiami

uofmiami

Posted
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39 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

More concerned about wind on LI?

Probably gusts to 40mph right along shoreline. Otherwise maybe some gusts to 30mph over island. Saturated ground perhaps some issues from it.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I need to drive west across the (entire) state tomorrow. My wife and kid will be following a few hours later. How bad will the conditions be? Is the wind going to be as bad further west as expected around here?

This isn't a trip that can be delayed. 

Winds don't look bad for NY-more of a heavy rain threat-winds CT/NY border and eastward.

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted

Based on the totals over Hunterdon County last 24 hours....never under estimate the potential from tropical downpours.  They can easily over perform.  Totals of 1 to 1.5".

Could be an active day of weather tomorrow.  Gusty winds, heavy downpours, local flooding and potential severe.  Reverence @wdrag post from earlier.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
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22 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Based on the totals over Hunterdon County last 24 hours....never under estimate the potential from tropical downpours.  They can easily over perform.  Totals of 1 to 1.5".

Could be an active day of weather tomorrow.  Gusty winds, heavy downpours, local flooding and potential severe.  Reverence @wdrag post from earlier.

Yeah your area could see another 2 to 3" by saturday 

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted

Another quarter inch here this morning as our wet week continues. 

HRRR and NAM 3km look similar for tomorrow into tomorrow night. Mostly dry for most of the day tomorrow as Debby passes well to the west, and then we get into some action around 5 or 6pm. Looks like a typical scattered convection event for tomorrow night with some places getting little and other places getting 1 to 2 inches from downpours. Severe weather threat as well as others have mentioned. All over by early Saturday morning. 

Then an amazing stretch of weather for the weekend through mid next week. Sunshine with highs in the 80s and dew points in the 50s. A much needed drying out period and the nicest stretch of the summer. 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I didn't expect this, was only looking for light scattered showers today...

I think today and tomorrow will be more active than forecast. Obviously, the big rains will be West of our area but the thunderstorm risk is there 

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