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Potential POCKETS 5+, at most MAX 12" rain by 18z Sunday. Suggest OBS Tue-Sunday only when exceeding 5". Already at 12z/Wed "tiny" pockets 5-7" I195 NNJ/NYC area

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Brian5671
Brian5671

GFS and Euro now fairly run of the mill for rainfall around here 3-4 inches over 5 days won't cause that much in the way of trouble...and the west trend may not be done yet

forkyfork
forkyfork
Brian5671
Brian5671

For a tropical system?   Not really a big deal over several days other than some urban or small stream issues....  7 or 10 inches like earlier runs yes.    Need to watch for trends but today has shown

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see GFS sped up the timing and ends the rain during the overnight Friday night like the CMC and Euro. Also it doesn't give us much rain with the remnants of Debby Friday into Friday night. We might get more than what GFS shows, but today was the main event for the week. Debby's remnants Friday isn't looking like a big deal. 

Doubt it will be since the center will go so far west of us. Might just be a few batches of showers. 

I have just under 1”, light misty rain now. Was a very haves/have nots event which happens when this was such a convective driven event. 6 miles WNW of me has 4”+ and just south of me has up to 3”. The S Nassau barrier island summer rain death shield held up as well. 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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5.00”+ from Bergen into the Bronx. New 24hr rainfall record for Howell Township, NJ at 6.79”.


  

BERGEN COUNTY...
BOGOTA                       5.47 IN   1108 PM 08/06   AWS

  

BRONX COUNTY...
FORDHAM                      5.38 IN   1110 PM 08/06   NYSM

 

Observation Date 8/7/2024 6:00 AM
Submitted 8/07/2024 5:56 AM
Gauge Catch 6.79 in.
Notes This is a record amount of rainfall in 24 hours in this area of Hopewell Township, New Jersey with more than 5 inches falling in less than 2 hours early last evening.
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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Doubt it will be since the center will go so far west of us. Might just be a few batches of showers. 

I have just under 1”, light misty rain now. Was a very haves/have nots event which happens when this was such a convective driven event. 6 miles WNW of me has 4”+ and just south of me has up to 3”. The S Nassau barrier island summer rain death shield held up as well. 

Many people think a hurricane is coming. Weekend plans are being canceled. People are going to br surprised when all we get is a few showers

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Many people think a hurricane is coming. Weekend plans are being canceled. People are going to br surprised when all we get is a few showers

and it's gone by mid-day Saturday

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Sn0waddict

Sn0waddict

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Many people think a hurricane is coming. Weekend plans are being canceled. People are going to br surprised when all we get is a few showers

Later Saturday into Sunday could actually be quite nice.

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winterwarlock

winterwarlock

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Many people think a hurricane is coming. Weekend plans are being canceled. People are going to br surprised when all we get is a few showers

and its going to be a pretty nice weekend actually..most of the day Saturday will see sun and sunday mixed skies. Alot of gloom and doom forecasts for all week but in reality just alot of rain last night for many and then Debbies waste really is only going to give an inch or so and be out of here quickly

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wdrag

wdrag

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Posted

Not sure if anyone is noticing the 06z-09z/7EC op, HRRR and RAP (future forecasts though may be overdone at times).  Lots of rain coming. This morning all the yellows on radar at least 0.1/hr.  and I80 south should do ok in the bands... adding up.  PW near 1.9" today -Thursday along and south of I80 and up to 2.6 Friday night. Modeling is trying to get some decent showers moving north tomorrow, maybe in clusters ahead of the warm front.  I'm not one believing an inch or less the rest of the way NYC.  Doesn't mean I'm right but this is just not time to let the guard down.

 

Additionally coastal plain winds Fri afternoon gust 40-50 MPH with fully leaved wet leaves and sodden ground making it fairly ripe for uproots and power outages I95 eastward.  Not even convinced so far west on the Debbie remains track.  Also sever later Fri? 

PRE will need to be explored late today for Thursday afternoon or night.  If the future HRRR/RAP back off, then my thinking is incorrect the relatively dry NYC comments will be correct but I myself am looking for 1.5-5" more inches NNJ/NYC/SE NYS by 18z Sat. 

 

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's funny-we knew it was off (meaning big impacts) Monday but it takes 3-4 days for the talking heads to catch up.

Doesn’t mean we can’t have moderate impacts just like what @wdragjust stated above your post. Gotta see how things develop 

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Snowlover11

Snowlover11

Posted
Posted

people calling it off are making a big mistake, yeah maybe we wont get the 8-10” models were printing out but most of us got whacked last night so even if we get a general 1-3”+ it’s still going to cause issues. Plus, if we get any wind gusts it might bring down trees given the wet grounds that we currently have.

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