Potential POCKETS 5+, at most MAX 12" rain by 18z Sunday. Suggest OBS Tue-Sunday only when exceeding 5". Already at 12z/Wed "tiny" pockets 5-7" I195 NNJ/NYC area

[Brian5671]

HRRR is wild-3-5 inches of rain in a short period of time with jackpots to 6-7

[WestBabylonWeather]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

HRRR is wild-3-5 inches of rain in a short period of time with jackpots to 6-7

That heavy stuff is probably not setting up on LI I bet it shifts 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

That heavy stuff is probably not setting up on LI I bet it shifts 

I feel like it will be along and north of 80 

[SnowGoose69]

The front is not pressing as far south as expected yesterday so this could be bad for the area whereas I leaned more central NJ or E PA 24 hours ago

[Brian5671]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The front is not pressing as far south as expected yesterday so this could be bad for the area whereas I leaned more central NJ or E PA 24 hours ago

Where is it now and where do you think it stalls?

[winterwx21]

Yeah that 13z run of HRRR is wild with training right across our area. It gives parts of Middlesex County over 6 inches of rain, but who knows if that's right. HRRR could be overdoing it and of course it's hard for it to tell exactly where the worst will happen. Obviously MAJOR potential for this evening though. Today looks much worse than the remnants of Debby for our area. 

[psv88]

What time is the worse of the rain for the island on the HRRR?

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Yeah that 13z run of HRRR is wild with training right across our area. It gives parts of Middlesex County over 6 inches of rain, but who knows if that's right. HRRR could be overdoing it and it and of course it's hard for it to tell exactly where the worst will happen. Obviously MAJOR potential for this evening though. Today looks much worse than the remnants of Debby for our area. 

I think we'll see those amounts. Where is the question

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Where is it now and where do you think it stalls?

 

Its about a Danbury to Sussex County line.  I am not sure it makes it much past around New Brunswick by this evening.  I felt yesterday it would clear safely south of the metro by 15-16z.  We should see cells form on it too as early as 17Z, especially NYC east

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

That heavy stuff is probably not setting up on LI I bet it shifts 

Seems like a bit of a model battle between there being heavy convection over us or more general heavy rain well north of us along I-90 and more scattered down here. HRRR/RAP are focusing it here vs the NAM and other short range models further north. Whatever fires will have a ton of juice to work with since dewpoints are 75+.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Well if you have things to do outside, gardening etc my suggestion is to do it now as it is currently sunny and dry in my neck of the woods but that looks to change bigly later on

[Stormlover74]

Definitely looks like PA will be the place to be for Debby's remnants

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Definitely looks like PA will be the place to be for Debby's remnants

Basically gets absorbed into a fairly fast moving cold front-gone from here by mid-day Saturday.  Maybe another inch of rain from that locally

[mgerb]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Definitely looks like PA will be the place to be for Debby's remnants

Maybe so, but still 100+ hrs out, so too early for "definitely." 

As for tonight, HRRR (14Z below) keeps keying in on this area. FWIW (perhaps not much), it seems to have a good handle on the southern extent of the convection in NW PA, whereas some other mesos are further north. 

 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Maybe so, but still 100+ hrs out, so too early for "definitely." 

As for tonight, HRRR (14Z below) keeps keying in on this area. FWIW (perhaps not much), it seems to have a good handle on the southern extent of the convection in NW PA, whereas some other mesos are further north. 

 

Yeah it can still change for sure

[jm1220]

Beginning of the convection firing across E Suffolk. We’ll see how much that expands. 

[Stormlover74]

Fwiw the hrdps likes LI and Central nj at least initially 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs crushes central pa Friday and Saturday 

[Rmine1]

Raining in brightwaters. Popped up out of nowhere 

 

edit. Pouring in brightwaters 

[Rjay]

Pouring

[winterwx21]

CMC very fast with timing now. It ends the rain a little after midnight Friday night and gives us a dry Saturday. 

[jm1220]

Can see the cumulus towers and dark skies off to my south. Absolutely sultry here. Like a FL summer afternoon. 

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

CMC very fast with timing now. It ends the rain a little after midnight Friday night and gives us a dry Saturday. 

And gfs has worst of it Saturday morning

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

CMC very fast with timing now. It ends the rain a little after midnight Friday night and gives us a dry Saturday. 

Yeah moves out much faster which makes sense as it all gains latitude along with a cold front sweeping east...

[Rjay]

First flash flood warning of the day 

[mgerb]

Enhanced upgrade: 

[Snowlover11]

“LI DOESNT GET STORMS”

sorry had to poke a little fun. nobody knows where the axis of the heavy amounts will fall, we will have to wait in real time to determine that axis.

[jm1220]

Debby remnants look very TS Lee-like and drench the same region. The orographic lift on SE flow will be a big factor too. There might be an area in PA that gets drenched both today and on Fri from Debby. For us after today we have another shot when the front comes back north and as Debby leaves on Sat AM. 

[SRRTA22]

I think something is trying to form on top of me here in JC

[psv88]

86/80/101 in commack now, nasty