Potential POCKETS 5+, at most MAX 12" rain by 18z Sunday. Suggest OBS Tue-Sunday only when exceeding 5". Already at 12z/Wed "tiny" pockets 5-7" I195 NNJ/NYC area

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

0z

More of a consensus now.    Big rains west of the track once it get into the northeast US

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

More of a consensus now.    Big rains west of the track once it get into the northeast US

Seems like models were playing around with the “bury it in the SE” scenario at 18z but agreed. Where the heaviest rain here is depends on where the trough sets up and how fast Debby/remnants come north. The “highest risk” area is probably the Poconos/Catskills east to N NJ and Hudson Valley but could be further east if the trough comes in faster/further east and boots it NE. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

More of a consensus now.    Big rains west of the track once it get into the northeast US

Still some time for wobbles up here

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Why am I getting weenies for posting the cone ?

[Rjay]

Cmc backed down a bit as well.   

 

[Rtd208]

[Rtd208]

[winterwx21]

After the CMC cut amounts in half tonight, the Euro just came in more to the west and weaker with the remnants of Debby. It now gives a lot of area just 1 to 2 inches of rain for Friday into Saturday. We still should get a good soaking from it, but we seem to be trending away from it being a huge event that would cause a lot of flooding. Still a long way to go though. The main focus right now should be on later today/tonight anyway, as some of the mesos are showing potential for several inches of rain in spots that could cause significant flooding. 

[Rtd208]

[Rtd208]

[Rtd208]

 

[wdrag]

No changes from my view, though tomorrow I may shorten up the yield to Saturday, but still not convinced its done by 21z Sat. This afternoon into tomorrow morning will be very large... 06z/6 NAM  and HRRR versions I think are onto max amounts... placement always imperfect but close.  Might have our first 5+ report tomorrow morning. 

[bluewave]

Strong HREF signal for locally 5”+ from the PRE next 48 hrs where the best training eventually sets up.

[Snowlover11]

About what time this afternoon/tonight does it roll in?

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

About what time this afternoon/tonight does it roll in?

Looks like 5pm give or take.

[Brian5671]

5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

After the CMC cut amounts in half tonight, the Euro just came in more to the west and weaker with the remnants of Debby. It now gives a lot of area just 1 to 2 inches of rain for Friday into Saturday. We still should get a good soaking from it, but we seem to be trending away from it being a huge event that would cause a lot of flooding. Still a long way to go though. The main focus right now should be on later today/tonight anyway, as some of the mesos are showing potential for several inches of rain in spots that could cause significant flooding. 

Today/tonight's event might be the main event..remnants of Debby look to be more west now.

[Rjay]

The NAM is a beefed up

 

[Sn0waddict]

Meanwhile the 3k is nothing close to that lol

[Rjay]

^ Hr 60 vs hr 84

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Meanwhile the 3k is nothing close to that lol

We probably get dumped on late today/tonight from the stalled front and a wave traveling along the front, then maybe again briefly on Thu as Debby approaches and the front comes back north. The meat of the Debby remnants looks likely to go west of us and favor PA/upstate NY from the models overnight. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We probably get dumped on late today/tonight from the stalled front and a wave traveling along the front, then maybe again briefly on Thu as Debby approaches and the front comes back north. The meat of the Debby remnants looks likely to go west of us and favor PA/upstate NY from the models overnight. 

That will be a blessing for anyone who gets 3-5 inches tonight/tomorrow

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, Rjay said:

^ Hr 60 vs hr 84

True. Though even if you look through hourly 60 they definitely are not on the same page. Regardless I lean towards the side of somewhere in this area is gonna get dumped on with a ton of rain tonight.

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That will be a blessing for anyone who gets 3-5 inches tonight/tomorrow

We’re not out of the woods from that but the ridge looks to be stronger and push the system/remnants west as of now. If the trough becomes stronger and forces a further east track again we might still get it. 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Strong HREF signal for locally 5”+ from the PRE next 48 hrs where the best training eventually sets up.

excellent use of guidance---  see those 5's and 7's tween i80-I78 and ne MD.  the idea is there... might be off a little bit but we will know more tomorrow.  Impressive amounts also on the RAP and 06z EC.  Wont surprise me if a flood emergency may be needed for a few urban locations by Saturday morning.   Not the worst ever, but life threatening for a few people for sure, just in my opinion.  Now to pinpoint max's within 10 miles with 3 hours evacuation notice, if it gets that bad. 

[Allsnow]

[Santa Claus]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

lol that is such a terrible track for the carolinas jeez

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr thru 4am. Very little south of 95 where as most of the metro gets blasted

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Our time to get slammed for our sub forum might be tonight, models are really keying in on the I-80 corridor down to maybe TTN for the front to stall out and wave travel along it. Whatever happens with Debby might be an afterthought. Probably another window for heavy rain when the front lift back north ahead of Debby. 

[SRRTA22]

MCS near Buffalo already looks pretty organized for what it is