Gulf Stream to Shut Down this Century

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing

[jbenedet]

This is a good read. A few years old but without hyperbole. Also less “predictive”; much more of what is already occurring and why…

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00143-5

My feelings are far Western Europe (Spain, Ireland, Portugal, parts of northern/western France) and Great Britain are asymmetrically exposed to a colder climate while the eastern CONUS is asymmetrically exposed to much warmer outcomes as a result of this.

The arctic Labrador current is seeing similar effects, at an even faster rate. And if the Gulf Stream were to significantly slow —what does that mean for heat transport? We then have warmer SST’s pooling in the western Atlantic, potentially up to the mid Atlantic region…Not really a prediction at this point. Seems that it’s already subtly happening…As I type this, seeing multiple buoys reporting SST’s in upper 60’s from NE MA to just south of Portland Maine. And we have another month before peaking…

Fastest rate of warming in the region where the Labrador current ends its journey…fastest rate of cooling where the Gulf Stream ends its trek…

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

This is a good read. A few years old but without hyperbole. Also less “predictive”; much more of what is already occurring and why…

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00143-5

My feelings are far Western Europe (Spain, Ireland, Portugal, parts of northern/western France) and Great Britain are asymmetrically exposed to a colder climate while the eastern CONUS is asymmetrically exposed to much warmer outcomes as a result of this.

The arctic Labrador current is seeing similar effects, at an even faster rate. And if the Gulf Stream were to significantly slow —what does that mean for heat transport? We then have warmer SST’s pooling in the western Atlantic, potentially up to the mid Atlantic region…Not really a prediction at this point. Seems that it’s already subtly happening…As I type this, seeing multiple buoys reporting SST’s in upper 60’s from NE MA to just south of Portland Maine. And we have another month before peaking…

Fastest rate of warming in the region where the Labrador current ends its journey…fastest rate of cooling where the Gulf Stream ends its trek…

 

The common denominator is that the NW Atlantic warm pool and attendant 500 mb height and temperature records are much more impressive than the colder records from south of Greenland to Northern Europe. 
 

 

 

tps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01159-7.epdf?sharing_token=_FVaOVyABkcD2Hudkuy4HdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0O_gxR6rgaJtPXjMaI-B_Efht4SyFms8mqqnoqmB-1adVBLGM5Ox8NTZgYnk58C8f_MqmRXlgMUKAvhPoz3ntaVpIMcZZ9PrSyXcXowWePIeqVtKWaAjhHN6qpaUvjsKJPMu2-ItgHqBkpP-ekBm2TbTkyKT4Ld921Svm7C1wJQmod5-Am_0W6rnLf3GjdTJ9U%3D&tracking_referrer=www.theguardian.com

Abstract

The northeastern United States (NEUS) and the adjacent Northwest Atlantic Shelf (NWS) have emerged as warming hotspots, but the connection between them remains unexplored. Here we use gridded observational and reanalysis datasets to show that the twentieth-century surface air temperature increase along the coastal NEUS is exceptional on the continental and hemispheric scale and is induced by a combination of two factors: the sea surface temperature (SST) increase in the NWS associated with a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and atmospheric circulation changes associated with a more persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation. These connections are important because AMOC slowdown and NWS warming are projected to continue. A survey of climate model simulations indicates that realistic SST representation at high spatial resolution might be a minimum requirement to capture the observed pattern of coastal warming, suggesting that prior projection-based assessments may not have captured key features in this populous region.

 

 

[jbenedet]

@bluewave

Yes I am in agreement with that. 

[jbenedet]

The Gulf of Maine may also be seeing more warming due to higher volumes of water via river/stream watersheds as warming climate inducing higher precipitable water in New England region. Not only is this water fresh, but it’s also a lot warmer than the Gulf of Maine. This could also be compounding the fresh water effects of melting sea ice noted above….

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/2/2024 at 10:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing

What is interesting is the implication that the cessation of the gulf stream could cause a dramtic cooling over N America and Europe at some point. I have always maintained that the planet will likely find a way to balance things out, as it usually does. We'll see....def out of my wheelhouse.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is interesting is the implication that the cessation of the gulf stream could cause a dramtic cooling over N America and Europe at some point. I have always maintained that the planet will likely find a way to balance things out, as it usually does. We'll see....def out of my wheelhouse.

 

[rclab]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is interesting is the implication that the cessation of the gulf stream could cause a dramtic cooling over N America and Europe at some point. I have always maintained that the planet will likely find a way to balance things out, as it usually does. We'll see....def out of my wheelhouse.

Agree …. The outcome of the triage will not be pleasant. Stay well, as always …..

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, rclab said:

Agree …. The outcome of the triage will not be pleasant. Stay well, as always …..

Yea, the path to said balance may not necessarily be hospitable for society.

[TheClimateChanger]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is interesting is the implication that the cessation of the gulf stream could cause a dramtic cooling over N America and Europe at some point. I have always maintained that the planet will likely find a way to balance things out, as it usually does. We'll see....def out of my wheelhouse.

There is no magical thermostat on earth. It will continue warming regardless of what the AMOC does, probably even speed up. Parts of Europe might see a modest cooling. No ice age. No little ice age. That's a bunch of nonsense. Sorry to rain on everyone's fantasies.

The Gulf Stream Myth (columbia.edu)

The Source of Europe's Mild Climate | American Scientist

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

There is no magical thermostat on earth. It will continue warming regardless of what the AMOC does, probably even speed up. Parts of Europe might see a modest cooling. No ice age. No little ice age. That's a bunch of nonsense.

The Gulf Stream Myth (columbia.edu)

The Source of Europe's Mild Climate | American Scientist

I didn't see any mention of the term "ice age, except from you.

I was simply inferring from the article that the cessation of the Gulf Stream could act to quell the uber-rapid "hockey stick" rate of warming that he have observed recently....but I'm sure that would have some drastic implications.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't see any mention of the term "ice age, except from you.

I was simply inferring from the article that the cessation of the Gulf Stream could act to quell the uber-rapid "hockey stick" rate of warming that he have observed recently....but I'm sure that would have some drastic implications.

The CNN article implies sea ice to the southern coast of England. That's a load of rubbish.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The CNN article implies sea ice to the southern coast of England. That's a load of rubbish.

I can assure you there will NEVER be sea ice off the south coast of England so long as humankind reigns.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The CNN article implies sea ice to the southern coast of England. That's a load of rubbish.

Yea, I agree that sounds ludicrous, but I do think that it could slow the rate of warming....again, that is all I took from this.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, an AMOC 'break down' ( or redistribution/morphology plausibility ) is less a cold "offset" factorization for the eastern American continent/Maritime of Canada, unfortunately.

It's more so for NW Europe.

We're still constrained by actual Meteorology of the atmosphere, which by geophysical constraint will always be a W --> E orienting corrections.  This is part in parcel ( as an aside ...) to why the over-promotion of the NAO's influence, that precipitated out of the 1990's boon time for index identities ...,  ( which still to this day lives on), hasn't been very well supported.

The NAO is really an indirect result of wave wave frequency relaying downstream the Pacific ... Perhaps more accurate just to say, 'whatever is west of its domain'. 

It's the non-linear residue down stream of the PNA ( to some degree related to the EPO ) - these latter are the real primary loaders for pattern forcing --> precipitation and temperature anomaly distributions across North America.  If they are in a particular mode, than a (+) (-) NAO will emerge with some time lag application.  This gives the illusion ( perhaps ..) that a given mode of the NAO was driving those biases, particularly over the eastern continental mid latitudes, ... but the NAO was/is actually a parallel result.  It has its usefulness as a 'shaky' signal, but it is not a driver - the drive was/is always upstream.  In fact, the NAO is far more objectively observed to occur post storm/amplitude changes between Chicago and Washington D.C..

Also, the 'hockey stick' euphemism for describing the recent curve of CC is a global distinction.  Obviousness incoming here:  pure numerical weighting the entire planetary average would absorb.   Conceptually, there is no integrated way the N. Atlantic/AMOC dictates the longer term planetary state.  It's a transient consequence over the course of a wholesale destination; it has impact over a much smaller geographical area relative to the whole.   

 

 

[bluewave]

At least some good news with this most recent study.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

At least some good news with this most recent study.

 

 

I hope this new study is accurate, but I want to see more given that it seems to be somewhat of an outlier among the recent literature. So far, Dr. Stefan Ramstorf, who has studied AMOC extensively, has not yet commented. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I hope this new study is accurate, but I want to see more given that it seems to be somewhat of an outlier among the recent literature. So far, Dr. Stefan Ramstorf, who has studied AMOC extensively, has not yet commented. 

It’s tough to tell if the observed SST cooling near Iceland and Greenland is a result of the slowing AMOC, stronger winds, or a blend of the two.

https://pure.psu.edu/en/publications/century-long-cooling-trend-in-subpolar-north-atlantic-forced-by-a

Abstract

A well-known exception to rising sea surface temperatures (SST) across the globe is the subpolar North Atlantic, where SST has been declining at a rate of 0.39 (± 0.23) K century⁻¹ during the 1900–2017 period. This cold blob has been hypothesized to result from a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, observation-based evidence is used to suggest that local atmospheric forcing can also contribute to the century-long cooling trend. Specifically, a 100-year SST trend simulated by an idealized ocean model forced by historical atmospheric forcing over the cold blob region matches 92% (± 77%) of the observed cooling trend. The data-driven simulations suggest that 54% (± 77%) of the observed cooling trend is the direct result of increased heat loss from the ocean induced by the overlying atmosphere, while the remaining 38% is due to strengthened local convection. An analysis of surface wind eddy kinetic energy suggests that the atmosphere-induced cooling may be linked to a northward migration of the jet stream, which exposes the subpolar North Atlantic to intensified storminess.