Gulf Stream to Shut Down this Century

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing

[jbenedet]

This is a good read. A few years old but without hyperbole. Also less “predictive”; much more of what is already occurring and why…

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00143-5

My feelings are far Western Europe (Spain, Ireland, Portugal, parts of northern/western France) and Great Britain are asymmetrically exposed to a colder climate while the eastern CONUS is asymmetrically exposed to much warmer outcomes as a result of this.

The arctic Labrador current is seeing similar effects, at an even faster rate. And if the Gulf Stream were to significantly slow —what does that mean for heat transport? We then have warmer SST’s pooling in the western Atlantic, potentially up to the mid Atlantic region…Not really a prediction at this point. Seems that it’s already subtly happening…As I type this, seeing multiple buoys reporting SST’s in upper 60’s from NE MA to just south of Portland Maine. And we have another month before peaking…

Fastest rate of warming in the region where the Labrador current ends its journey…fastest rate of cooling where the Gulf Stream ends its trek…

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

This is a good read. A few years old but without hyperbole. Also less “predictive”; much more of what is already occurring and why…

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00143-5

My feelings are far Western Europe (Spain, Ireland, Portugal, parts of northern/western France) and Great Britain are asymmetrically exposed to a colder climate while the eastern CONUS is asymmetrically exposed to much warmer outcomes as a result of this.

The arctic Labrador current is seeing similar effects, at an even faster rate. And if the Gulf Stream were to significantly slow —what does that mean for heat transport? We then have warmer SST’s pooling in the western Atlantic, potentially up to the mid Atlantic region…Not really a prediction at this point. Seems that it’s already subtly happening…As I type this, seeing multiple buoys reporting SST’s in upper 60’s from NE MA to just south of Portland Maine. And we have another month before peaking…

Fastest rate of warming in the region where the Labrador current ends its journey…fastest rate of cooling where the Gulf Stream ends its trek…

 

The common denominator is that the NW Atlantic warm pool and attendant 500 mb height and temperature records are much more impressive than the colder records from south of Greenland to Northern Europe. 
 

 

 

tps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01159-7.epdf?sharing_token=_FVaOVyABkcD2Hudkuy4HdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0O_gxR6rgaJtPXjMaI-B_Efht4SyFms8mqqnoqmB-1adVBLGM5Ox8NTZgYnk58C8f_MqmRXlgMUKAvhPoz3ntaVpIMcZZ9PrSyXcXowWePIeqVtKWaAjhHN6qpaUvjsKJPMu2-ItgHqBkpP-ekBm2TbTkyKT4Ld921Svm7C1wJQmod5-Am_0W6rnLf3GjdTJ9U%3D&tracking_referrer=www.theguardian.com

Abstract

The northeastern United States (NEUS) and the adjacent Northwest Atlantic Shelf (NWS) have emerged as warming hotspots, but the connection between them remains unexplored. Here we use gridded observational and reanalysis datasets to show that the twentieth-century surface air temperature increase along the coastal NEUS is exceptional on the continental and hemispheric scale and is induced by a combination of two factors: the sea surface temperature (SST) increase in the NWS associated with a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and atmospheric circulation changes associated with a more persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation. These connections are important because AMOC slowdown and NWS warming are projected to continue. A survey of climate model simulations indicates that realistic SST representation at high spatial resolution might be a minimum requirement to capture the observed pattern of coastal warming, suggesting that prior projection-based assessments may not have captured key features in this populous region.

 

 

[jbenedet]

@bluewave

Yes I am in agreement with that. 

[jbenedet]

The Gulf of Maine may also be seeing more warming due to higher volumes of water via river/stream watersheds as warming climate inducing higher precipitable water in New England region. Not only is this water fresh, but it’s also a lot warmer than the Gulf of Maine. This could also be compounding the fresh water effects of melting sea ice noted above….

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/2/2024 at 10:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing

What is interesting is the implication that the cessation of the gulf stream could cause a dramtic cooling over N America and Europe at some point. I have always maintained that the planet will likely find a way to balance things out, as it usually does. We'll see....def out of my wheelhouse.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is interesting is the implication that the cessation of the gulf stream could cause a dramtic cooling over N America and Europe at some point. I have always maintained that the planet will likely find a way to balance things out, as it usually does. We'll see....def out of my wheelhouse.

 

[rclab]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is interesting is the implication that the cessation of the gulf stream could cause a dramtic cooling over N America and Europe at some point. I have always maintained that the planet will likely find a way to balance things out, as it usually does. We'll see....def out of my wheelhouse.

Agree …. The outcome of the triage will not be pleasant. Stay well, as always …..

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, rclab said:

Agree …. The outcome of the triage will not be pleasant. Stay well, as always …..

Yea, the path to said balance may not necessarily be hospitable for society.

[TheClimateChanger]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is interesting is the implication that the cessation of the gulf stream could cause a dramtic cooling over N America and Europe at some point. I have always maintained that the planet will likely find a way to balance things out, as it usually does. We'll see....def out of my wheelhouse.

There is no magical thermostat on earth. It will continue warming regardless of what the AMOC does, probably even speed up. Parts of Europe might see a modest cooling. No ice age. No little ice age. That's a bunch of nonsense. Sorry to rain on everyone's fantasies.

The Gulf Stream Myth (columbia.edu)

The Source of Europe's Mild Climate | American Scientist

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

There is no magical thermostat on earth. It will continue warming regardless of what the AMOC does, probably even speed up. Parts of Europe might see a modest cooling. No ice age. No little ice age. That's a bunch of nonsense.

The Gulf Stream Myth (columbia.edu)

The Source of Europe's Mild Climate | American Scientist

I didn't see any mention of the term "ice age, except from you.

I was simply inferring from the article that the cessation of the Gulf Stream could act to quell the uber-rapid "hockey stick" rate of warming that he have observed recently....but I'm sure that would have some drastic implications.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't see any mention of the term "ice age, except from you.

I was simply inferring from the article that the cessation of the Gulf Stream could act to quell the uber-rapid "hockey stick" rate of warming that he have observed recently....but I'm sure that would have some drastic implications.

The CNN article implies sea ice to the southern coast of England. That's a load of rubbish.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The CNN article implies sea ice to the southern coast of England. That's a load of rubbish.

I can assure you there will NEVER be sea ice off the south coast of England so long as humankind reigns.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The CNN article implies sea ice to the southern coast of England. That's a load of rubbish.

Yea, I agree that sounds ludicrous, but I do think that it could slow the rate of warming....again, that is all I took from this.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, an AMOC 'break down' ( or redistribution/morphology plausibility ) is less a cold "offset" factorization for the eastern American continent/Maritime of Canada, unfortunately.

It's more so for NW Europe.

We're still constrained by actual Meteorology of the atmosphere, which by geophysical constraint will always be a W --> E orienting corrections.  This is part in parcel ( as an aside ...) to why the over-promotion of the NAO's influence, that precipitated out of the 1990's boon time for index identities ...,  ( which still to this day lives on), hasn't been very well supported.

The NAO is really an indirect result of wave decay frequencies relaying downstream the Pacific ... Perhaps more accurate just to say, 'whatever is west of its domain'. 

It's the non-linear residue down stream of the PNA ( to some degree related to the EPO ) - these latter are the real primary loaders for pattern forcing --> precipitation and temperature anomaly distributions across North America.  If they are in a particular mode, than a (+) (-) NAO will emerge with some time lag application.  This gives the illusion ( perhaps ..) that a given mode of the NAO was driving those biases, particularly over the eastern continental mid latitudes, ... but the NAO was/is actually a parallel result.  It has its usefulness as a 'shaky' signal, but it is not a driver - the drive was/is always upstream.  In fact, the NAO is far more objectively observed to occur post storm/amplitude changes between Chicago and Washington D.C..

Also, the 'hockey stick' euphemism for describing the recent curve of CC is a global distinction.  Obviousness incoming here:  pure numerical weighting the entire planetary average would absorb.   Conceptually, there is no integrated way the N. Atlantic/AMOC dictates the longer term planetary state.  It's a transient consequence over the course of a wholesale destination; it has impact over a much smaller geographical area relative to the whole.   

 

 

[bluewave]

At least some good news with this most recent study.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

At least some good news with this most recent study.

 

 

I hope this new study is accurate, but I want to see more given that it seems to be somewhat of an outlier among the recent literature. So far, Dr. Stefan Ramstorf, who has studied AMOC extensively, has not yet commented. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I hope this new study is accurate, but I want to see more given that it seems to be somewhat of an outlier among the recent literature. So far, Dr. Stefan Ramstorf, who has studied AMOC extensively, has not yet commented. 

It’s tough to tell if the observed SST cooling near Iceland and Greenland is a result of the slowing AMOC, stronger winds, or a blend of the two.

https://pure.psu.edu/en/publications/century-long-cooling-trend-in-subpolar-north-atlantic-forced-by-a

Abstract

A well-known exception to rising sea surface temperatures (SST) across the globe is the subpolar North Atlantic, where SST has been declining at a rate of 0.39 (± 0.23) K century⁻¹ during the 1900–2017 period. This cold blob has been hypothesized to result from a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, observation-based evidence is used to suggest that local atmospheric forcing can also contribute to the century-long cooling trend. Specifically, a 100-year SST trend simulated by an idealized ocean model forced by historical atmospheric forcing over the cold blob region matches 92% (± 77%) of the observed cooling trend. The data-driven simulations suggest that 54% (± 77%) of the observed cooling trend is the direct result of increased heat loss from the ocean induced by the overlying atmosphere, while the remaining 38% is due to strengthened local convection. An analysis of surface wind eddy kinetic energy suggests that the atmosphere-induced cooling may be linked to a northward migration of the jet stream, which exposes the subpolar North Atlantic to intensified storminess.

 

 

[jbenedet]

On 9/7/2024 at 3:26 PM, bluewave said:

At least some good news with this most recent study.

 

 

Why would we take measurements here—in the sub tropics???

I think what they found is what we should have expected; but it doesn’t explain anything. The theory is the current/circulation is slowing (with time) from north to south, NOT south to north….

A similar study should have been performed much further north/east, closer to the Azores—upstream of the cold pool. 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Why would we take measurements here—in the sub tropics???

I think what they found is what we should have expected; but it doesn’t explain anything. The theory is the current/circulation is slowing (with time) from north to south, NOT south to north….

A similar study should have been performed much further north/east, closer to the Azores—upstream of the cold pool. 

It’s a key component of the AMOC as outlined in the recent paper.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/reassessing-the-stability-of-the-florida-current-new-insights-from-40-years-of-observations/

However, the strength of the Florida Current, a key component of the AMOC, has remained stable for the past four decades, according to a new study by scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) and Rosenstiel School, and the National Oceanography Centre (UK). 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 11/3/2024 at 5:38 PM, bluewave said:

It’s a key component of the AMOC as outlined in the recent paper.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/reassessing-the-stability-of-the-florida-current-new-insights-from-40-years-of-observations/

However, the strength of the Florida Current, a key component of the AMOC, has remained stable for the past four decades, according to a new study by scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) and Rosenstiel School, and the National Oceanography Centre (UK). 

It’s all about threshold…
I’m pretty sure most papers say “nearing“ tipping points as their warning for the nearby future and they’re still giving it some decades…

[chubbs]

One thing I've noticed recently, the cool SST area south of Iceland and west of Great Britian/Ireland, associated with a potential slowdown in the overturning circulation has warmed; and, a new cool SST area has developed to the SW east of the US. We'll have to see if the change persists long enough to be relevant to the ocean circulation discussion.

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, chubbs said:

One thing I've noticed recently, the cool SST area south of Iceland and west of Great Britian/Ireland, associated with a potential slowdown in the overturning circulation has warmed; and, a new cool SST area has developed to the SW east of the US. We'll have to see if the change persists long enough to be relevant to the ocean circulation discussion.

One of the sources for uncertainty is that several recent studies have found that the cool blob in the North Atlantic is associated with lower pressures and stronger winds rather than changes in the AMOC.

 

In addition, it has recently been shown that the observed reduction in sea surface temperatures in the subpolar North Atlantic (also known as the warming hole), often assumed to be an indication of the AMOC slowdown, could largely be driven by the atmosphere alone without any changes in ocean circulation²

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

One of the sources for uncertainty is that several recent studies have found that the cool blob in the North Atlantic is associated with lower pressures and stronger winds rather than changes in the AMOC.

 

In addition, it has recently been shown that the observed reduction in sea surface temperatures in the subpolar North Atlantic (also known as the warming hole), often assumed to be an indication of the AMOC slowdown, could largely be driven by the atmosphere alone without any changes in ocean circulation²

 

it's interesting.   i've given that question some thought in the past ... 'how can the difference between that and just ss stressing... etc'   i mean obviously,  fractal forcing would register change in sfc water, much, much faster. but, that would likely 'self correct' once and when the former fractal behavior dispersed. then, how much stressing has to happen before masking begins?  ...  how long after it ends does the correction take... ?  goes on 

just as an intuitive sort of approach ... it would be a neat idea to test the basal oceanic thermal state, establishing what that is...   once known, if removing the coupled ocean-atmospheric forcing, does the year 2020+ ocean settle back to a basal state that is warmer, or colder, than the 1990.   that delta there might help in determining if there are concurrent physics in play ( which i personally believe there are, anyway ) that really create reality.  perhaps of more importance... how much of each.

i could see the amoc approaching a disaster scenario, but that approach is being masked by a vastly more readily observable fractal stressing patterns - literally as in, fractals giving the illusion of a structure but are by nature actually ephemeral.  so ... it's all neatly explained and amoc isn't that big-o deal.  yay!  a circumstance that is super-naturally designed to hide the former, too. muah hahahaha LOL ... 

fits my sci-fi idea about a kind of 'gaia' back ground consciousness, one that is an emergent property of the entire planetary infinitum of multi-variate interacting processes ... giving rise to the synergistic phenomenon.  emergence by interacting systems, via a complexity that is only in existence while interaction is occurring, seldom do that, right?   like how a 100 billion nerve cells, creating trillions of dendritic connections formulate the ability to write these sentences ( however incomprehensible they are, aside  haha) ...  why can't the earth know it has cancer, class?  

well, you know  ... human technology has devised a way - if perhaps ultimately proven primitive in the long run ... - to eradicate cancer cells:  radiation therapy. 

hmm warming world is thermal radiation.   see where this is kind of going in a "fun" imaginative way?    i also like to refer to this as the 'toad in the pan' cleaning operation.  

the funny thing is, whether that fantasy notion of the gaia awareness is an agenda of an agency or not, slowly turning the oven dial all the way up to the clean end, at such a slow rate to allow human imagination to affectingly explain wy it's not happening ... still works!  in the end, we've been scoured out.  cancer cured. 

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2024-11-meltwater-greenland-arctic-weakening-ocean.html

i find this fascinating, "...and about 20% weaker since the middle of the 20th century..." 

that's really an astonishingly fast rate in geologic terms. 

you know, with all these gitty-up observations, surpassing original conjecture, hypothesis, theory and model projections, ... it gets more suspicious to me that the main proponent in setting the time range for these changes as far out as they ever were, was really just the shear specter of a planet changing - it was/is just too big to get heads wrapped around it. thus, giving more time becomes something like a comfort instinct.  ...just psychology getting in the way of sounder reasoning, perhaps -

[A-L-E-K]

astute observation my guy

[jbenedet]

19 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

https://phys.org/news/2024-11-meltwater-greenland-arctic-weakening-ocean.html

i find this fascinating, "...and about 20% weaker since the middle of the 20th century..." 

that's really an astonishingly fast rate in geologic terms. 

you know, with all these gitty-up observations, surpassing original conjecture, hypothesis, theory and model projections, ... it gets more suspicious to me that the main proponent in setting the time range for these changes as far out as they ever were, was really just the shear specter of a planet changing - it was/is just too big to get heads wrapped around it. thus, giving more time becomes something like a comfort instinct.  ...just psychology getting in the way of sounder reasoning, perhaps -

I've been tracking this mostly in our backyard for how the Labrador current is responding. 

Does anyone have good historical data for SST's around NS, Cape Breton island and Downeast Maine? I'm still seeing SST's  49-50F in this area, which seems exceedingly warm...

What's most odd to me is you don't see any clear temperature footprint of the labrador current as SST's much further south off the coast of NH and MA are in the low 50's...Usually you see a steep drop off in SST's around mid coast ME...

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I've been tracking this mostly in our backyard for how the Labrador current is responding. 

Does anyone have good historical data for SST's around NS, Cape Breton island and Downeast Maine? I'm still seeing SST's  49-50F in this area, which seems exceedingly warm...

What's most odd to me is you don't see any clear temperature footprint of the labrador current as SST's much further south off the coast of NH and MA are in the low 50's...Usually you see a steep drop off in SST's around mid coast ME...

GMRI tracks this part of the Atlantic which has consistently been near the warmest on record in recent years.

 

https://gmri.org/stories/gulf-of-maine-warming-update-summer-2024/

[jbenedet]

@bluewave You really don't see the regional off-shoots (Western/Eastern Maine coastal current) of the labrador current in the current SST profile. It seems like there's the Nova Scotia current, but relatively warm, and mostly confined to Cape Breton Island area....Not seeing it extend much into the GOM at all...

 

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

@bluewave You really don't see the regional off-shoots (Western/Eastern Maine coastal current) of the labrador current in the current SST profile. It seems like there's the Nova Scotia current, but relatively warm, and mostly confined to Cape Breton Island area....Not seeing it extend much into the GOM at all...

 

 

The Gulf of Maine is near the warmest on record for this time of year.

 

https://mco.umaine.edu/climate/gom_sst/