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Hurricane Debby


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19 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Waking up to sunny down here in Orlando.  I’m not expecting too many impacts here?  Don’t let your guard down up the coast with what probably will become Debby.  What’s interesting too is I check into Charleston SC on August 11th.  I guess I’ll be checking into the aftermath. We drove down from SE Pa hope the roads are passable in Georgia, SC, NC as I look at the models this morning. 

My forecast has me getting 15" in the next seven days.  Less impact toward I-95 but that road has been shut down for flooding before so keep an eye on road conditions.  Not much in the way of heavy wind expected but with all that rain, trees will fall with marginal wind.

 

It seems like no matter the angle of approach, the models invariably end up around Brunswick, GA for exit to the Atlantic.  From there it's a question as to whether it hugs the coast going slowly north with primarily rain, or whether it stays 50-75 miles offshore and becomes a larger wind impact for NC.

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21 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Waking up to sunny down here in Orlando.  I’m not expecting too many impacts here?  Don’t let your guard down up the coast with what probably will become Debby.  What’s interesting too is I check into Charleston SC on August 11th.  I guess I’ll be checking into the aftermath. We drove down from SE Pa hope the roads are passable in Georgia, SC, NC as I look at the models this morning. 

As currently forecasted, just squally weather in Orlando at times. Our biggest impacts are typically when they enter near SWFL. Watch for trends. 

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23 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

wondering what are the chances this never gets into the Atlantic at all and stays inland GA/SC.

The UKMET and CMC show that solution, but the Euro and GFS are fairly close to each other exit near Brunswick, GA and slowly rides north along the east coast.

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The 06z GFS has a weenie solution.  Exits GA coast around Brunswick and rides slowly up the coast to SAV, then pushes 50-60 miles out to sea, only to head back to Brunswick where it continues to push inland until dying around Greenville, SC in the Upstate.  Those would be epic rains for someone if it verified.  A heavy rainmaker along the GA and lower SC coasts for 90 straight hours.  LOL

There will be epic rains but not sold on the loop back slightly to the south along the coast.

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First good visible animation of our TD, soon to be TS Debby. The broad circulation appears to be over the Cuban landmass now. There is still MLC rotation to the cloud canopy south of the broader COC, but nothing appears to be forming vorticity at the surface, south of Cuba, or E of Isla de la Juventud (Island of Youth). If all continues status quo, the broad COC should move off the north coast of Cuba by this evening. We'll just have to see how quickly convection can organize and tighten the a low-level vortex. I still think the favorable upper environment will allow Debby to develop a core and intensify into a hurricane prior to landfall in the NE GOM / upper west Florida Peninsula. How quickly that process evolves obviously dictates landfall intensity. Regardless, as has been repeated, flooding up the entirety of the peninsula is going to be the biggest issue versus potential wind and surge impacts.
74f104a2de9218fc1032b9702422ea19.gifacebf2d8dc2f74888dd28d7982b58c62.gif

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Gulfport, Florida in Pinellas County: Just filled up our van with gas and swapped out an empty propane bottle for a full one. There was no line for gas and it looked like plenty of full propane bottles left. I may pick up a bag of ice for the freezer.

We don't expect much here with Debby except some always welcome rain. But with 24 hours of unknowns we want to be ready for a "Charlie" just in case.

The last Tropical Storm Debby we enjoyed in 2012 dumped 16 inches of rain on us, blew some trees down, cut power off, and made a respectable storm surge:

image.thumb.png.fbdad6803aef4cf27d6815352ae919ba.png

 

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41 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Nada on /ahsg/ either 

is everyone not well informed?

My hunch is everyone is thinking this is Idalia 2.0 but with less wind. There were zero impacts on SGI for Idalia last year which seems to be a common theme on this island with storms that curve south of us towards the Nature Coast of Florida. Personally, I would like to see a tighter clustering of models before I feel better about riding Debby out. The UK Met has me a little on edge with its track because it has performed admirably lately and is sticking to the western edge of guidance.    

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At the moment, odds are strongly in favor of significant rain threat; odds are against wind and surge threat.

The scenario of a stall near Savannah GA—advertised across all major guidance and only 90 hrs out—could make a run of mill storm in terms of intensity highly impactful and, financially, very costly. 
 

 

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Assuming this doesn’t blow up in the gulf and become a much bigger event than expected for the Big Bend, Charleston will be ground zero. The place floods during average thunderstorms and the models are honing in on a foot+.

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40 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

At the moment, odds are strongly in favor of significant rain threat; odds are against wind and surge

Here in Gulfport FL a 4ft surge on top of a 2ft tide is a problem. Shore Acres in St Petersburg will be flooded…AGAIN.

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12Z UK: similar to 0Z with LF just E of Apalachicola; then NNE move to WC GA, then ENE/E to CHS, then turns up coast NNE into E NC followed by NE through VA, NE US, SE Can: not as bad flood threat vs other models due to less slowing SE US followed by accel. with it already in NC at 120 vs near GA/SC border GFS/CMC/0Z Euro:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04L        ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N  81.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 03.08.2024    0  21.9N  81.3W     1010            27
    0000UTC 04.08.2024   12  24.2N  84.0W     1007            31
    1200UTC 04.08.2024   24  26.2N  84.7W     1005            40
    0000UTC 05.08.2024   36  27.8N  84.9W     1002            46
    1200UTC 05.08.2024   48  29.1N  85.1W     1002            45
    0000UTC 06.08.2024   60  30.3N  84.6W     1003            30
    1200UTC 06.08.2024   72  32.0N  83.9W     1003            37
    0000UTC 07.08.2024   84  32.6N  82.4W      997            38
    1200UTC 07.08.2024   96  32.6N  80.2W      996            37
    0000UTC 08.08.2024  108  33.0N  79.4W      995            40
    1200UTC 08.08.2024  120  34.6N  78.8W      996            43
    0000UTC 09.08.2024  132  35.8N  78.1W      998            36
    1200UTC 09.08.2024  144  37.7N  76.2W     1000            44
    0000UTC 10.08.2024  156  42.2N  72.2W      999            36
    1200UTC 10.08.2024  168  47.2N  66.3W      996            35

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12z GFS is very similar to 06z in that it stalls along the GA/SC coast for 120 hours of heavy rainfall before moving toward the SC Upstate and spinning down.  That would be epic flooding, even for sandy soil.  I'm seeing general 15-20 inch amounts from SAV to CHS as the firehose off the Atlantic is continuous.  It'll be interesting to see if the Euro sees something similar.

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