dan11295 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 wondering what are the chances this never gets into the Atlantic at all and stays inland GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 First visible satellite images show towers going up near the COC. land interaction only thing holding this back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 19 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Waking up to sunny down here in Orlando. I’m not expecting too many impacts here? Don’t let your guard down up the coast with what probably will become Debby. What’s interesting too is I check into Charleston SC on August 11th. I guess I’ll be checking into the aftermath. We drove down from SE Pa hope the roads are passable in Georgia, SC, NC as I look at the models this morning. My forecast has me getting 15" in the next seven days. Less impact toward I-95 but that road has been shut down for flooding before so keep an eye on road conditions. Not much in the way of heavy wind expected but with all that rain, trees will fall with marginal wind. It seems like no matter the angle of approach, the models invariably end up around Brunswick, GA for exit to the Atlantic. From there it's a question as to whether it hugs the coast going slowly north with primarily rain, or whether it stays 50-75 miles offshore and becomes a larger wind impact for NC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 21 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Waking up to sunny down here in Orlando. I’m not expecting too many impacts here? Don’t let your guard down up the coast with what probably will become Debby. What’s interesting too is I check into Charleston SC on August 11th. I guess I’ll be checking into the aftermath. We drove down from SE Pa hope the roads are passable in Georgia, SC, NC as I look at the models this morning. As currently forecasted, just squally weather in Orlando at times. Our biggest impacts are typically when they enter near SWFL. Watch for trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 23 minutes ago, dan11295 said: wondering what are the chances this never gets into the Atlantic at all and stays inland GA/SC. The UKMET and CMC show that solution, but the Euro and GFS are fairly close to each other exit near Brunswick, GA and slowly rides north along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 The 06z GFS has a weenie solution. Exits GA coast around Brunswick and rides slowly up the coast to SAV, then pushes 50-60 miles out to sea, only to head back to Brunswick where it continues to push inland until dying around Greenville, SC in the Upstate. Those would be epic rains for someone if it verified. A heavy rainmaker along the GA and lower SC coasts for 90 straight hours. LOL There will be epic rains but not sold on the loop back slightly to the south along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Even if it tracks further west over GA, I see it stalling for a time around 32-34N or off the SC coast. Lotta rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Much less likely now it will stay offshore after making landfall in FL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 5 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: I just got back from driving the golf cart around St. George Island and there are zero preps happening. I suspect everyone is waiting for tomorrow for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 15 minutes ago, Seminole said: I just got back from driving the golf cart around St. George Island and there are zero preps happening. I suspect everyone is waiting for tomorrow for that. Nada on /ahsg/ either is everyone not well informed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 First good visible animation of our TD, soon to be TS Debby. The broad circulation appears to be over the Cuban landmass now. There is still MLC rotation to the cloud canopy south of the broader COC, but nothing appears to be forming vorticity at the surface, south of Cuba, or E of Isla de la Juventud (Island of Youth). If all continues status quo, the broad COC should move off the north coast of Cuba by this evening. We'll just have to see how quickly convection can organize and tighten the a low-level vortex. I still think the favorable upper environment will allow Debby to develop a core and intensify into a hurricane prior to landfall in the NE GOM / upper west Florida Peninsula. How quickly that process evolves obviously dictates landfall intensity. Regardless, as has been repeated, flooding up the entirety of the peninsula is going to be the biggest issue versus potential wind and surge impacts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Gulfport, Florida in Pinellas County: Just filled up our van with gas and swapped out an empty propane bottle for a full one. There was no line for gas and it looked like plenty of full propane bottles left. I may pick up a bag of ice for the freezer. We don't expect much here with Debby except some always welcome rain. But with 24 hours of unknowns we want to be ready for a "Charlie" just in case. The last Tropical Storm Debby we enjoyed in 2012 dumped 16 inches of rain on us, blew some trees down, cut power off, and made a respectable storm surge: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 The visible now clearly shows low level rotation over Cuba. Should be entering the gulf in 5-6 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 41 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Nada on /ahsg/ either is everyone not well informed? My hunch is everyone is thinking this is Idalia 2.0 but with less wind. There were zero impacts on SGI for Idalia last year which seems to be a common theme on this island with storms that curve south of us towards the Nature Coast of Florida. Personally, I would like to see a tighter clustering of models before I feel better about riding Debby out. The UK Met has me a little on edge with its track because it has performed admirably lately and is sticking to the western edge of guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1819739389963944419?t=R9qqJgD6ukOwjmjdLHWVPQ&s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 While it's it is nam and usually stay away from those kind of products, it's showing fairly similar track as others. Js Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 There is a good chance it's just about over water or well be soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 At the moment, odds are strongly in favor of significant rain threat; odds are against wind and surge threat. The scenario of a stall near Savannah GA—advertised across all major guidance and only 90 hrs out—could make a run of mill storm in terms of intensity highly impactful and, financially, very costly. 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 12z icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Assuming this doesn’t blow up in the gulf and become a much bigger event than expected for the Big Bend, Charleston will be ground zero. The place floods during average thunderstorms and the models are honing in on a foot+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 GFS showing more strengthening in the Gulf this run 984 nearing the coast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1819761095441338490?t=lwkQB5n5TU5qrJkjTf_GRg&s=19 For some reason not all of the embedding is working on mobile. Thanks Electron. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 40 minutes ago, jbenedet said: At the moment, odds are strongly in favor of significant rain threat; odds are against wind and surge … Here in Gulfport FL a 4ft surge on top of a 2ft tide is a problem. Shore Acres in St Petersburg will be flooded…AGAIN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 12Z UK: similar to 0Z with LF just E of Apalachicola; then NNE move to WC GA, then ENE/E to CHS, then turns up coast NNE into E NC followed by NE through VA, NE US, SE Can: not as bad flood threat vs other models due to less slowing SE US followed by accel. with it already in NC at 120 vs near GA/SC border GFS/CMC/0Z Euro: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 81.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.08.2024 0 21.9N 81.3W 1010 27 0000UTC 04.08.2024 12 24.2N 84.0W 1007 31 1200UTC 04.08.2024 24 26.2N 84.7W 1005 40 0000UTC 05.08.2024 36 27.8N 84.9W 1002 46 1200UTC 05.08.2024 48 29.1N 85.1W 1002 45 0000UTC 06.08.2024 60 30.3N 84.6W 1003 30 1200UTC 06.08.2024 72 32.0N 83.9W 1003 37 0000UTC 07.08.2024 84 32.6N 82.4W 997 38 1200UTC 07.08.2024 96 32.6N 80.2W 996 37 0000UTC 08.08.2024 108 33.0N 79.4W 995 40 1200UTC 08.08.2024 120 34.6N 78.8W 996 43 0000UTC 09.08.2024 132 35.8N 78.1W 998 36 1200UTC 09.08.2024 144 37.7N 76.2W 1000 44 0000UTC 10.08.2024 156 42.2N 72.2W 999 36 1200UTC 10.08.2024 168 47.2N 66.3W 996 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 12z GFS is very similar to 06z in that it stalls along the GA/SC coast for 120 hours of heavy rainfall before moving toward the SC Upstate and spinning down. That would be epic flooding, even for sandy soil. I'm seeing general 15-20 inch amounts from SAV to CHS as the firehose off the Atlantic is continuous. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro sees something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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