wthrmn654 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 its over water! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 non the less very cool looking*shrug* not close enough to assist in ventilating our newly forming TC. Well, perhaps a small amount of upper-level ventilation to the east, but still pretty minute. Not worth mentioning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Spent the day in the Southern Bahamas, there were easily some 45-50kt gusts associated with rain squalls which began in the afternoon. Sea is angry and the ship has been rocking since yesterday. On our way to the Central Bahamas and Captain said it’s possible we might not be able to dock. Forecast is worse than what we experienced today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Low level center definitely consolidating south of Cuba…future model runs should be interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 79.7W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 79.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a slower motion toward the north and then the northeast on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across Cuba overnight and on Saturday, and then move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Sunday, potentially reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night and Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday. This rainfall may result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through Saturday. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Shortwave infrared satellite imagery, Cuban radar data, and surface observations from Cuba and the Cayman Islands suggest that the disturbance has developed a closed circulation, and the center is located just off the south coast of Cuba. Deep convection is still a bit fragmented, but there has been a persistent burst near the estimated center since earlier this afternoon. The wind and pressure field could still be a little elongated within the southern semicircle, but overall the system appears to have enough organization to now be designated as a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on earlier observations. The depression has not begun to turn yet, and the initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt. A turn toward the northwest and then north is expected over the weekend due to a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a trough over the eastern United States. Since the system has not started to turn yet, this has caused all of the track guidance to shift west, and the updated NHC forecast is a bit west of the previous forecast along the eastern edge of the main cluster of models. It is important to note that because of the forecast track being parallel to the west coast of Florida, the location and timing of a potential landfall cannot be pinned down at this time. One additional significant change to the forecast is that the models seem to be showing the aforementioned trough leaving the cyclone behind early next week, which causes a much slower motion while the system is near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. As a result, the new NHC forecast is notably slower than the previous forecast, particularly on days 4 and 5. The westward shift to the track forecast now also keeps the system over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico longer, giving the system additional time to potentially strengthen. In fact, the SHIPS guidance and all of the regional hurricane models show the cyclone reaching hurricane strength before reaching land in the Big Bend region of Florida in 2 to 3 days. As a result, the new NHC forecast brings the intensity to 60 kt at 60 hours as the system is reaching land, but if model trends continue, it's possible that future forecasts could explicit show the system becoming a hurricane before it reaches land. The intensity forecast is more uncertain on days 3 through 5 due depending on if the center moves back offshore or stays inland over the southeastern United States. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river flooding will also be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the Tropical Storm Warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande and on the Dry Tortugas. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the remainder of the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Boca Grande to Suwannee River Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. 4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 21.4N 79.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 22.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER CUBA 24H 04/0000Z 24.6N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 04/1200Z 26.6N 84.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 28.4N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 29.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 30.8N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/0000Z 32.8N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 If it goes south at origin, the whole cone shifts SW CHS is actually due for something. OBX catches one every year. Low country gets a get out of jail free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Wife and I supposed to be in Oak Island NC Monday thru Thursday. Glad we bought trip insurance!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 3 Author Share Posted August 3 00z GFS verbatim brings it right back into the SC coast early Thursday. Still a lot to be resolved with the steering pattern next week. Different time stamp but the GEFS are also further west early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Alot of rain up here as the storm heads north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 0Z UK: landfall just E of 12Z’s Apalachicola; then goes inland further W into C GA then turns E to CHS, goes up SC coast and then well inland into NC; flooding threat many areas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 23.5N 83.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.08.2024 24 23.5N 83.7W 1007 28 1200UTC 04.08.2024 36 25.7N 84.8W 1006 34 0000UTC 05.08.2024 48 27.4N 85.5W 1004 43 1200UTC 05.08.2024 60 28.8N 85.3W 1003 42 0000UTC 06.08.2024 72 29.9N 84.4W 1002 35 1200UTC 06.08.2024 84 31.4N 84.2W 1001 36 0000UTC 07.08.2024 96 32.5N 83.3W 997 37 1200UTC 07.08.2024 108 32.5N 81.1W 996 41 0000UTC 08.08.2024 120 32.8N 79.9W 994 43 1200UTC 08.08.2024 132 33.8N 79.5W 996 41 0000UTC 09.08.2024 144 35.3N 78.4W 998 39 1200UTC 09.08.2024 156 36.4N 78.5W 1001 38 0000UTC 10.08.2024 168 37.4N 76.6W 1002 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 0Z Euro: similar track to 12Z but stronger with it coming back into CHS at 986 mb vs 989 on 12Z; biblical rainfall amts of 20-24” mainly over ~72 hr period SAV-CHS and inland to 50 miles Lowcountry 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 19 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z Euro: similar track to 12Z but stronger with it coming back into CHS at 986 mb vs 989 on 12Z; biblical rainfall amts of 20-24” mainly over ~72 hr period SAV-CHS and inland to 50 miles Lowcountry Scrolling, near the 21.57 inch 6 day rainfall I see amounts as high as 30.83 inches. The only good thing if FFS were correct is S. South Carolina, where the heaviest 6 day totals occurs have offshore winds for much of the storm, or the flooding rivers and streams at least won't be flowing into bays with water levels elevated by onshore flow. That is a major disaster if it verifies. EDIT TO ADD: I quoted a post about the Euro w/ a GFS forecast image. It is late and I should go to bed soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 I guess I'm going to say it. The intensity forecast seems way underdone. I get the OPs, even the TC models, are keeping the circulation rather broad until the NE GOM, but there is a big caveat here. 1) This does not account for persistent convective blow-ups near the Caymans that have been tugging the COC south of Cuba, and 2) there is literally an MLC rotating S of the broader circulation right now that has ongoing convection. It is worriesome to me that, if this structure persists long enough, eventually, we're going to get a smaller surface vortex that remains over water longer. Naturally, the models will catch up after the fact. I have a hard time convincing myself that this TC is merely a tropical storm landfall in the EGOM and merely a flooding rain event, though, granted, that could be horrible enough. Too much time over water and too much of a swing out over EGOM waters prior to right hook and stall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 [img]https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMWhldzg4ZDk3Z291bnFlcGE0bnBnZ3RmaWMzYm83c205Z2tvYmk1dSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/nZhiqdZ8x1kOBWmgOP/giphy.gif[/img] OK, I still haven't figured out how to put an animated gif up here without using half my total file size attachment. I did an extended IR image loop for TT. Anyway, the center seems to be moving due W or just N of due W. I can buy the NHC's 285*. But it needs to turn NW immediately to stay in the center of the forecast cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 [img=https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMWhldzg4ZDk3Z291bnFlcGE0bnBnZ3RmaWMzYm83c205Z2tvYmk1dSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/nZhiqdZ8x1kOBWmgOP/giphy.gif] OK, I still haven't figured out how to put an animated gif up here without using half my total file size attachment. I did an extended IR image loop for TT. Anyway, the center seems to be moving due W or just N of due W. I can buy the NHC's 285*. But it needs to turn NW immediately to stay in the center of the forecast coneI'll post it for you. But realize that it's the convective burst south of the broader circulation that gives the overall appearance that the system is moving more W of WNW at the moment. Granted, if you read my post above, that is my big worry right now. Eventually, one of these CBs south of the broader surface center is going to go bonkers and form smaller surface vorticity south of the forecast track. A reformation, if you will. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 I agree with you. This could ramp up quickly into a Hurricane. Models remain too far NE with the position of the low pressure, which is also moving a little more W right now than modeled. The only negative is that western tip of Cuba has pretty high elevation. Let's see how far west it can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 It honestly looks like its about to explode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I agree with you. This could ramp up quickly into a Hurricane. Models remain too far NE with the position of the low pressure, which is also moving a little more W right now than modeled. The only negative is that western tip of Cuba has pretty high elevation. Let's see how far west it can go. But Cuba is so narrow there a quick moving storm should only spend a couple hours traversing it. Look at Ian... it went over the western part of Cuba and barely made a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Kevin Reilly Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Waking up to sunny down here in Orlando. I’m not expecting too many impacts here? Don’t let your guard down up the coast with what probably will become Debby. What’s interesting too is I check into Charleston SC on August 11th. I guess I’ll be checking into the aftermath. We drove down from SE Pa hope the roads are passable in Georgia, SC, NC as I look at the models this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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