beanskip Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 FWIW, the storm is still so unidentifiable, two of the hurricane models (HMON/HAFS) have lost the ability to model the system in their 12z runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 FWIW the UKMET stalls out inland as well. Seems to be a trend west at 12z. Still on the table that the storm won't really make it back out over water (at least for very long). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 It almost looks like a low level circulation is forming halfway between Cuba and Jamaica. That would be a pretty big shift south and likely west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 The 12Z Euro is a bit stronger (strongest of all runs into NW FL) and still has a FL Big Bend landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 At hour 141 987 mb taking a hook towards the SC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 12Z Euro, which is strongest yet into the FL Big Bend, goes offshore at Brunswick and then becomes the strongest in many runs offshore the SE US with a 988 mb H. Then it turns back W and hits CHS, SC, on THU as a 989 mb H before going well inland and weakening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 2 Author Share Posted August 2 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro, which is strongest yet into the FL Big Bend, goes offshore at Brunswick and then becomes the strongest in many runs offshore the SE US with a 988 mb H. Then it turns back W and hits CHS, SC, on THU as a 989 mb H before going well inland and weakening. I’d love to see what the EPS does. The op waffling doesn’t inspire confidence. Also, really good call day ago about this going into the eastern Gulf. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 12Z Euro says not just a H hit at CHS but also a rainfall flooding disaster quite possible SAV to Georgetown, SC, with 10”+ amounts and inland a bit especially SC Lowcountry. Keep in mind that that area has had well above normal rainfall the last 2 weeks. Hopefully this run is way off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 41 minutes ago, cptcatz said: It almost looks like a low level circulation is forming halfway between Cuba and Jamaica. That would be a pretty big shift south and likely west. Cuban radar looks like broad circulation but generally centered over the land mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 12 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro says not just a H hit at CHS but also a rainfall flooding disaster quite possible SAV to Georgetown, SC, with 10”+ amounts and inland a bit especially SC Lowcountry. Keep in mind that that area has had well above normal rainfall the last 2 weeks. Hopefully this run is way off. That seems to be the main threat with this (hvy rains)-with so much time over land masses hard to see how it becomes a strong/windy storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That seems to be the main threat with this (hvy rains)-with so much time over land masses hard to see how it becomes a strong/windy storm. I agree that the very heavy rain threat is as of now the biggest danger from this. But even if you have just TS winds, the tree uprooting would be very bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 hour ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro, which is strongest yet into the FL Big Bend, goes offshore at Brunswick and then becomes the strongest in many runs offshore the SE US with a 988 mb H. Then it turns back W and hits CHS, SC, on THU as a 989 mb H before going well inland and weakening. Maybe I'm looking at wrong Euro, but the 12z run I see is 1007 mb at landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 The gefs followed the op fairly well with heavy rain from Florida all the way to coastal main. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Anyone notice that 2nd storm chugging is way into the gulf on the gfs for next weekend? Where the heck did that come from 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 At 18z center is prog to be nearly over water south ish of I think that's Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 29 minutes ago, beanskip said: Maybe I'm looking at wrong Euro, but the 12z run I see is 1007 mb at landfall? No, I see 989 at CHS. I don’t know what you’re looking at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 minute ago, GaWx said: No, I see 989 at CHS. I don’t know what you’re looking at. Sorry, I'm talking Florida landfall. You said "strongest yet into the Big Bend" -- was trying to reconcile that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Recons up behind the storm.. mission: "survey" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Just looking at 90 frames satellite view, it's starting to get that counter clockwise spin going and last few frames is deft got some explosion going on near it's estimated center which maybe getting over water now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 29 minutes ago, beanskip said: Sorry, I'm talking Florida landfall. You said "strongest yet into the Big Bend" -- was trying to reconcile that. Ok. Yes, you’re correct. 1007 mb into Big Bend. Strongest yet into Big Bend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 If the center is indeed over water at this point, guidance is going to be playing catch up majorly. The blowup of convection to the east of the Caymans is worrisome. It’s been consistent for hours and it makes me wonder if a new llc may end up becoming dominant in that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 If the center is indeed over water at this point, guidance is going to be playing catch up majorly. The blowup of convection to the east of the Caymans is worrisome. It’s been consistent for hours and it makes me wonder if a new llc may end up becoming dominant in that location. Hard not to notice. Wouldn't hurt to have a flight investigate south of the Cuban landmass. The idea here is that the overall circulation remains broad, which is mostly over Cuba. If a specific location persists with deep convection long enough, the localized surface convergence under it might at least form a new mid level circulation. If such remains convective, a new low-level vortex could eventually spawn as well. Just have to keep an eye on that feature as that would open the door for a much higher ceiling for intensification prior to land interaction with NW Cuba. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Yea I was going to say, the consolidation looks to be happening just east of grand cayman. Would a stronger storm initially be influenced to hook more hard right in this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 15 minutes ago, Normandy said: Yea I was going to say, the consolidation looks to be happening just east of grand cayman. Would a stronger storm initially be influenced to hook more hard right in this setup? I’m wondering the same thing, but equally, does it feel the weakness to the north as soon if it’s much further south? It seems like if it can consolidate there, we’d be more likely to see more wnw movement and less interaction with Cuba - likely only the low elevation western tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Really hard to tell where the big kahoons will end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Really hard to tell where the big kahoons will end up. You can make out a twist in the blob east of the Caymans now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 At 18z it was on land but not far from water.. if I had to guess where the centralcenter was right now it would be right here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now