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A lot of the vorticity seems south of Cuba this morning.  Not sure it affects track too much but it may have more time over water if it consolidates south of Cuba while moving WNW

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6 minutes ago, Normandy said:

A lot of the vorticity seems south of Cuba this morning.  Not sure it affects track too much but it may have more time over water if it consolidates south of Cuba while moving WNW

South of Cuba was the 12z  track yesterday from the Euro.  Went further into the gulf but still ended up hitting the Big Bend area and stalling off SAV.

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast
of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys south
of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern
coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card
Sound bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north
of Bonita Beach to Aripeka.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to
Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape
Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to
Aripeka

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be
required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near 
latitude 20.9 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward the 
northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, 
followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday.  On the forecast 
track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross 
the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the 
west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. 
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on 
Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by 
intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area 
late Saturday and Saturday night.  Tropical storm conditions are 
possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern 
Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm 
conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west 
coast Saturday night or Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aripeka, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL...1-3 ft
Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to
12 inches, across portions of Florida and near the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall could
result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river
flooding possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the 
tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring for the last several days 
is now over southeastern Cuba, with disorganized convective bands to 
the north and south of a broad vorticity center.  The maximum winds 
are currently near 25 kt, and the minimum pressure based on surface 
observations is near 1012 mb.  Given the potential for development 
once the system moves over water on Saturday, advisories are 
initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.

The initial motion is 290/14 kt.  A turn toward the northwest and 
north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves 
into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude 
trough over the Ohio Valley.  This should be followed by recurvature 
into the westerlies after about 60 h.  On the forecast track, the 
system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near 
the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday.  After that 
time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and 
move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of 
the United States.  The track guidance is in good agreement with 
this scenario. However, since the forecast track is almost parallel 
to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the southeast coast 
of the U. S., only a small change in the track could lead to large 
changes in which land areas receive any landfalls and the biggest 
impacts.

Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the 
system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it 
moves offshore. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite
favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm 
sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is 
expected.  The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast 
are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how 
long it will take to consolidate.  The system is likely to weaken 
as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the 
Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across 
portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday 
morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the 
warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita 
Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm 
conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along 
the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday 
night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 

3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of
Florida over the weekend.

4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 20.9N  76.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  03/0000Z 21.7N  78.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/1200Z 23.3N  80.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  04/0000Z 25.1N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 27.2N  83.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 29.2N  82.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 72H  05/1200Z 30.7N  81.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 96H  06/1200Z 32.0N  80.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  07/1200Z 33.6N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Finally had a mintue to look at some of the stuff,  I will say looking at trends the gfs and euro  both have trended closer to the north east past few runs.. still long way aways with lots possibly to change but a compromise between the slightly inland euro and the near the bench mark gfs ops runs seems plausible. 

 

Edit: in regards to us northerners 

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150047_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 

The track record of the NHC having the Tampa Bay Area in the center of an early season cone is like clockwork and is batting like 0.000001% in the last 100 years, not saying this won’t be the one but if I were a betting man I’d be looking to the north or south ends of the cone.


.
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5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

ICON is a weenie run for a serious storm just pounding the SE NC coast for days

Hoping that's incorrect. It seems overzealous with that much deepening that close to land but it would be a long 2 days for me if it verified 

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Well 12z gfs kinda got rid of all meandering.. goes across Florida,  moves slowly on Atlantic side, looks like it touches no one really, other then Florida,  but now has its sites on a long Island hit now.  

 

EDIT: VERY CLOSE BY NO DIRECT HIT STARTS GOING NORTH EAST NEXT FRAME OR 2.

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It's coming down to timing... if it is meandering and moving really slow, allows the front to grab it before coming to the north east areas... if it moves a little faster and beats the front, looks like it has a better chance of staying closer to coast from Virginia north. 

 

EDIT: I meant north Carolina not Virginia..I need to refresh my memory on states again apparently..

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Hard to believe this disturbance is still chugging along as it’s been raked over the entire greater Antilles. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if nothing developed at all. That being said, conditions are good enough that one has to pay attention.

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12Z UKMET: first landfall Apalachicola; then would be potential disaster rainfall potential-wise, especially for SC/NC coasts due to a crawl up the coast CHS N and then back inland into coastal NC: this is to the left of the 0Z run, which was offshore

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 24.8N 84.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2024 48 25.5N 84.6W 1006 35
0000UTC 05.08.2024 60 27.4N 85.0W 1005 41
1200UTC 05.08.2024 72 29.2N 84.8W 1005 42
0000UTC 06.08.2024 84 30.3N 83.6W 1005 30
1200UTC 06.08.2024 96 31.7N 82.0W 1003 43
0000UTC 07.08.2024 108 32.4N 80.9W 999 37
1200UTC 07.08.2024 120 32.6N 80.0W 995 35
0000UTC 08.08.2024 132 33.1N 79.0W 993 41
1200UTC 08.08.2024 144 33.9N 78.4W 993 44
0000UTC 09.08.2024 156 34.1N 78.3W 994 45
1200UTC 09.08.2024 168 35.1N 78.3W 996 38

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1 hour ago, dbullsfan said:


The track record of the NHC having the Tampa Bay Area in the center of an early season cone is like clockwork and is batting like 0.000001% in the last 100 years, not saying this won’t be the one but if I were a betting man I’d be looking to the north or south ends of the cone.


.

Could be a sneaky surprise for those of us near the bays in Hillsborough and Pinellas.  A strengthening TS on that trajectory can bring a lot of flooding and impact to the usual areas.

My guess is the center curves inland under the bay and we miss the worst.

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8 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Could be a sneaky surprise for those of us near the bays in Hillsborough and Pinellas.  A strengthening TS on that trajectory can bring a lot of flooding and impact to the usual areas.

My guess is the center curves inland under the bay and we miss the worst.

100% agree.  While this may not pack the wind punch of a cane on a direct path to Tampa, depending on the arrival time and tides, it has the potential for catastrophic flooding across much of the Bay Area.  Luckily the sand bag distribution centers have shifted into gear up and down the region.  

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17 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Could be a sneaky surprise for those of us near the bays in Hillsborough and Pinellas.  A strengthening TS on that trajectory can bring a lot of flooding and impact to the usual areas.

My guess is the center curves inland under the bay and we miss the worst.

I hate to be that guy, but since you seem to be from the area I'd like your advice.  We have a beach house rental in Indian Rocks Beach starting tomorrow.  We're batting around the idea of delaying our trip until Monday or Tuesday.  Not being from the area, I'm not sure how much flooding can occur from this kind of system.  The house is beachfront.

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28 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Hard to believe this disturbance is still chugging along as it’s been raked over the entire greater Antilles. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if nothing developed at all. That being said, conditions are good enough that one has to pay attention.

Not even much of what you could call a circulation yet. So no reason to believe that land interaction is an inhibiting factor other reducing the chances of development somewhat in the short term.

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I know the Canadian is not to be used for tropical systems, but it does pull the system really far west. Could be an indicator of the overall steering pattern needing an adjustment West perhaps...but I know it may as well be tossed entirely 

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I know the Canadian is not to be used for tropical systems, but it does pull the system really far west. Could be an indicator of the overall steering pattern needing an adjustment West perhaps...but I know it may as well be tossed entirely 

It may not be fully relevant, but fwiw the CMC was too far left for the longest before finally changing from a MX final landfall for Beryl.

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11 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I hate to be that guy, but since you seem to be from the area I'd like your advice.  We have a beach house rental in Indian Rocks Beach starting tomorrow.  We're batting around the idea of delaying our trip until Monday or Tuesday.  Not being from the area, I'm not sure how much flooding can occur from this kind of system.  The house is beachfront.

Too much track and intensity uncertainty to give advice with confidence. 

Wouldn't want to be there, especially with family or little ones, if the track holds and the systems taps into toasty water temps more than modeled.  Some degree of surge or flooding is likely even with a low-end TS on that heading.

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1 minute ago, TPAwx said:

Too much track and intensity uncertainty to give advice with confidence. 

Wouldn't want to be there, especially with family or little ones, if the track holds and the systems taps into toasty water temps more than modeled.  Some degree of surge or flooding is likely even with a low-end TS on that heading.

I get it.  Probably better safe than sorry.

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22 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I hate to be that guy, but since you seem to be from the area I'd like your advice.  We have a beach house rental in Indian Rocks Beach starting tomorrow.  We're batting around the idea of delaying our trip until Monday or Tuesday.  Not being from the area, I'm not sure how much flooding can occur from this kind of system.  The house is beachfront.

We stayed beachfront (Bungalow Beach Place) in Indian Shores in 2021 during Hurricane Elsa. There was no flooding and it was a non event. This looks to be of similar intensity and track in the GOM. I would not be afraid to ride it out as long as the projected intensity stays the same. 

 

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