chrisNJ Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 58 minutes ago, FPizz said: I'll be down there too. Just got to MYR until next Friday. Now IM worried about a washout next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 eps is east of 12z. also theres 2 camps... large cluster going up the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 eps is east of 12z. also theres 2 camps... large cluster going up the coast..Happy hour gfs coming in at sarasota so that is a healthy shift se, ensembles havent been very consistent either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Happy hour GFS would nuke this board for days with the Gulf Stream stall then hesitant crawl towards NC 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Convection is blowing up to the southwest of Hispaniola but it still looks like there's at least a mid level spin to the north circled here. I think this is more of a nowcasting event until a real center forms because until then the models seem to have no idea what's going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Happy hour GFS would nuke this board for days with the Gulf Stream stall then hesitant crawl towards NC Yeah that solution is a little suspect. My wag would think the trough would take it OTS parallel with HAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 I'm all over the Euro ensemble perturbation that brings a hurricane across the Cape Cod Canal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Happy hour GFS would nuke this board for days with the Gulf Stream stall then hesitant crawl towards NC Reminiscent of Florence with the crawl inland crushing Wilmington (although it seems most model outputs are pretty low impact once you get away from the coast ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 I bought a truck in 2012, then we had sandy few weeks later... I bought a truck July 1st lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Well by golly, didn't realize long Island was so popular in August... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 here was the 12z ensembles for gfs euro and cmc shows the general track idea.. looking at the hurricane models forecast versus actual track... the hurricane models all started north of land so there way off course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Interesting that both the GFS and Euro ensembles get to SAV with two different tracks. Since the Euro goes wide left to get back to the right, that means it's speed is greater and ends up being picked up by the trough in the same manner as it nears the FL coast. The real weather is that the W coast of FL gets heavy rain in the GFS solution, while the Euro seems to stall out between 96 and 120. Honestly this far out, I'm impressed that the models have similar outcomes. The evolution of a low level center and data ingestion over the next 24-36 hours will give us more clarity in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 some of the hurricane models now have it hitting Florida, impressive run to run shift to the other models... but there in the 980mbs.. range so not weak per say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 18Z GEFS have fewer stalls on the Gulf Coast, although I see some perturbations that get off the coast SEUSA, then start meandering or even turning back in at 6 days. EDIT TO ADD: Some interesting members at 6 days turning back in from the Atlantic towards the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 8 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 18Z GEFS have fewer stalls on the Gulf Coast, although I see some perturbations that get off the coast SEUSA, then start meandering or even turning back in at 6 days. I noticed that it never gets to OBX but meanders back WSW to SW to the SC coast. The slow drift SW rarely seems to work out for that long of a time period so this smells like a model waffle until better data comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 22 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 18Z GEFS have fewer stalls on the Gulf Coast, although I see some perturbations that get off the coast SEUSA, then start meandering or even turning back in at 6 days. EDIT TO ADD: Some interesting members at 6 days turning back in from the Atlantic towards the Mid Atlantic. We see these kinds of weenie runs every year. It almost always corrects to a NE heading. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 17 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: We see these kinds of weenie runs every year. It almost always corrects to a NE heading. This ^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 We have seen loop dee loops before.. Matthew a few years ago I think did that and it wondered around for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 18z HWRF sends a solid Cat 1 into the big bend of Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Hopefully it gets picked up and swept northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 there is a chance it threads the needle and misses all land between now and the gulf.... it looks to be going north based on the plots so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Friday, if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Friday, if necessary. I appreciate the enthusiasm, but take a break and rest a bit. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I appreciate the enthusiasm, but take a break and rest a bit. its my day off you wont be getting much of anything after today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Looks like the annual “Tampa Hurricane” is gonna be early this year. . 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 New GFS is Tampa Bay area, which, judging by Charlie and Ian, means down towards Naples or Port Charlotte, and then slowing to a crawl as it passes offshore of the OBX and erodes the beaches before the second half of August through early October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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