Hurricane Debby

[Sportybx]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

Depends. North of Oregon Inlet? Fine. South of it, woof.

Emerald island … 

[GaWx]

 Believe it or not, the 0Z GFS is the 12th in a row that is coming back W into GA on THU AM! Also, after yesterday’s 6Z GEFS was the first run in days to have more members finally getting away from that kind of thing, the last 3 runs have come back S again.

 The GFS suite actually has had a little bit of company since 12Z today: the 12Z JMA and now 0Z JMA are also stalling and then coming W into lower SC. No JMA had done that in the prior days.

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: again further SW with a LF barely N of CHS. This is the first run since the 12Z 8/3 run that didn’t hit Georgetown or further north.

 The 0Z UKMET seems to be running very late.

[Jebman]

Deb's remnants do not seem to be moving very much. I have been watching some of the news stations in the Hilton Head region, the forecasts are VERY alarming with torrential rains training over the same places for frackin' DAYS and DAYS.

[Jebman]

8 hours ago, eyewall said:

Here is the 18z GFS run in all its glory for Debby:

That run, is a NIGHTMARE.

Throw it out.

[GaWx]

0Z 8/6 UKMET is finally out: LF Georgetown, then goes to Charlotte but then turns NE and strengthens back down to 990 mb and ends in N Maine.

 I’ve continued to get on and off heavy bands of rainfall the last few hours along with a few gusts likely as high as 40-45, about the strongest here so far for Debby. I believe I’ve now exceeded 8” for this storm (similar to KSAV) with that during just the last 18 hours though street flooding isn’t quite as bad as before due to an earlier lull in the heavy rain. I bet the drainage canals are full!

[Jebman]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z 8/6 UKMET is finally out: LF Georgetown, then goes to Charlotte but then turns NE and strengthens back down to 990 mb and ends in N Maine.

 I’ve continued to get on and off heavy bands of rainfall the last few hours along with a few gusts likely as high as 40-45, about the strongest here so far for Debby. I believe I’ve now exceeded 8” for this storm (similar to KSAV) with that during just the last 18 hours though street flooding isn’t quite as bad as before due to an earlier lull in the heavy rain. I bet the drainage canals are full!

How much rain are you expecting with Debby?

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, Jebman said:

How much rain are you expecting with Debby?

 I’m wild guessing another 4-6” over the next couple of days, which would give me an amazing storm total of ~12-14” should that occur. The only other storm/event likely comparable that I can recall would be Matthew of 2016.

 But it isn’t Debby, alone, that’s impacting the flooding. During the prior 2.5 weeks, I got a whopping ~10” from afternoon/evening or convection, about 2.5 times the normal for that period. So, I’m now ~18” just within the last 3 weeks and with several more inches likely from Debby, which should get me to >20” for just a 3 week period!

[Jebman]

The rain band is moving slowly north of Savanna. They just may catch a break that could lower totals, be less catastrophic.

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, Jebman said:

The rain band is moving slowly north of Savanna. They just may catch a break that could lower totals, be less catastrophic.

It does seem like most of the coastal areas will get a dry slot as the center passes. A lot of models push a lot of the moisture to the west side of the storm once the storm has made it back over water and starts moving inland. This is where the bad flooding will occur. Probably impacting the SC coast the most.

[StantonParkHoya]

My goodness she is hollowed out

[senc30]

27 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It does seem like most of the coastal areas will get a dry slot as the center passes. A lot of models push a lot of the moisture to the west side of the storm once the storm has made it back over water and starts moving inland. This is where the bad flooding will occur. Probably impacting the SC coast the most.

I noticed that to. Wondering what that means for areas north and east of the storm around Jacksonville, etc. With the current NHC track, it would seem that less rain would be possible but at this point, it's a wait and see. 

[Kevin Reilly]

There is a boat load of dry air working around the bottom of Debby and pushing up behind her from the Southwest this could be a big deal in helping with limiting the heavy rain up in South Carolina outside of that one or two bands that set up to the north, northwest, and northeast of the decaying center. 

[senc30]

Looking at wunderground, they have their track saying Debby now should move south east in order to get back on track. Weird looking stuff. 

[BooneWX]

8 hours ago, Sportybx said:

Emerald island … 

Should be just fine. Emerald Isle has easy access off of the island. When you said OBX, I was worried you were saying Okracoke or Hatteras - both of which fair poorly in even weaker storms. 

[eyewall]

There is definitely a lot of dry air wrapped into the core which has essentially rotted out. With that in mind it is going to be hard for it to rebuild that offshore. Obviously all the rain is mainly north and east of the center at this point.

[Sportybx]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Should be just fine. Emerald Isle has easy access off of the island. When you said OBX, I was worried you were saying Okracoke or Hatteras - both of which fair poorly in even weaker storms. 

Thanks bro , appreciate it 

[AmericanWxFreak]

10 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Depends. North of Oregon Inlet? Fine. South of it, woof.

Would your recommend someone in Topsail to head out'?

[StantonParkHoya]

10 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Would your recommend someone in Topsail to head out'?

Topsail is going to be fine

[BooneWX]

11 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Would your recommend someone in Topsail to head out'?

No - only folks on Hatteras at this point. All else should fair well. 

[NorthHillsWx]

It seems like this may be becoming a bigger deal for piedmont areas in NC. My rainfall forecast has been increased from 5-8” to 8-12” since yesterday. Coastal areas are much better at handling that volume of rain since it’s flat. However, those are hurricane Fran/Floyd type values for inland areas and that’s on top of a lot of rain last two weeks. This could be a bad situation further inland than was thought yesterday 

[NorthHillsWx]

I do agree- Savannah may catch a break here. They are firmly out of the heavy bands and I don’t see this back building over them unless this goes WAY SE. The more northern track probably spared them. Charleston may have a bit of a break after this band passes but there’s no way they don’t keep getting pounded with rain next few days given model consistency there. Being a lot of the city already has 8-14” of rain it seems likely that the 16-20” forecasts there will verify with some areas getting much more. I think the next heavy band that sets up over Charleston could cause the “catastrophic” flooding as the flood situation is already bad there and there’s literally nowhere for the water to go at this point. It’s one band away from reaching that point already. 

[olafminesaw]

21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It seems like this may be becoming a bigger deal for piedmont areas in NC. My rainfall forecast has been increased from 5-8” to 8-12” since yesterday. Coastal areas are much better at handling that volume of rain since it’s flat. However, those are hurricane Fran/Floyd type values for inland areas and that’s on top of a lot of rain last two weeks. This could be a bad situation further inland than was thought yesterday 

Seems like every flood event there's somewhere that's supposed to get crushed that doesn't and somewhere that's on the fringe that gets way more than expected. It's near impossible to predict where so the forecast is always smoothed out, and an unrealistic depiction of reality. Which frustrates the general public, but there's not a great alternative.

[StantonParkHoya]

47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I do agree- Savannah may catch a break here. They are firmly out of the heavy bands and I don’t see this back building over them unless this goes WAY SE. The more northern track probably spared them. Charleston may have a bit of a break after this band passes but there’s no way they don’t keep getting pounded with rain next few days given model consistency there. Being a lot of the city already has 8-14” of rain it seems likely that the 16-20” forecasts there will verify with some areas getting much more. I think the next heavy band that sets up over Charleston could cause the “catastrophic” flooding as the flood situation is already bad there and there’s literally nowhere for the water to go at this point. It’s one band away from reaching that point already. 

Unless the GFS were to verify. Only gives ~3 inches at RDU.

Im also dubious this is still a TS

[senc30]

13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Unless the GFS were to verify. Only gives ~3 inches at RDU.

Im also dubious this is still a TS

Agreed. I've been wondering how it's still a TS since after midnight. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Debby is indeed hollowed out, but the center is still there and close enough to the coast it shouldn't weaken much over land.

 

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[WxWatcher007]

This was from the 5am. It’s probably still a marginal TS. 
 

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Debby's center is just inland of the Georgia coast while most of
the deep convection is oriented in a couple of bands over the
Atlantic waters feeding northwestward into South Carolina.
Scatterometer data from late last evening indicated that the
tropical-storm-force wind field had expanded eastward over the
Atlantic waters, and that the maximum sustained winds were near 40
kt.  This was confirmed by a few observations of 35-40 kt sustained
winds along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.  The initial
intensity is therefore held at 40 kt.

[olafminesaw]

The 11 am advisory has Debby right at the coast just south of Tybee island. It is still expected to reach 60 mph before landfall and maintenance TS strength deep into central NC. Keep in mind even though the track makes it look like Debby won't spend much time over water, it won't make landfall again for another 36-48 hours

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The center is disrupted enough it won't become a hurricane again over water, but if it gets far enough out, I could see near hurricane pressure but without the hurricane force winds because it won't have enough time.

[MaggyNoLia]

Getting lucky here in Charleston at the moment. Rain has decreased considerably and it's low tide so that is helping draw some of this water away.