Hurricane Debby

[SnoSki14]

  On 8/5/2024 at 2:24 AM, Seminole said:

That is not how RI is supposed to happen. Dry air and running into shallower waters is my guess as to why.

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It's not dry air, it's the broad circulation. No models had it being much more than a Cat 1.

Not every hurricane is going to blow past intensity forecasts. 

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

its the eyewall closing off per twc. its attempting to at the very least

[wthrmn654]

teal is doing a loop at the eye center either it missed or its checking something.. 

[friedmators]

I miss storm mode. Lotta worthless posts going on here.


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[Seminole]

  On 8/5/2024 at 2:34 AM, wthrmn654 said:

its the eyewall closing off per twc. its attempting to at the very least

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Debby is running out of time. What is happening looks very similar to the Euro solution. 

[wthrmn654]

recon  doing that loop made a mess of a map to read but im only seeing 985.3mb lowest..

[csnavywx]

She's still tilted slightly N/NE looking at the radar velocity tilts. Given a westerly shear vector though, that should not take long to fix. Low level center should finish doing a little counterclockwise loop in the next few hours, align and spin up, barring some big dry air ingestion.

[NorthHillsWx]

Hurricane. Upgrade official 

[WxWatcher007]

Honestly I don’t think there’s been anything terribly surprising today. Despite the fits and starts or organization, we’ve seen lower end rapid intensification the last 36 hours. It’s organizing at a faster pace the closer it gets to the coast, as expected, and it should be a solid category one perhaps “low end” two at landfall. The most interesting thing has been the level of wobbling as this tried to tighten an inner core. That could have downstream impacts if this turns east sooner and reaches the Atlantic faster but we’ll see if that actually happens. 

Thought we’d see more consensus between the GFS/Euro but no dice. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

# 983.9 mb EXTR

[wthrmn654]

  On 8/5/2024 at 3:06 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Honestly I don’t think there’s been anything terribly surprising today. Despite the fits and starts or organization, we’ve seen lower end rapid intensification the last 36 hours. It’s organizing at a faster pace the closer it gets to the coast, as expected, and it should be a solid category one perhaps “low end” two at landfall. The most interesting thing has been the level of wobbling as this tried to tighten an inner core. That could have downstream impacts if this turns east sooner and reaches the Atlantic faster but we’ll see if that actually happens. 

Thought we’d see more consensus between the GFS/Euro but no dice. 

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i was looking at radar unless its just a trick of the eye it looks like its moving north east.. but again i cant say that for sure..

[wthrmn654]

that low pressure is way east now

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 8/5/2024 at 3:13 AM, wthrmn654 said:

i was looking at radar unless its just a trick of the eye it looks like its moving north east.. but again i cant say that for sure..

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If I were chasing this one I’d probably be in Steinhatchee, and more than a little nervous that it’ll come in further south due to this more eastward movement. That said, these can wobble a lot. Add in the tilting like @csnavywx noted and the tightening of the core, the recon fixes are even more important. The radar the last 90 minutes has been interesting.

Seeing lightning now in the eastern eyewall as it tries again to tighten and close off. 

 

[Floydbuster]

This is a run of the mill August Cat 1 Florida hurricane. As American as apple pie. However, that slowdown could be a really historic flood risk. Awful for areas to be impacted. 

[wthrmn654]

  On 8/5/2024 at 3:26 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

If I were chasing this one I’d probably be in Steinhatchee, and more than a little nervous that it’ll come in further south due to this more eastward movement. That said, these can wobble a lot. Add in the tilting like @csnavywx noted and the tightening of the core, the recon fixes are even more important. The radar the last 90 minutes has been interesting.

Seeing lightning now in the eastern eyewall as it tries again to tighten and close off. 

 

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still so odd to see it with such a due east look at the moment. 

[USCG RS]

Still a bit broad, hut this has Charlie vibes currently. No, I am not calling for a Cat 4 hurricane at LF, but Debby has a lot of fuel to work with. 

[wthrmn654]

[WxWatcher007]

  On 8/5/2024 at 3:33 AM, wthrmn654 said:

still so odd to see it with such a due east look at the moment. 

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I bet Cedar Key folks are hoping for a northward resumption soon. 

[wthrmn654]

  On 8/5/2024 at 3:43 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I bet Cedar Key folks are hoping for a northward resumption soon. 

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agreed. unless something changes soon this is coming ashore further south in that area... 

[Floydbuster]

Video update on Hurricane Debby
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGe2l_tBMNA

[wthrmn654]

once it did that east jog it looks to have a north east motion now. 

[NotSureWeather]

  On 8/5/2024 at 3:50 AM, wthrmn654 said:

once it did that east jog it looks to have a north east motion now. 

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GFS is looking NE of the 18z run.

[NotSureWeather]

  On 8/5/2024 at 3:52 AM, NotSureWeather said:

GFS is looking NE of the 18z run.

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Still goes basically due west after crossing into the Atlantic

[WxWatcher007]

Recon now reports a 30nm eye that’s open in the northeast per latest VDM. 77kt FL wind and extrapolated pressure at 979.8mb. 

[Amped]

Nice straight line.

[Jebman]

  On 8/5/2024 at 3:29 AM, Floydbuster said:

This is a run of the mill August Cat 1 Florida hurricane. As American as apple pie. However, that slowdown could be a really historic flood risk. Awful for areas to be impacted. 

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Look out SE South Carolina region, likely 20-25 inch totals.

[wthrmn654]

there no doubt about it now there deft is a easterly movement. 

[wthrmn654]

shes growing in size suddenly!

[wthrmn654]