Windspeed Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Debby's core appears to have wrapped banding around the MLC, a sign that it is mixing out stable airmass. Remains to be seen if the core band will intensify now into a closed eyewall, but Debby does appear to be improving structurally. The small pseudo-eye feature remains. In fact, it has evolved into concentric rings. That inner band may actually collapse pretty fast if the stronger outer band takes off and intensifies. At any rate, Debby is most likely nearing hurricane intensity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 clear northeast track now on radar!! radarscope shows an eye or nearly one.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Super unimpressive first recon pass -- didn't even find pressure as low as the current advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 All (almost) of Debbie on radar: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 3 minutes ago, beanskip said: Super unimpressive first recon pass -- didn't even find pressure as low as the current advisory. First pass missed the center 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 5 minutes ago, beanskip said: Super unimpressive first recon pass -- didn't even find pressure as low as the current advisory. So much for all the RI talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: Super unimpressive first recon pass -- didn't even find pressure as low as the current advisory. Yea recon kinda aligns with what I posted about a little while ago. The dry air it sucked in earlier is entrained in the core. Storms are firing and not sustaining. Downdrafts are probably affecting the stability of any cohesive eyewall at the moment. Due to the overall improvement of the cyclones structure, I doubt dry air is still getting into the circulation, but it’s dealing with the effects from earlier. This will eventually mix out but until it does the storm will struggle. You can kinda see the popcorn storms within the CDO on satellite illustrating this. Recon timed it perfectly for when the most recent eyewall collapse occurred so it’s probably in a wind minimum at the moment. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 lol that missed center recon pass confirms that its east of forecast though.. they likely went to forecasted position... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Best thing that could happen would be a deteriorating storm going into landfall 3 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Might not be RI but I definitely don’t think it’s getting weaker. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 thoughts are if the jog east stays without any correction a slightly more east landfall closer to cedar key would be possible-TWC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 From the 8 PM NHC position graphic you can clearly see its east of forecast position. Have to see the impacts that has down the line. May imply Debby gets further out into the Atlantic than currently forecast. Gets far enough over the water might lesson the flooding threat a tad for coastal SC, but more potential to restrengthen. Would also have a bit less time to strength before the initial landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 8pm advisory brought winds up to 70mph but pressure stayed same. You don't see that happen often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Up to 70mph . Eye clearly visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 when recon did dropsonde near the eye but missed they recorded 994 at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: SE right quadrant fighting some dry air. That and now entering shallow waters the rest of the way will keep Debby from exploding before landfall. The NHC 85 mph max looks reasonable given this setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Up to 70mph . Eye clearly visible Cat 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 1 minute ago, kdxken said: Cat 2? Likely not enough time to optimize the core structure before she runs out of fuel. Like Beryl, this could be another miss by a few extra hours over water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Teal and noaa are in the storm, teal doesnt apear to be doing dropsondes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Teal and noaa are in the storm, teal doesnt apear to be doing dropsondes. How in the world are all these flights still landing at TPA??? There are a couple of AA flights basically in the storm! No chance in hell I'm on that one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 AF recon just made a proper center pass. 986 extrap pressure. There you go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 This looks like a hurricane on radar now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 whoever just mentioned the planes.. looking at some of them trying to land now.. some had to do holding patterns int he gulf area i guess waiting in line... but stilll thats where its wild now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: whoever just mentioned the planes.. looking at some of them trying to land now.. some had to do holding patterns int he gulf area i guess waiting in line... but stilll thats where its wild now... Exactly. Those folks are probably screaming at this point. If you were on AA 1788 from PHX to TPA, I want to interview you! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 was updated to show the right shift.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Getting solid pressure falls on recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 TEAL is measuring winds over 70knots... NOAA is measuring winds SFMR of 60 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 22 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Exactly. Those folks are probably screaming at this point. If you were on AA 1788 from PHX to TPA, I want to interview you! flight UAL 1710 us flying into the storm, north of the eye a little bit, towards tampa, it looks like 23,000 feet and dropping, now that must be a flight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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