Hurricane Debby

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Interesting that both GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles have a fair number of members still near the coast or offshore SEUSA or in the Gulf at 10 days.  The models seem to have a lot of stalled or looping members, that increases flooding risk.  

[wthrmn654]

gefs is east, closer to florida, versus eps west... 

 

we have seen this before though and its going either be a win for the euro or a win for the gfs.

[wthrmn654]

 oh, looking through my tropical favorites other day, sadly, we have lost the model plots maps from : www.sfwmd.gov

 

they have discontinued them sadly.. i liked there model 

[cptcatz]

Is it me or is it it trying to form a center of rotation here to the north of Hispaniola? If it does spin something up there, that would put it a good bit north of modeling and have it over hot water for much longer than anticipated. 

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Is it me or is it it trying to form a center of rotation here to the north of Hispaniola? If it does spin something up there, that would put it a good bit north of modeling and have it over hot water for much longer than anticipated. 

Could be a flare up, but will be interesting to see if it confines etc.

[wthrmn654]

just making a correctio to my model post just realized that the maps were 00z and 6z

[wthrmn654]

gfs is about the same so far out to 48hrs placement wise

[wthrmn654]

its hugging the western side of florida again, about same position as last run east of 00z run though.. looks like something changed to want it to be closer to florida so far

[wthrmn654]

hour 84 it turns northeast into florida.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

58 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Is it me or is it it trying to form a center of rotation here to the north of Hispaniola? If it does spin something up there, that would put it a good bit north of modeling and have it over hot water for much longer than anticipated. 

CIMMS product shows low level vort over the Dominican Republic, where the mountains should keep development in check, and 500 mb vort to the SE of the low level vort, a bit S of the Mona Channel.  A new vortmax could form N of the GA, or maybe under the midlevel vort max, but honestly, I think it is too early to call where the center develops.  Excluding the extreme outliers of the ensembles, I think anywhere ensembles show a possible landfall is in play.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

If we do PBP for each major model every two minutes as the next frame becomes available, 3 or 4 times a day, this will turn into a 100 page thread by the time of landfall.

[Seminole]

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

its hugging the western side of florida again, about same position as last run east of 00z run though.. looks like something changed to want it to be closer to florida so far

Land friction will keep RI in check. 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Seminole said:

Land friction will keep RI in check. 

yep looking at rainfall total estimates from this run to last its a little east of last run but deft closer to coastline. very wet!!

[wthrmn654]

it starts exiting land near the georgia/florida borders roughly speaking hour hour 102 fully over atlantic at 108

[Alfoman]

Want to relay an important caveat to all the early ensembles and models - the placement of the broad LLC will be critical in the GOM track. Regardless of whether it has a weak surface reflection at the moment, land interaction over Cuba and the mountains on the west side of the island will likely cause some re-structuring of the mid-level and low level circulation. 

The 12Z GFS has the broad vorticity elongated as it passes Western Cuba at 60 hours but has the LLC forming on the northern fringe of that vort - could easily see a shift by 100s of miles if that formation happens west of that spot. Anyone from LA to the FL coast should be on alert - once its go time, there's not much stopping immediate strengthening.  

[Seminole]

Low Country and OBX is in for some serious coastal erosion with this run. 

 

[wthrmn654]

wonder where shes going after 234 lol

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: slow mover (huge rainfall potential) that moves NNE with a landfall FL panhandle; turns E through N FL and then deepens offshore 

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 27.9N  85.9W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 05.08.2024   96  28.9N  86.2W     1010            33
    0000UTC 06.08.2024  108  29.2N  85.5W     1009            29
    1200UTC 06.08.2024  120  31.2N  85.1W     1009            29
    0000UTC 07.08.2024  132  30.1N  83.8W     1006            26
    1200UTC 07.08.2024  144  30.8N  82.5W     1003            34
    0000UTC 08.08.2024  156  31.0N  80.4W      997            46
    1200UTC 08.08.2024  168  30.8N  79.5W      994            43

[yoda]

12z CMC is fast... 97L is gone by next Thursday out into the Atlantic 

[MANDA]

Models are swinging like a chandelier in an earthquake.  With no defined center that is to be fully expected.

Land interaction over the next 2-3 days will be a big inhibitor.

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Dr. Hazelton on Twitter notes the 'squished spider' model tracks, suggesting uncertain steering.  Florida Panhandle or W. Peninsula seems most likely impact point, with a potential second landfall or near miss near OBX and marine effects New England.  As noted on other weatherboards, SSTs and OHC in the E. Gulf is higher than normal, so time over water could make a large difference in intensity.  I would note GFS ensembles make it clear the main determinant of where 97L goes in the next 5 days is where it forms.  As I noted, LLC over mountains of DR, vigorous convection N of G. Antilles, and mid level vorticity SE of low level vorticity, or where it forms is very much in doubt.

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

You could have edited the previous post or delete the prior post.  The every 2 minute latest hour from the model stuff tends to clutter the board.

 

[wthrmn654]

very difficult to upload the gif when your limited to only 1.95mb uploads lol  but thats roughly the the gfs cyclonic PV  (assuming that this and tropical tidbits are the same thing roughly)

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Dr. Hazelton on Twitter notes the 'squished spider' model tracks, suggesting uncertain steering.  Florida Panhandle or W. Peninsula seems most likely impact point, with a potential second landfall or near miss near OBX and marine effects New England.  As noted on other weatherboards, SSTs and OHC in the E. Gulf is higher than normal, so time over water could make a large difference in intensity.  I would note GFS ensembles make it clear the main determinant of where 97L goes in the next 5 days is where it forms.  As I noted, LLC over mountains of DR, vigorous convection N of G. Antilles, and mid level vorticity SE of low level vorticity, or where it forms is very much in doubt.

You could have edited the previous post or delete the prior post.  The every 2 minute latest hour from the model stuff tends to clutter the board.

 

was trying to do 1 gif of the whole thing obviously lol unless theres a way im not aware of

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

WxMan57 currently buys a system moving N just off W Coast of Florida.  He even has expected wind impacts, but notes without an organized center for models to work with, uncertainty in his forecast is higher than he'd like.

 

Eyeball mean of GFS ensembles suggests Florida Big Bend but landfall location seems to be highly dependent on where the center actually forms.

[wthrmn654]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

was trying to do 1 gif of the whole thing obviously lol unless theres a way im not aware of

 

3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Dr. Hazelton on Twitter notes the 'squished spider' model tracks, suggesting uncertain steering.  Florida Panhandle or W. Peninsula seems most likely impact point, with a potential second landfall or near miss near OBX and marine effects New England.  As noted on other weatherboards, SSTs and OHC in the E. Gulf is higher than normal, so time over water could make a large difference in intensity.  I would note GFS ensembles make it clear the main determinant of where 97L goes in the next 5 days is where it forms.  As I noted, LLC over mountains of DR, vigorous convection N of G. Antilles, and mid level vorticity SE of low level vorticity, or where it forms is very much in doubt.

You could have edited the previous post or delete the prior post.  The every 2 minute latest hour from the model stuff tends to clutter the board.

 

oh i could upload then use the exsisting uploads in 1 post techincally 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

was trying to do 1 gif of the whole thing obviously lol unless theres a way im not aware of

I used to be a donating member here, which increases file size limits.  If I make a whole season w/o a suspension I may donate again.

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I used to be a donating member here, which increases file size limits.  If I make a whole season w/o a suspension I may donate again.

ahhh so thats how you get biggger! well that makes sense lol