TPAwx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 8 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: Are you getting anything yet? Radar looking like some bands might start coming through shortly but it has been looking like that for a couple hours now and still waiting on first sign of rain. Even getting some blue skies popping through the breaks in clouds. Maybe its a dome over my area but just seems to break apart before it gets here each time. In between bands at the moment. No gauge but we’ve easily had over 2” so far. Coverage should pick up later today and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 She's got full counter clockwise rotation now on satellite loop. Fyi:Cmc 12z pressure started at 1000mb, which is higher then what's seen. So it's weaker this run. Icon was east overall and again clobbered the entire east coast with rain with the craziest amounts down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 In between bands at the moment. No gauge but we’ve easily had over 2” so far. Coverage should pick up later today and overnight.Interesting just goes to show how fine the lines are, I just walked out to my car just to see if maybe my eyes were deceiving me and yeah not a drop or sign of rain and I’m maybe 20-30 minutes away from you. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 We are getting a good band here in Gulfport right now. https://thegabber.com/gulfport-casino-web-cam/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 12Z GFS once again comes back into GA coast from off the water. However, CMC has caved to normalcy and goes NE up the SE coast. JMA once again does that, too. UKMET and Euro still not out yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 minute ago, GaWx said: 12Z GFS once again comes back into GA coast from off the water. However, CMC has caved to normalcy and goes NE up the SE coast. JMA once again does that, too. UKMET and Euro still not out yet. And icon. Now, let's remember, the gfs was the first I believe to show this going on the gulf. So there's some believeable ness to that model.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z GFS once again comes back into GA coast from off the water. However, CMC has caved to normalcy and goes NE up the SE coast. JMA once again does that, too. UKMET and Euro still not out yet. Gfs is on an island right now. Icon furthest east and strongest. At this point a blend of the ukie/euro/cmc/icon seems reasonable 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 4 Author Share Posted August 4 10 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: And icon. Now, let's remember, the gfs was the first I believe to show this going on the gulf. So there's some believeable ness to that model.. 8 minutes ago, shaggy said: Gfs is on an island right now. Icon furthest east and strongest. At this point a blend of the ukie/euro/cmc/icon seems reasonable This. Even a substantial portion of its ensembles have disagreed with driving it that far inland. It seems synoptically unlikely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 12Z UKMET has major changes from prior UK runs: -much slower movement -now turns E/ESE to offshore GA/lower SC at a time when 0Z was already well up the NC coast -while offshore restrengthens and then turns N with landfall at Georgetown, SC -moves N into E NC TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 84.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.08.2024 0 26.5N 84.1W 1001 42 0000UTC 05.08.2024 12 28.3N 84.4W 997 51 1200UTC 05.08.2024 24 29.7N 84.1W 996 40 0000UTC 06.08.2024 36 30.8N 83.6W 1000 32 1200UTC 06.08.2024 48 31.9N 82.5W 1000 39 0000UTC 07.08.2024 60 31.8N 81.7W 997 39 1200UTC 07.08.2024 72 31.4N 79.9W 993 47 0000UTC 08.08.2024 84 31.7N 79.0W 990 46 1200UTC 08.08.2024 96 32.2N 79.0W 988 40 0000UTC 09.08.2024 108 32.7N 79.2W 989 39 1200UTC 09.08.2024 120 33.7N 79.2W 993 42 0000UTC 10.08.2024 132 34.1N 79.2W 996 38 1200UTC 10.08.2024 144 35.7N 78.2W 1001 35 0000UTC 11.08.2024 156 36.7N 76.7W 1003 43 1200UTC 11.08.2024 168 37.3N 73.8W 1002 43 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z UKMET has major changes from prior UK runs: -much slower movement -now turns E/ESE to offshore GA/lower SC -while offshore restrengthens and then turns N with landfall at Georgetown, SC -moves N into E NC TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 84.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.08.2024 0 26.5N 84.1W 1001 42 0000UTC 05.08.2024 12 28.3N 84.4W 997 51 1200UTC 05.08.2024 24 29.7N 84.1W 996 40 0000UTC 06.08.2024 36 30.8N 83.6W 1000 32 1200UTC 06.08.2024 48 31.9N 82.5W 1000 39 0000UTC 07.08.2024 60 31.8N 81.7W 997 39 1200UTC 07.08.2024 72 31.4N 79.9W 993 47 0000UTC 08.08.2024 84 31.7N 79.0W 990 46 1200UTC 08.08.2024 96 32.2N 79.0W 988 40 0000UTC 09.08.2024 108 32.7N 79.2W 989 39 1200UTC 09.08.2024 120 33.7N 79.2W 993 42 0000UTC 10.08.2024 132 34.1N 79.2W 996 38 1200UTC 10.08.2024 144 35.7N 78.2W 1001 35 0000UTC 11.08.2024 156 36.7N 76.7W 1003 43 1200UTC 11.08.2024 168 37.3N 73.8W 1002 43 Falling in better agreement with the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Gfs then brings another "make believe" tropical system from about Cuba up the exact path as derby a few days later lmao... I think the Gfs,( 12z again...), has lost its marbles or has a few to many drinks at the bar last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z UKMET has major changes from prior UK runs: -much slower movement -now turns E/ESE to offshore GA/lower SC at a time when 0Z was already well up the NC coast -while offshore restrengthens and then turns N with landfall at Georgetown, SC -moves N into E NC TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 84.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.08.2024 0 26.5N 84.1W 1001 42 0000UTC 05.08.2024 12 28.3N 84.4W 997 51 1200UTC 05.08.2024 24 29.7N 84.1W 996 40 0000UTC 06.08.2024 36 30.8N 83.6W 1000 32 1200UTC 06.08.2024 48 31.9N 82.5W 1000 39 0000UTC 07.08.2024 60 31.8N 81.7W 997 39 1200UTC 07.08.2024 72 31.4N 79.9W 993 47 0000UTC 08.08.2024 84 31.7N 79.0W 990 46 1200UTC 08.08.2024 96 32.2N 79.0W 988 40 0000UTC 09.08.2024 108 32.7N 79.2W 989 39 1200UTC 09.08.2024 120 33.7N 79.2W 993 42 0000UTC 10.08.2024 132 34.1N 79.2W 996 38 1200UTC 10.08.2024 144 35.7N 78.2W 1001 35 0000UTC 11.08.2024 156 36.7N 76.7W 1003 43 1200UTC 11.08.2024 168 37.3N 73.8W 1002 43 Results in a much stronger landfall. Edit: Actually only slightly stronger. But further offshore track should in theory give it a lot more time to reorganize. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 16 minutes ago, shaggy said: Falling in better agreement with the euro It is closer to the 0Z Euro track. However, the 12Z UKMET storm is moving so much more slowly that at hour 96 it is still 75 miles SE of CHS. The 0Z Euro 108 hour position was 130 miles to the N of that on the coast at the SC/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Center clearly shows an easterly movement on radar last hour, even NE. Wonder if the center is still aligning which will wobble it back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 It seems like for the entire time that I've been watching weather, no tropical system has ever brought more than about 30-40 mph wind to Tampa. And this morning, it is 30 something mph gusts at St. Petersburg. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Decent band of storms just west of I-95 along the space coast. I’m a mile or two east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 25 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Gfs then brings another "make believe" tropical system from about Cuba up the exact path as derby a few days later lmao... I think the Gfs,( 12z again...), has lost its marbles or has a few to many drinks at the bar last night.. About 40% of the Euro ensembles at 6Z formed a cyclone from the wave around 57W. Half of those stay weak and S, cruise in Central America, and die. Half are heading into the Yucatan at hour 144, and will make the Gulf. The model buildup to Debby started with a few ECENS seeing it, than more ECENS, until finally other models, a few days later, started seeing it. If the Euro ensembles are an indication, the runs that stay well N of the Venezuelan coast get stronger in the C. Caribbean abd head for the Yucatan. Back to Debby and modeling, I'd expect a bit E of the GFS. Models, for some reason, under react (EDIT SPELLING) to shear pushing the MLF downshear, which drags the LLC along. That puts it over water longer (EDIT TO ADD: longer over the Atlantic), keeps it stronger than a 40 knot storm off the SE Coast, and moves second landfall N, maybe far enough E to miss the OBX. But a stronger second landfall, further up the coast. I'd slide the entire NHC forecast a bit more E, with a stronger TS than forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Does the stubborn, crazy GFS still have support from its ensembles offshore the SE? Yes as 75% of 12Z GEFS members go back NW into the SE coast CHS south. This is similar to prior GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 12 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: About 40% of the Euro ensembles at 6Z formed a cyclone from the wave around 57W. Half of those stay weak and S, cruise in Central America, and die. Half are heading into the Yucatan at hour 144, and will make the Gulf. The model buildup to Debby started with a few ECENS seeing it, than more ECENS, until finally other models, a few days later, started seeing it. If the Euro ensembles are an indication, the runs that stay well N of the Venezuelan coast get stronger in the C. Caribbean abd head for the Yucatan. Back to Debby and modeling, I'd expect a bit E of the GFS. Models, for some reason, under react (EDIT SPELLING) to shear pushing the MLF downshear, which drags the LLC along. That puts it over water longer (EDIT TO ADD: longer over the Atlantic), keeps it stronger than a 40 knot storm off the SE Coast, and moves second landfall N, maybe far enough E to miss the OBX. But a stronger second landfall, further up the coast. I'd slide the entire NHC forecast a bit more E, with a stronger TS than forecast. I could see it being a glancing blow or close but barely miss for most north of Virginia... Edit: big rain though, not so much wind, as if this point.. could change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: Does the stubborn, crazy GFS still have support from its ensembles offshore the SE? Yes as 75% of 12Z GEFS members go back NW into the SE coast CHS south. This is similar to prior GEFS. OK this is only a small piece but, tell me that doesn't look ridiculous..I see some of them doing multiple loop de loops like there on a "roller coaster" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 183.31 ± 3.0 GHz Brightness Temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 I wish I could do the loop for this but it's impossible to download the gif on phone. It's nearly a closed center atleast on this. Synthetic Passive Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (Consensus, 4 km Mercator) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Lastly for a while, should really be working as parks packed like crazy, Just some verification stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 4 Author Share Posted August 4 Until it can fully close off an eyewall it’ll be susceptible to dry air intrusions and organization happening in fits and starts. Going to take some time. Edit: meanwhile, coastal flooding ongoing 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 It is honestly amazing how talented downtown Tampa is at avoiding tropical systems 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Models are trending east generally including the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Kind of crazy how low confidence is for only 48 hours out. I'm not buying the bipolar roller coaster these models have been spitting out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Until it can fully close off an eyewall it’ll be susceptible to dry air intrusions and organization happening in fits and starts. Going to take some time. Edit: meanwhile, coastal flooding ongoing In my opinion this is organizing extremely quickly. Look at banding outside of the core. It’s setting itself up for rapid intensification. I’m actually impressed with how quickly this has come together since this time yesterday. Every time I look at satellite or radar it looks like a more mature system. I think cat 2 is attainable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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