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Hurricane Debby


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26 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Core convection is beginning to organize. Evident banding starting to consolidate around the low-level vortex. Should be stacking now with the MLC.

5df49eb29506dc364b5095cee24c35ec.gif

Pretty quick change in just the last hour or so. 

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5 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Good news is this one will be in radar range the entire time until landfall.  Still think it starts to intensify quickly tonight 

Hopefully it doesn't. Honestly, I'm just not feeling this one. But the rainfall will be prolific for sure.

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 Once again, the GFS goes offshore and then comes back to the coast (5th run in a row), this time just S of me (furthest S yet I think) giving me TS wind gusts combined with the very heavy rain probably causing many uprooted trees. I need a generator.

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Bizarre complex track shown by the GFS and CMC. The troff lifts out and the 250mb flow shifts to the NW due to the ridge over the Central US. Then a tutt forms over FL while a ridge builds over the Carolinas, shifting 250mb  winds back to the ESE forcing forcing the storm back to the west.

Almost a 180 degree shift in the 250mb winds between hr 60 and 102

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0Z UKMET: LF slightly E of prior runs in W Big Bend; then to SC GA to SE of Augusta, then E/NE to NE SC, E NC, NC coast, Newfoundland; once again, UKMET moves much more quickly than GFS/Euro and gets to NC by 108…so again not the huge flood threat of GFS/Euro on this much more common path:

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 83.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2024 0 23.5N 83.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 04.08.2024 12 26.6N 84.1W 1003 45
0000UTC 05.08.2024 24 28.4N 84.3W 1000 46
1200UTC 05.08.2024 36 29.8N 84.2W 1000 39
0000UTC 06.08.2024 48 31.0N 83.6W 1002 34
1200UTC 06.08.2024 60 33.0N 82.3W 1000 41
0000UTC 07.08.2024 72 33.0N 81.6W 996 40
1200UTC 07.08.2024 84 34.0N 79.4W 994 40
0000UTC 08.08.2024 96 34.4N 77.6W 993 39
1200UTC 08.08.2024 108 35.6N 75.4W 995 45
0000UTC 09.08.2024 120 38.9N 73.4W 997 39
1200UTC 09.08.2024 132 41.4N 69.8W 996 43
0000UTC 10.08.2024 144 45.5N 61.7W 997 39
1200UTC 10.08.2024 156 48.9N 50.0W 996 39
0000UTC 11.08.2024 168 52.5N 32.8W 992 39

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2 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

I’m curious if at the 2 AM advisory it is more NNW, seems like most models have had it starting the turn north about now and it still appears to be headed NW.


.

 

I was just about to post that it looks like its made the move towards the north, if anything it took a little jog NNE.

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19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Some odd runs tonight. It looks like the GFS loops it back into the Gulf and regenerates its remnants before taking it up the coast. :lol:

The wildly different solutions don’t create a lot of confidence.

Idk what model it was, but one had it going over FL, then to SC, hangs out on the coast before going back inland, then back to the gulf before darting up the coast to New England. Like, wtf? 

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46 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Idk what model it was, but one had it going over FL, then to SC, hangs out on the coast before going back inland, then back to the gulf before darting up the coast to New England. Like, wtf? 

1. That was the crazy 0Z GFS.

2. 0Z Euro: for 1st run since the one from 48 hours ago, the model not surprisingly based on history/climo totally abandoned the come back to lower SC or GA NW move and instead is a more normal from that position NNE move from the ocean to the SC/NC border and then up the E coast to MD followed by a move offshore. It never moves even just W of due N the entire time once out of the Gulf except when it barely did so hours 96-102.

That leaves only the GFS and the last CMC with the funky trek NW to WNW back into the SE. I’ll be looking for those to also abandon this craziness. Let’s see what the next runs of these models do.

 

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29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. That was the crazy 0Z GFS.

2. 0Z Euro: for 1st run since the one from 48 hours ago, the model not surprisingly based on history/climo totally abandoned the come back to lower SC or GA NW move and instead is a more normal from that position NNE move from the ocean to the SC/NC border and then up the E coast to MD followed by a move offshore. It never moves even just W of due N the entire time once out of the Gulf except when it barely did so hours 96-102.

That leaves only the GFS and the last CMC with the funky trek NW to WNW back into the SE. I’ll be looking for those to also abandon this craziness. Let’s see what the next runs of these models do.

 

Yeah I’m not really sure what to think. The ensembles were split between the op and a more progressive track. 

iHjju16.png

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I’m not really sure what to think. The ensembles were split between the op and a more progressive track. 

iHjju16.png


 0Z Euro ensemble mean follows the operational to some extent with a higher % taking the progressive/much more normal route up/near the E coast than any of the prior 4 runs.

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4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The radar and satellite presentation has improved dramatically. Convection trying to wrap into an eyewall now.

It couldn’t get convection upshear so it collapsed on radar, but it does look more organized on the eastern side. 

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE 
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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It looks like a nascent eyewall is now forming. Once this develops a cohesive core it might be off to the races before landfall. Unlike that storm last year that peaked too early over the gulf, this looks like it will be strengthening into landfall. I really wouldn’t rule out this making a run at 85 kts

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28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It looks like a nascent eyewall is now forming. Once this develops a cohesive core it might be off to the races before landfall. Unlike that storm last year that peaked too early over the gulf, this looks like it will be strengthening into landfall. I really wouldn’t rule out this making a run at 85 kts

image.thumb.gif.17b8550b015b118150fb4f527f5821eb.gif

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