Hurricane Debby

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

[taylorsweather]

It is unlikely that we ever see an eye so slow down on that.  Just be thankful that we are following something approaching the USA coast.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I've been staring at that, and it doesn't look like 13 knots of motion in the advisory.

[senc30]

10 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

It is unlikely that we ever see an eye so slow down on that.  Just be thankful that we are following something approaching the USA coast.

Why should we be thankful? 

[taylorsweather]

5 minutes ago, senc30 said:

Why should we be thankful? 

Because it's action that we can follow.  I hope you aren't one of THEM.  Last I checked, I'm in line to get 21 inches of rain this coming week.  I'm thankful that I can experience that in my lifetime.

[senc30]

4 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

Because it's action that we can follow.  I hope you aren't one of THEM.  Last I checked, I'm in line to get 21 inches of rain this coming week.  I'm thankful that I can experience that in my lifetime.

Not sure who THEM is but experiencing that is not a good thing for most. To each their own I reckon. 

[buckeyefan1]

24 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

It is unlikely that we ever see an eye so slow down on that.  Just be thankful that we are following something approaching the USA coast.

 

11 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

Because it's action that we can follow.  I hope you aren't one of THEM.  Last I checked, I'm in line to get 21 inches of rain this coming week.  I'm thankful that I can experience that in my lifetime.

 

Just now, Taylorsweather said:

Good God.  You are one of them.

Bless your heart. You aren't going to last too long here if this continues. Let me suggest you read more and post less

[yotaman]

I wouldn't be surprised if Debbie is a hurricane by morning.

[dan11295]

4 minutes ago, yotaman said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Debbie is a hurricane by morning.

Nah, still has a while to go to get organized and intensify, even though its been looking good on satellite. Recon is still 1004-1005 mb. Centers are not completely aligned yet it appears.

[SnowenOutThere]

21 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Nah, still has a while to go to get organized and intensify, even though its been looking good on satellite. Recon is still 1004-1005 mb. Centers are not completely aligned yet it appears.

The thread has been in fully hype mode the last couple pages but honestly it looks like it has a lot of work to do still. Very broad circulation that’s not even completely filled in with storms yet.

[NotSureWeather]

22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The thread has been in fully hype mode the last couple pages but honestly it looks like it has a lot of work to do still. Very broad circulation that’s not even completely filled in with storms yet.

Does look like dry air is doing some damage right now.

[wthrmn654]

 

[Prospero]

31 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The thread has been in fully hype mode the last couple pages but honestly it looks like it has a lot of work to do still. Very broad circulation that’s not even completely filled in with storms yet.

It must be time to say, "I see an eye!" LOL

 

[Prospero]

9 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Does look like dry air is doing some damage right now.

There has been some dry air in our part of Florida. Its been hot and muggy, yet dry enough that thunderstorms have been subdued.

Still feels like a strong storm a brewin'...

[Hotair]

Cat 1 to 2 Cane into Big Bend is becoming the consensus on several models 

 

hope those poor folks along the coast are once again battering down and heeding evac orders when issued. 

[beanskip]

Pretty unimpressive recon data so far -- looks like the latest pass may have hit 1004.

In model news, the first 0z run -- HRRR (yeah I know) -- made a big shift east from its 18z run, passing east of TLH, which would be helpful to me. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just popping in.

It’s not uncommon to have mixed signals as a TC is trying to essentially find its footing in an environment. While there is a well defined low level center, and pretty good satellite presentation, recon and radar make it clear that there’s substantial work to be done to build the kind of inner core necessary for the intensification the NHC expects. 
 

 

 

The center needs to tighten from its current elongated state so that convection can efficiently wrap around the center and begin a more significant pressure fall. 

 

There’s time for that to happen, hence the forecast. The environment is excellent for intensification and I expect Debby to take advantage of it tomorrow at a gradually faster pace.

Shear is low, and Debby is under an anticyclone.

 

Obviously, SSTs are anomalously warm. Historically so.

Dry air is nearby, which could be a somewhat limiting factor until the system develops an inner core (time sensitive)

 

The biggest limiting factor is time. This is a system that could pop extremely fast, and both the FL coast and SE coast should be prepared for a hurricane. How quickly an inner core develops to take advantage of a very favorable environment is key. SHIPS shows the potential very well. 
 

 

Those are high numbers, but it’s far from a guarantee that high end RI occurs. 

But some of this wind discussion loses sight of the real issue. There’s a lot to sort out, but this is a big hydrological system potentially up the coast between the system itself and a trough enhanced Predecessor Rain Event (PRE). 

 

Finally, track after FL is highly uncertain. While I am intrigued by the op solutions driving this well inland in the SE, the super ensemble is a bit different. Just keep that in mind as the more exotic solutions could (or could not) smooth out. 
 

 

 

 

Track images from Tomer’s site. 

[Chinook]

some wind gusts to 44mph, along with some briefly severe thunderstorms or tornado(es) near Ft Lauderdale

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just popping in.

It’s not uncommon to have mixed signals as a TC is trying to essentially find its footing in an environment. While there is a well defined low level center, and pretty good satellite presentation, recon and radar make it clear that there’s substantial work to be done to build the kind of inner core necessary for the intensification the NHC expects. 
 

 

 

The center needs to tighten from its current elongated state so that convection can efficiently wrap around the center and begin a more significant pressure fall. 

 

There’s time for that to happen, hence the forecast. The environment is excellent for intensification and I expect Debby to take advantage of it tomorrow at a gradually faster pace.

Shear is low, and Debby is under an anticyclone.

 

Obviously, SSTs are anomalously warm. Historically so.

Dry air is nearby, which could be a somewhat limiting factor until the system develops an inner core (time sensitive)

 

The biggest limiting factor is time. This is a system that could pop extreme fast, and both the FL coast and SE coast should be prepared for a hurricane. How quickly an inner core develops to take advantage of a very favorable environment is key. SHIPS shows the potential very well. 
 

 

Those are high numbers, but it’s far from a guarantee the high end RI occurs. 

But some of this wind discussion loses sight of the real issue. There’s a lot to sort out, but this is a big hydrological system potentially up the coast between the system itself and a trough enhanced Predecessor Rain Event (PRE). 

 

Finally, track after FL is highly uncertain. While I am intrigued by the op solutions driving this well inland in the SE, the super ensemble is a bit different. Just keep that in mind as the more exotic solutions could (or could not) smooth out. 
 

 

 

 

Track images from Tomer’s site. 

 I’m quite concerned here, especially due to the  threat of 10”++ of rainfall over a several day period, especially after having received 9” over the last 15 days. Besides flooding, even TS force winds could lead to many uprooted trees due to an already wet ground. In all of my years of following models of tropical systems coming to the area, this is among the wettest I’ve seen on so many runs, especially Euro and GFS.

 But a good portion of the extreme rainfall progs would depend on the crazy left turn back to the NW. If that doesn’t happen, we probably wouldn’t be as bad off.

 Edit: Just what I don’t need in advance of Debby, I’m now getting a heavy shower from convection that just popped up along an outflow boundary.

[MJO812]

0z tropical models

[dbullsfan]

 I’m quite concerned here, especially due to the  threat of 10”++ of rainfall over a several day period, especially after having received 9” over the last 15 days. Besides flooding, even TS force winds could lead to many uprooted trees due to an already wet ground. In all of my years of following models of tropical systems coming to the area, this is among the wettest I’ve seen on so many runs, especially Euro and GFS.

I definitely think Georgia and into the Carolina is much more of a threat than Florida with this one. I could be wrong but I don’t see it organizing in time to become more than a lower end cat 1 and maybe it slows down for some heavy rain fall amounts in the big bend and northern Florida areas but for most of the state I don’t see totals getting over 1-2 inches outside of remote areas hit directly by some serious bands.


.

[cptcatz]

Just got woken up to a tornado warning here in Boca Raton.  Nasty looking outer band squall line about to move through.

[Rvarookie]

If think the season goes bonkers then you have to not underestimate this one and expect it to be a creeper. It’s got that feel to it 

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m quite concerned here, especially due to the  threat of 10”++ of rainfall over a several day period, especially after having received 9” over the last 15 days. Besides flooding, even TS force winds could lead to many uprooted trees due to an already wet ground. In all of my years of following models of tropical systems coming to the area, this is among the wettest I’ve seen on so many runs, especially Euro and GFS.

 But a good portion of the extreme rainfall progs would depend on the crazy left turn back to the NW. If that doesn’t happen, we probably wouldn’t be as bad off.

There’s definitely reason to be concerned. I think the turn back N/NW is likely, even if the track smooths out a bit. A lot of vulnerable coastline as others have noted. 

 

[Rvarookie]

Any thoughts on timing for obx? Was windy enough today lol 

[Windspeed]

Core convection is beginning to organize. Evident banding starting to consolidate around the low-level vortex. Should be stacking now with the MLC.

[Jebman]

Let's hope Debby moves fast, and stays relatively weak.

[AccuChris]

As noted, an inner core is becoming more evident on recent radar loop.  The question will be lingering dry air but if it can close up and develop deep convection it should steadily strengthen

[GaWx]

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG BEND
REGION OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 83.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 83.6 West.  Debby is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward 
the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a slower motion toward 
the northeast on Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the 
center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday 
night and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning.  The 
center is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and 
southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph 
(75 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, 
and Debby is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night, before 
it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast.  Weakening is expected on 
Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.  Wind gusts to 49 mph (80 km/h) and 48 mph (78 
km/h) were recently reported at the Key West Naval Air Station and 
Key West International Airport, respectively.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1003 mb 
(29.62 inches).

[GaWx]

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been 
investigating Debby during the past few hours and have found that 
the winds have increased slightly and the central pressure has 
fallen.  The NOAA P-3 plane reported SFMR measurements of 35-40 kt 
east of the center over the Straits of Florida, and dropsonde data 
indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 1003 mb.  The 
initial intensity is therefore raised to 40 kt.

Debby is gradually turning toward the right and slowing down, and 
the initial motion is northwestward, or 320/12 kt.  A large mid- to 
upper-level trough over the eastern United States has created a 
break in the subtropical ridge, which will cause Debby to move 
northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the 
Florida Big Bend region over the next day or two.  The track 
guidance is in good agreement during this period, and the NHC track 
has only been shifted slightly east to account for a slight 
relocation of the initial position based on the aircraft data.  
After 2-3 days, the steering currents around Debby collapse, and 
the cyclone is expected to creep northeastward at less than 5 kt 
across northern Florida to near the coasts of Georgia and South 
Carolina by day 5.  While there is model disagreement on exactly 
where Debby will end up on day 5, there is high confidence that the 
storm will not be moving very fast, and this slow motion will have 
major implications for the associated hazards, particularly heavy 
rainfall and flooding.

Low vertical shear and very warm waters (as warm as 32 degrees 
Celsius within Apalachee Bay) are likely to support additional 
strengthening while Debby approaches the Florida Big Bend.  The 
intensity guidance has increased a bit on this cycle.  Most of the 
regional hurricane models are showing Debby reaching hurricane 
strength before it reaches the coast, while the 
statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models have increased to the 
75-80-kt range.  In addition, the Rapid Intensification indices are 
showing a 1-in-3 chance of a 45-kt increase in intensity over the 
next 36 hours.  Based on these model data, the NHC intensity 
forecast has been increased to 75 kt in 36 hours, just before the 
center of Debby is expected to reach the coast.  Weakening is 
anticipated after landfall, but Debby's intensity on days 3 through 
5 is highly uncertain and is dependent on whether the center moves 
over the Atlantic waters and for how long.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 24.4N  83.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 25.9N  84.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 27.8N  84.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 29.3N  84.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 30.3N  83.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 60H  06/1200Z 31.0N  82.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  07/0000Z 31.2N  81.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  08/0000Z 31.6N  80.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  09/0000Z 33.0N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND