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Hurricane Debby


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25 minutes ago, Normandy said:

I’m in the camp of “intensity forecasts are way underdone”. Can’t rule out a major at first landfall.  It’s way way ahead of schedule and deepening quickly already. Models have always suggested this will be deepening on approach, suggestive of a favorable environment.  I am interested in where the stall occurs.  

The stall slow movement occurs as it approaches the SE GA coast and just offshore.  There may be as much as 72 hours of SE fetch off the gulf stream into the coastal communities before Debby starts a slow but steady movement NW, N or NNE.  To be determined.

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34 minutes ago, marsman said:

I don't think I've ever seen a 90 degree turn on an NHC forecast map. Anyone?

 I looked over past tracks of TCs back to 1851. Of those that moved from the GOM inland over W FL N of Tampa through the panhandle, I couldn’t find even one that then moved offshore SE US followed by a curl back NW back into the SE coast like the last few Euro/GFS runs. The closest I could find is Easy of 1950, which could have done it had it first gone offshore FL before curling back:

IMG_0056.webp.60859c5df48f95a56db2d09638568efb.webp
 

 So, whereas climo doesn’t tell me a curl back NW into the SE coast a la GFS/Euro can’t happen, it does tell me to not be surprised if that ends up not happening and to almost expect it to not.

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4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I looked over past tracks of TCs back to 1851. Of those that moved from the GOM inland over W FL N of Tampa through the panhandle, I couldn’t find even one that then moved offshore SE US followed by a curl back NW back into the SE coast like the last few Euro/GFS runs. The closest I could find is Easy of 1950, which could have done it had it first gone offshore FL before curling back:

IMG_0056.webp.60859c5df48f95a56db2d09638568efb.webp
 

 So, whereas climo doesn’t tell me a curl back NW into the SE coast a la GFS/Euro can’t happen, it does tell me to not be surprised if that ends up not happening and to almost expect it to not.

I don't disagree with anything you said, but there is always a first.  Maybe that is part of the reason CHS is calling it a rare event.  GFS/EURO have had at least three 12 hour cycles in a row now with the same idea.  Of course they can be wrong, but ...

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It's probably going to be hard for Debby to get rid of this dry air once it moves back offshore, but the 18Z icon shows how it might be doable. Will depend partially on how long and how far offshore it sits over the Gulf Stream.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-southeast-09-22_01Z-20240803_map-glm_flash_noBar-10-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.24c1d349180a503ec6472d6f1f3b4a28.gif

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27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I looked over past tracks of TCs back to 1851. Of those that moved from the GOM inland over W FL N of Tampa through the panhandle, I couldn’t find even one that then moved offshore SE US followed by a curl back NW back into the SE coast like the last few Euro/GFS runs. The closest I could find is Easy of 1950, which could have done it had it first gone offshore FL before curling back:

IMG_0056.webp.60859c5df48f95a56db2d09638568efb.webp
 

 So, whereas climo doesn’t tell me a curl back NW into the SE coast a la GFS/Euro can’t happen, it does tell me to not be surprised if that ends up not happening and to almost expect it to not.

Really? Seems I've seen that a few times. But my memory is getting fuzzy...

Hurricanes crossing north Florida into the Atlantic, then making landfall again on the Carolina/Virginia coast? Happens a lot, right?

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

One thing is for sure, Debby will not suffer cool water temperatures.

GUFiXqiWAAARpQ8.png.c405a5d8387224a4704adb6dd398b22f.png

 

The Atlantic is no slouch either.  It's 84.4F along Hilton Head right now, so there is no lack of fuel anywhere in its path.

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23 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Really? Seems I've seen that a few times. But my memory is getting fuzzy...

Hurricanes crossing north Florida into the Atlantic, then making landfall again on the Carolina/Virginia coast? Happens a lot, right?

That’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying sharply turning around NW back into the SE coast like the 18Z GFS, earlier GFS/Euro, and many GFS/Euro ensemble members do. But you’re right about what you said.

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2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying sharply  turning around NW back into the SE coast. But you’re right about what you said.

Florence hit Wrightsville Beach NC and then turned southwest into SC Sept 14-15 2018 but it didn't loop back out to the coast

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1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Dam nice looking storm already. 

20242161200-20242162140-ABI-AL042024-GEO

 

A long way away in Pinellas County feeling the wind already, it appears to be a very large storm. With moon tides I wonder if the storm surges will be higher than expected.

Seems like a lot of rotation happening that could push up a little bit of the Gulf of Mexico into low areas.

 

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3 minutes ago, MaggyNoLia said:

Florence hit Wrightsville Beach NC and then turned southwest into SC Sept 14-15 2018 but it didn't loop back out to the coast

Thanks. Keep in mind that I’m only talking about TCs that earlier crossed NW FL.

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5 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

So…it’s got that look 

It is a pretty looking thing, this Debby.  It already is starting that buzzsaw look and pulling energy from afar.  Can't wait to see what this looks like after DMAX.

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Hell yeah, a NOAA plane just took off from Lakeland... that should be in the storm in no time. The AF plane from Biloxi should be there a little bit after. Hopefully they are fully fueled and can stay in for a while. Will be interesting to see how it strengthens from pass to pass. 

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4 hours ago, Prospero said:

My first storm was as a kid in 1968 on Charleston Air Force Base with Hurricane Gladys passing by.

All us kids were playing outside when our parents called us in. There was no Weather Channel or online Weather forums. Most people still had a black and white TV with rabbit era antennae. I think my dad was called to fly one of the fighter planes to another base and passed on the news a storm was pending.

Soon as it got dark, lawn furniture started to fly and the backyard became a lake very quickly once it started. An ancient very large oak tree came down which always makes me sad. But I was hooked forever on storms at 8 years old. ;)

Gladys came through Pinellas County FL where I live now too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gladys_(1968)

 

 

 

Hurricane Belle, only a Cat 1 before the eye passed over Massapequa after dark.  The National Guard ordered us to leave Nassau Shores, Eddie Harkin, work friend of my Dad, at my sisters wedding 20 years later with an oxygen tank, everyone at American Airlines smoked (lung cancer killed my Dad), lived in North Massapequa.  My first exposure to cable TV.  My dad wouldn't let me go out in the eye.  Lots of uprooted willow trees, the ones in the woods not cleared lived on lying on their sides.  I have another page and a half of this thread to read.  ECENS and GEFS are close for Florida landfall, the somewhat quicker Euro family would be less bad for freshwater flooding.

 

Euro ECENS (some GEFS support, but not as much, we are about a week away from the next where will the storm in the Caribbean go situation.  More on that in general Atlantic thread.

Debby_ECENS.png

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