Hurricane Debby

[Kevin Reilly]

Just now, cptcatz said:

I'm not sure why this is a weenie take.  The storm has a clear low level center with convection popping overhead, and will be traversing some of the hottest water in the world right now for the next 400 miles, along with what appears to be good atmospheric conditions.  This along with GFS showing a landfall pressure of 983, I think cat 2 is clearly on the table right now.  

100% agree with this and the warm waters remember Charlie and Ian DO NOT downplay this situation take it as a serious threat!

[wkd]

17 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Convection popping right over the low level center right now.  I think it's off to the races.  Wouldn't be surprised to see this pushing cat 2 at the Florida big bend landfall.

agree

[traindog71]

I remember going to the Binghamton area, vestal specifically, with my fire dept and several others from long Island after Irene.  What a rain flooding disaster then.... 
 
This will be far more wide spread kinda setup with many states affected potentially.

That was actually a result of Tropical Storm Lee. Which hit a couple weeks after Irene.


.

[wthrmn654]

Euro kinda looks more like what the gfs been saying,  for a while where it goes off the coast again by Virginia and hits the northeast stronger again with a glancing hit.. but ton of rain

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, traindog71 said:

That was actually a result of Tropical Storm Lee. Which hit a couple weeks after Irene.


.

Oh your right,  non the less there was a ton of water that year lol

[Prospero]

The circulation is becoming much more evident:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-truecolor-48-1-100-6&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Wind field still looks a little elongated to me, but it’s clearly on an organizing trend imo. Data suggests this should be Debby at 5pm. 

[purduewx80]

You can see the implied impacts of downsloping off Cuba’s mountains, with dry air being maintained into northern parts of the circulation. Once that convection on the southern end builds around, we should see it intensify at a pretty good clip. 18Z SHIPS upped the prob of 25KT/24hours to 33% and 65 KT prior to landfall at 25%.

 

[olafminesaw]

Getting more and more symmetrical. Rare to see a TD with such a clear CoC

[Eskimo Joe]

Based off satellite, it appears that TD 5 is starting to organize more. Lots of towers going up.

[Prospero]

Another band is inching this way from the south. I've finished the work I need to do in order to have 15 minutes or so to close the last shutters in the unlikely event I will need to. But Charlie caught so many off guard and taught everybody on the Central West Coast of Florida so many lessons about being casual when any kind of storm passes by.

Being a season since I've hung out here and only popping in to read now and then, I am wondering when a Banter and/or Conditions forum might appear. I am not a Met, just a passionate Enthusiast who is getting excited.

Right now that feeling of a broad circulation is very familiar to we who live on the Gulf Coast is invigorating. It's like we can feel a storm approaching. I can hear the trees and ground beneath me cheering for the seasonal rain we need from these storms. Yay!

 

[yoda]

Debby is here

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DEBBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 83.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Florida Gulf coast
from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida coast west
of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, and for the Florida coast
east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect west of the Aucilla River to
Indian Pass.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida coast west
of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee
River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry
Tortugas
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of the Suwannee
River to East Cape Sable

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* The Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last 
advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over 
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective 
banding to the north and south of the central region.  A 
combination of earlier scatterometer data, surface observations in 
the Florida Keys, and ship reports in the Straits of Florida shows 
an area of 30-35 kt winds located about 120 n mi from the center in 
the eastern semicircle.  Based on this information, Tropical 
Depression Four is upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby.

The initial motion is now northwest or 310/13 kt. A large mid- to 
upper-level trough over the central United States is creating a 
break in the subtropical ridge, and Debby is expected to turn 
northward into this break in about 24 h.  This should be followed 
by a gradual turn toward the northeast at a slower forward speed 
through 60 h.  This motion should bring the center near or over the 
northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h.  After landfall, weakening 
steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it 
moves northeastward or eastward over parts of northern Florida and 
Georgia.  The uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly 
after 60 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of the U.S. 
trough.  The latest GFS and ECMWF models show a slow eastward 
motion into the Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the north or 
northwest that brings the center back inland. On the other hand, 
the Canadian model is still forecasting Debby to move slowly 
northeastward across the southeastern states and does not bring it 
over the Atlantic.  This portion of the new forecast track 
continues to show a slow motion and leans toward the GFS/ECMWF 
solutions.

Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico 
with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear.  
Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h, then 
proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized 
inner core.  The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity 
of 65 kt at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement 
with the HWRF model. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the 
system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the 
intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to the possibility 
of land interaction and how much interaction will occur with the 
aforementioned mid-latitude trough.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban 
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the 
Southeast this weekend through Thursday. Significant river flooding 
is also expected.

2.  Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of 
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, 
with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm 
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the 
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the 
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation 
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian 
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to 
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are 
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the 
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of 
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor 
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will 
likely be required tonight or on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 23.9N  83.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 25.3N  84.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 27.2N  84.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 28.9N  84.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 30.2N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 60H  06/0600Z 31.0N  83.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/1800Z 31.3N  82.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/1800Z 31.5N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  08/1800Z 33.0N  80.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[yoda]

 

[marsman]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

 

I don't think I've ever seen a 90 degree turn on an NHC forecast map. Anyone?

[cptcatz]

4 minutes ago, marsman said:

I don't think I've ever seen a 90 degree turn on an NHC forecast map. Anyone?

Jeanne had some gnarly turns 

[Prospero]

4 minutes ago, marsman said:

I don't think I've ever seen a 90 degree turn on an NHC forecast map. Anyone?

I've seen plenty of hard right turns from storms. LOL

 

[NotSureWeather]

I really get the feeling intensity forecasts are way underdone

[Amped]

8 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

I really get the feeling intensity forecasts are way underdone

Kind of a broad circulation and there will be some shear in the northern Gulf.  It's hitting a pretty storm surge prone area though. Luckily not very populated.

[Windspeed]

TS Debby is now officially forecast to become a hurricane by landfall in NW Florida / Big Bend.

[cptcatz]

9 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

I really get the feeling intensity forecasts are way underdone

Agreed. This just has the look of a storm about to take off. Lots of hot towers going up right now. 

[Normandy]

I’m in the camp of “intensity forecasts are way underdone”. Can’t rule out a major at first landfall.  It’s way way ahead of schedule and deepening quickly already. Models have always suggested this will be deepening on approach, suggestive of a favorable environment.  I am interested in where the stall occurs.  

[Kevin Reilly]

3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Agreed. This just has the look of a storm about to take off. Lots of hot towers going up right now. 

I’ve been saying kind of worried all things seem system go over 87-93 degree waters.  I keep having Charlie 2004 and Ian 2023 in the back of my mind.  Let’s see where we are in 5 to 6 hours. 

[Jebman]

Hopefully NOT another Ian.

[hlcater]

Starting to wonder if this starts building an inner core sooner rather than later. The surface circulation is already well defined and appears to be becoming stacked under the sprawling mid-level circulation. This process seems to be complicated only by dry entrainment off of Cuba’s higher terrain, with deep convection widespread in all 4 quadrants otherwise. I’m not seeing much reason why a quicker pace of intensification shouldn’t ensue once that gets mixed out, especially if convection continues to develop over the center.

[beanskip]

Is the Tropical Tidbits recon page broken? Trying to figure out why no missions scheduled?

[Amped]

31 minutes ago, marsman said:

I don't think I've ever seen a 90 degree turn on an NHC forecast map. Anyone?

Hurricane Ian made a turn into the SC coast but it wasn't as sharp. I suspect this turn is being overdone by models and it ends up over E NC day 5.

[taylorsweather]

Hydrology disco out of CHS:

 

.HYDROLOGY...
While there are still uncertainties regarding the track,
timing, and strength of Debby, there is increasing confidence
that the system will produce a rare and uncommon rainfall and
flooding event across southeast GA and southeast SC. The setup
is quite ideal for a prolonged widespread intense rainfall event
with precipitable water values surging to 2.5 inches or greater
and a near stationary or slowly meandering system that is
expected to be strengthening while in close proximity to the
GA/SC coast. Sunday rainfall will mostly (if not completely) be
convectively driven and independent of the circulation envelope
around Debby. We currently expect the outer bands of the system
to begin spreading into southeast GA as soon as Sunday night and
definitely into Monday. From there, the heavy rainfall threat
will persist until the system exits the area, which might not be
until Friday. Broadly speaking, rainfall totals are expected to
be in the 6-12 inch range across all of southeast GA/SC, with
8-12 inches along the coastal corridor. Locally higher amounts
of up to 18 inches are expected. If these rainfall amounts come
to fruition, we can expect to see widespread considerable flash
flooding across the area, especially along the coastal corridor
with the threat being heightened around the metro areas of
Savannah, Beaufort/Hilton Head, and Charleston. With these
rainfall totals, the expected impacts will likely include
flooded homes and structures, damages to roadways including
washouts, and uncommon flooding along smaller creeks and
streams. Rainfall will likely come in bands with periods of very
intense rainfall followed by periods of light rain or even no
rain at times. Unfortunately, it is still too early to
highlight specific time periods of when the most intense
rainfall could occur. Timing details, as well as adjustments to
the rainfall totals, can be expected in subsequent forecast
updates.

[Kevin Reilly]

9 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Starting to wonder if this starts building an inner core sooner rather than later. The surface circulation is already well defined and appears to be becoming stacked under the sprawling mid-level circulation. This process seems to be complicated only by dry entrainment off of Cuba’s higher terrain, with deep convection widespread in all 4 quadrants otherwise. I’m not seeing much reason why a quicker pace of intensification shouldn’t ensue once that gets mixed out, especially if convection continues to develop over the center.

Looking at Satellites Debby is very symmetrical.  Almost if you use your imagination it’s ready to pull everything to the center.

[Prospero]

5 minutes ago, Amped said:

Hurricane Ian made a turn into the SC coast but it wasn't as sharp. I suspect this turn is being overdone by models and it ends up over E NC day 5.

ChatGPT (AI):

There have been several notable hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico that made a "hard right turn," meaning they changed direction sharply, usually turning toward the northeast or east after moving westward or northward. Here are a few examples:

1. Hurricane Charley (2004)

• Path: Charley moved northwest across the Caribbean and then turned sharply to the right as it entered the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall in southwest Florida near Punta Gorda as a Category 4 hurricane. This sharp turn caught some forecasters and residents off guard as the hurricane had been predicted to take a more westerly track.

2. Hurricane Elena (1985)

• Path: Elena exhibited a very unusual path. It initially moved northwest in the Gulf of Mexico, then stalled and made a sharp right turn toward the east, heading toward the Florida Panhandle. It made landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi, after meandering in the Gulf and threatening multiple states.

3. Hurricane Michael (2018)

• Path: Michael moved northward through the Gulf of Mexico and then made a hard right turn toward the northeast before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Mexico Beach as a devastating Category 5 hurricane.

4. Hurricane Ivan (2004)

• Path: After moving northwest across the Gulf of Mexico, Ivan made a hard right turn toward the northeast, making landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama. It then continued inland before looping back into the Atlantic, turning into a subtropical storm, and eventually curving back across Florida.

5. Hurricane Opal (1995)

• Path: Opal moved northwest across the Gulf before making a sharp right turn toward the northeast. It intensified rapidly just before landfall and struck near Pensacola, Florida, as a Category 3 hurricane.

These examples illustrate how unpredictable hurricane paths can be, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico where weather patterns can lead to sudden changes in direction.