Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Recon has impressive winds for such a trainwreck of a system. Facepalm for people apparently disappointed that Debby won't make a run at Cat 3 and drop 10 feet of rain in 2 days. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 2 hours ago, eyewall said: I am so far not impressed with what I am seeing in terms of rain bands out there. I am guessing they will reduce rain totals as the day goes on. I believe that the weather service was counting on a huge fetch off of the Atlantic to account for the heavy rain training. We received a quick quarter inch yesterday and a trace this morning. Sun just came out in Kville. Told Mrs this morning my guess would be two inches tops for the triad unless something off of the ocean materializes. Weather service is still holding to their guns of 4-6 for the triad so guess we'll see. Raleigh's briefing image displays Debby with the center appearing to be filled in. That's not what the radar is currently showing. As I said, we'll see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 5 minutes ago, KChuck said: I believe that the weather service was counting on a huge fetch off of the Atlantic to account for the heavy rain training. We received a quick quarter inch yesterday and a trace this morning. Sun just came out in Kville. Told Mrs this morning my guess would be two inches tops for the triad unless something off of the ocean materializes. Weather service is still holding to their guns of 4-6 for the triad so guess we'll see. Raleigh's briefing image displays Debby with the center appearing to be filled in. That's not what the radar is currently showing. As I said, we'll see. Models have been consistently showing periods of heavy rain for much of well inland NC starting late tonight S areas going through tomorrow more areas and lingering into tomorrow night N areas. Meanwhile, I’ve been getting some moderate rain from showers rotating on the backside, well away from the center, with more to come this afternoon. So, will add some more to the 10.3” total that I had already received at last check. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Been chilly with sky’s clearing here in obx. First part of the week felt much more tropical and got super heavy rain. Been hoping this thing would bust and so far it’s feeling good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Satellite estimates are up to 53knts. Up to the last recording which was... 1945utc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Guessing landfall 9-10ish pm NHC now forecasting Debby to be subtropical when it gets to NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Guessing landfall 9-10ish pm NHC now forecasting Debby to be subtropical when it gets to NCIt has a look and feel of being subtropical right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Convection is blowing up over land. If that somehow stays there more than a few hours, that will be a problem. WPC analyzed cold front may be too far inland, but I'd guess prefrontal trough. I can't really see it in the SPC RAP analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 43 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Convection is blowing up over land. If that somehow stays there more than a few hours, that will be a problem. WPC analyzed cold front may be too far inland, but I'd guess prefrontal trough. I can't really see it in the SPC RAP analysis. Down in Richmond Hill (SW of Savannah), a friend of mine said she had the heaviest rain of the entire storm with that orange band that came across just in the last hour! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 5 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Was this the event that did a 1,000 year carve out of river beds? Same bday as myself I see.. Happy early birthday Friday ! Always was fascinated with Camille growing up nearby, always looked for info and writings on the event... A few interesting facts from that night ... Rainfall is believed to have been 35 inches or more in spots in about 5 hours.. Davis Creek , a normal little creek was measured by geologists as potentially reaching 51 feet in one spot coming down a hollow.. Some people are still missing and some were found but never identified.. The weather bureau at the time said it was likely the maximum amount of rain that could fall in that amount of time in this part of the world.. The mighty James River coming up from Lynchburg actually stopped or backed up for awhile ... As the volume and power of water coming out of Nelson's smaller rivers was overwhelming the slower moving James for awhile that morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Wilmington, NC, and areas just inland have been getting slammed nonstop through the evening. I'd expect flash flood emergencies are underway. 2"/hr rates are ongoing, and the band pivot is taking forever. It's not a good situation developing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7 Author Share Posted August 7 6 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Wilmington, NC, and areas just inland have been getting slammed nonstop through the evenjng. I'd expect flash flood emergencies are underway. 2"/hr rates are ongoing, and the band pivot is taking forever. It's not a good situation developing. That’s the kind of band that can drop 20” with enough time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s the kind of band that can drop 20” with enough time. They’ve only had a little over 3 inches https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KILM.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 They’ve only had a little over 3 inches https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KILM.htmlLast hour radar indicated 2-3" and pushing 5-6" last three. I'm not sure how slow to update that site data is currently you posted. It's either incorrect, delayed, or radar is a temporary simulation experiment. I'll take one of the first two options. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Wilmington is getting firehosed by training efficient tropical rains. Circulation is spinning over the coast and plentiful Atlantic moisture will slam into that entire region probably into the night. That trough is no damn good and Debby won't get picked up. This is NOT a very good situation. Deb will spin like a top and there's no shortage of moisture from that ocean. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 6 minutes ago, Jebman said: Wilmington is getting firehosed by training efficient tropical rains. Circulation is spinning over the coast and plentiful Atlantic moisture will slam into that entire region probably into the night. That trough is no damn good and Debby won't get picked up. This is NOT a very good situation. Deb will spin like a top and there's no shortage of moisture from that ocean. Debby is going to have lunch in Pennsylvania Friday, I think the trough will pick her up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 30 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: They’ve only had a little over 3 inches https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KILM.html 21 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 30 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: They’ve only had a little over 3 inches https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KILM.html Last hour radar indicated 2-3" and pushing 5-6" last three. I'm not sure how slow to update that site data is currently you posted. It's either incorrect, delayed, or radar is a temporary simulation experiment. I'll take one of the first two options. I'm using RadarScope but I see three hour estimates in that range and totals between 7-10” overall just west of the city. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 I'm using RadarScope but I see three hour estimates in that range and totals between 7-10” overall just west of the city.This feed that is evolving is most concerning. Multiple mesoscales keep that feed ongoing through tonight and much of the day tomorrow, even after Debby is tracking back to the NW and towards the interior SC-NC border. It does not appear that NC is going to escape high hourly rates and localized destructive totals. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 That circulation southeast of Debby a concern at all? It’s grown a decent amount the past few hours and almost seems like it’s tugging at Debby. Not saying Fujiwara but it kinda looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 17 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: That circulation southeast of Debby a concern at all? It’s grown a decent amount the past few hours and almost seems like it’s tugging at Debby. Not saying Fujiwara but it kinda looks like it. Long loop radar doesn’t show a secondary circulation. There’s deep convection SE of the center, but this shouldn’t influence the overall track of Debby. Matters for rainfall though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Long loop radar doesn’t show a secondary circulation. There’s deep convection SE of the center, but this shouldn’t influence the overall track of Debby. Matters for rainfall though. No I mean the circulation out in the Atlantic that’s looking better by the minute 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 No I mean the circulation out in the Atlantic that’s looking better by the minuteThat is a mid-to-upper level low you are seeing. It is not a tropical surface low. Though it is aiding in ventilating outflow off of Debby, it's not directly influencing the steering layer where Debby is positioned. Low and mid-level flow will bring Debby inland and on up the ECONUS interior the next few days. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 13 minutes ago, Windspeed said: That is a mid-to-upper level low you are seeing. It is not a tropical surface low. Though it is aiding in ventilating outflow off of Debby, it's not directly influencing the steering layer where Debby is positioned. Low and mid-level flow will bring Debby inland and on up the ECONUS interior the next few days. I wasn’t even thinking of looking out there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 I’ve been concerned about the Fayetteville/Ft Liberty area, especially for very heavy rain, as I have family there. Check out these 11PM conditions FORT LIBERTY HVY RAIN 77 75 94 NE16G22 29.64F VSB 1 FAYETTEVILLE RAIN 77 74 90 NE31G52 29.61F FOG Gusts to 52 at Fayetteville? Wow! Look out power outages! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 That's a nice slug of efficient tropical rain! It just keeps getting larger and hammering the same communities with steady efficient heavy tropical rain! Deb is just laggin along at only 3 mph. Rain tallies will pile up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 First FFE of Debby in the Carolinas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BULLS BAY SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 79.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 ...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BULLS BAY SOUTH CAROLINA... BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BULLS BAY SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 79.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 557 FXUS62 KRAH 080549 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 150 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front across the mid-Atlantic will linger through Thursday. The center of Tropical Storm Debby will move northwest and onto the South Carolina coast this evening and then drift northward across the central Carolinas on Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 923 PM Wednesday... * More widespread rain which will be heavy at times will spread into central NC tonight beginning a 12 to 18 hour period of the heaviest rain and greatest flash flood risk. Negligible changes with the evening update. The center of Debby is currently located just offshore near Charleston, SC. Water vapor imagery continues to depict moistening around the center of the circulation. As such, a persistent band of heavier rainfall (mostly 1.5 to 2.5 in/hr rates) has developed just to the southeast of Sampson county. CAMs continue to depict this heavier band expanding north-northwest over the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain the next several hours, followed by up into the Triangle by daybreak. Consequently, these areas have the best chance to experience flash flooding overnight as strong 925 to 850 mb moisture transport provides a continuous feed of >2.5 inches of PWAT. The other concern as we continue into the overnight period is the chance for quick spin-up tornadoes. Thus far this evening, rotating cells have largely remained to our south (although a few have recently developed near southern Sampson county). Low-level SRH of ~150 m2/s2 remains anchored over the southern Coastal Plain. This moderately-strong low-level kinematic field will expand further northwest overnight. However, weak lapse rates and overall instability will promote only occasional weak circulations through Thursday morning. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=RAH&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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