NorthHillsWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Unless the GFS were to verify. Only gives ~3 inches at RDU. Im also dubious this is still a TS I’ve had more than half that in the first 40 minutes of the storm. I’d toss those island GFS runs, it’s already coming back into alignment with other models at 12z. Picked up 1.55” in 40 minutes from the first band. We’ll see what the meat of this thing brings here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’ve had more than half that in the first 40 minutes of the storm. I’d toss those island GFS runs, it’s already coming back into alignment with other models at 12z. Picked up 1.55” in 40 minutes from the first band. We’ll see what the meat of this thing brings here I’ll toss QPF but it’s had about 15 runs now with a second landfall near SAV/Hilton Head. Can’t discount our 2nd best model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I’ll toss QPF but it’s had about 15 runs now with a second landfall near SAV/Hilton Head. Can’t discount our 2nd best model. It's been a bit of a trend in that direction, but hard to buy into the GFS when it's such an outlier from all other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 52 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I’ll toss QPF but it’s had about 15 runs now with a second landfall near SAV/Hilton Head. Can’t discount our 2nd best model. Yep, 14 runs to be exact through the 12Z. But the 12Z is slightly further N and the 6Z and even moreso the 12Z GEFS mean is further N than the operational. Also, fwiw being that it’s an inferior model, the 12Z JMA 72 adjusted back N with it in VA vs yesterday’s 12Z JMA 96 in E C GA. So, as of now the GFS will likely end up wrong, which history all along strongly suggested. 12Z UKMET: landfall Georgetown ~8AM Thu 8/8 and then heads N into VA (~50 miles E of 0Z) followed by NE turn to NE US though not as strong there as 0Z had 12Z Euro: landfall just S of Georgetown ~3AM Thu followed by NNW move into WC NC and then NE move into interior NE US, a little W of UKMET 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Morning WPC 5 day QPF doesn't suggest much orographic enhancement, but the E halves of the Carolinas are >10 inches with some >15 inch areas. I assume that is a computer created consensus of models, with forecasters adjusting which models have more and less, or no weight. Consensus seems the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 6 Author Share Posted August 6 I said yesterday I was going to be looking at structure, convection, and organization as it moved toward the shoreline. After starting the day nearly fully hollowed out by dry air and the effects of the slow trek over land. The last few hours have seen some modest organization as the center moves over Savannah and offshore. You can see how banding is trying to organize around the western side, though dry air is still present—now in the southern/southeastern side. Perhaps importantly later on, the center itself is well defined with shallow convection generally wrapped around. To be clear, there is a lot of work to do before this can really reintensify at a meaningful pace, but this is what I’m watching as the center crawls offshore. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 12z Euro speeds this up a good bit. By Friday morning it has it over Roanoke, VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: 12z Euro speeds this up a good bit. By Friday morning it has it over Roanoke, VA That's good but wish it would start speeding up Thursday instead. Most of the rain will be dumped by Friday morning. The previous 00Z run was awfully slow. This is more similar to yesterday's 12Z run (a tad faster) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 25 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: That's good but wish it would start speeding up Thursday instead. Most of the rain will be dumped by Friday morning. The previous 00Z run was awfully slow. This is more similar to yesterday's 12Z run (a tad faster) Only has ~4 inches for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 I feel like it is almost drifting northward now ever so slightly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 I estimate that I’m at 8.5” so far from Debby (over last ~30 hours) with only ~1/2” since 2AM allowing good progress on drainage. If we were to not get too much more from this point forward (where I’m leaning now), I’d be near the low end of the range of predictions, which had a pretty good amount for today and tomorrow. As of last night I had guessed at least another 4” between then and Thursday. Still an 8.5” rain is enough to qualify as a very big rain event due to its rarity and likely is the largest since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. Also, some nearby areas (Effingham and Jasper counties) got 10-11” per CoCoRaHS. The storm is currently centered just E of here along the coast about to be offshore. Winds and rain are very light near the storm center. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: 12z Euro speeds this up a good bit. By Friday morning it has it over Roanoke, VA Hope you are right. My son is getting married (hopefully outside) on Saturday at 4:30 pm in Yadkinville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 43 minutes ago, eyewall said: I feel like it is almost drifting northward now ever so slightly. Sure looks like it. Almost like it’s riding up the beach to Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 I am looking at the radar basically just light rain showers rotating around the center the heavy rain threat is far away from the center looks to me that Charleston and Savannah should be fine honestly. I looked at the web cam in Hilton Head there are people on the beach and the sun is even out. Charleston and Savannah are dry too with dry gounds. I will be checking into Charleston, SC on August 11th should be fine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 They just showed Myrtle Beach on the news and the sun was out and people were sunbathing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: They just showed Myrtle Beach on the news and the sun was out and people were sunbathing Volleyball too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Honestly, the media is insufferable during these types of deals. If you were to be unaware and tuned in, you’d think Katrina was about to descend. The flags aren’t even moving. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: Honestly, the media is insufferable during these types of deals. If you were to be unaware and tuned in, you’d think Katrina was about to descend. The flags aren’t even moving. Crazy idea… don’t watch. Youve posted non stop about how little rain you’ll get in RDU. talk about insufferable. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Crazy idea… don’t watch. Youve posted non stop about how little rain you’ll get in RDU. talk about insufferable. You’re literally in Boulder, CO. No dog in the fight. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: You’re literally in Boulder, CO. No dog in the fight. Nope… won’t let me change my name. Also doesn’t change the fact that your posts are obnoxious and repetitive. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 29 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Honestly, the media is insufferable during these types of deals. If you were to be unaware and tuned in, you’d think Katrina was about to descend. The flags aren’t even moving. "The flags aren't even moving", it's almost like the main hazard that has been advertised this entire storm is rain and flooding lol 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 I like how detailed NWS Charleston is getting in their warnings. Very specific details for certain rivers and such * At 425 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated light to moderate rain extending across much of the Charleston, Berkeley, Dorchester and Beaufort Counties. As much as 6 to 13 inches of rain has fallen so far and additional 1 to 2 inches could fall through this evening. Flash flooding is occurring in parts of West Ashley, Downtown Charleston and the Oakbrook area in southern Dorchester County. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, Summerville, Goose Creek, Hanahan, Walterboro, Saint George, Edisto Beach, Givhans Ferry State Park and Ladson. Water levels on Saw Mill Branch continue to rise. Dorchester County Emergency Management is strongly encouraging residents in low-lying or flood-prone areas to evacuate to a shelter. Water levels along Ireland Creek at Walterboro stopped rising, however water could still approach or flood some businesses along Ivanhoe Road. Heed any evacuation advice from local officials. Flash flooding is likely ongoing along Church Creek in West Ashley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Brandon's got a vortex on the ground in N Myrtle Beach: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRKjp8Vzoow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 2 minutes ago, marsman said: Brandon's got a vortex on the ground in N Myrtle Beach: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRKjp8Vzoow That looks prettt impressive. Rain also looks like it'll train over that general area for the next few hours, with impressive rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 I am a bit relieved so far as we don't seem to be seeing Allison or Harvey type flooding, but still a threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Here is Jacksonville, I have no clue what to expect tomorrow. I've seen some crazy numbers being thrown around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Honestly, the media is insufferable during these types of deals. If you were to be unaware and tuned in, you’d think Katrina was about to descend. The flags aren’t even moving. We had relatives calling us from around the country asking if we were going to stay for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 As the Debby center moved to the SE offshore finally putting us on the backside, winds picked up and steady mainly moderate rains resumed about 1.5 hours ago after little rain since late last night. I had been at ~8.5” for the storm before this. We’ll see how much gets added from this and more to come tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Storm report… 5 miles west of ILM (Leland) Peak wind since midnight has been 14 mph from the NE. Rain total so far 1.13 inches of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 29 minutes ago, senc30 said: Here is Jacksonville, I have no clue what to expect tomorrow. I've seen some crazy numbers being thrown around. WRAL was asking shop keepers in Wrightsville why they hadn’t boarded up windows and if they were going to evacuate. I think it’s partly hype = $, and partly these kid reporters are from like Iowa and have no clue. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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