NotSureWeather Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 At some point do we acknowledge that this storm has been east of every forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 There’s a difference in making it out to shelf water and Gulf Stream 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: There’s a difference in making it out to shelf water and Gulf Stream Not a significant difference, at least applicable to this scenario. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 5.19 inches so far here in Pooler, and two tornado warnings Back yard is flooding, starting to get nervous about my shop (it's a little lower than the house)... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 9 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Not a significant difference, at least applicable to this scenario. Watch Levi’s video from today where he details the difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5 Author Share Posted August 5 1 minute ago, gtg947h said: 5.19 inches so far here in Pooler, and two tornado warnings Back yard is flooding, starting to get nervous about my shop (it's a little lower than the house)... Good luck there too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 The tropical cyclone should continue to weaken while it moves over land for the next day or so. By late Tuesday, assuming the center of the system moves back over water, some re-intensification is forecast. The NHC forecast continues to show only modest restrengthening due to the uncertainties, although this may be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 21 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Watch Levi’s video from today where he details the difference Ok, I can delete my coast. Missed this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Nasty firehose getting setup in the Charleston Metro. Unfortunately, likely the start of catastrophic flooding reminiscent of Joaquin 2015, etc. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 6 Author Share Posted August 6 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Circulation is widening out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Back over the Atlantic 16 hours early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Oh my, Debby is gonna get offshore way earlier than was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 6 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: Oh my, Debby is gonna get offshore way earlier than was expected. Waaaay earlier and way further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Just now, NotSureWeather said: Waaaay earlier and way further south. What does that mean for down the road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Just now, senc30 said: What does that mean for down the road? Stronger and more east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 1 minute ago, senc30 said: What does that mean for down the road? You can also see convection has been blowing up in the NE quadrant for awhile now. The moisture has basically wrapped around just in time and I think it might of helped pull the system more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Have family on Vaca in OBX what’s everyone thinking.??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 17 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Waaaay earlier and way further south. Think you’re letting radar hallucinations conflate fixed position. It’s currently just south of Waycross, GA, pretty close to where it’s supposed to be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 6 Author Share Posted August 6 Perhaps it’s a touch faster and east—I don’t have an overlay, but the center is still inland looking at the radar loop. The circle is where I’d put it. Radar velocities remain between 40-50mph so the weakening trend has continued, but like I said earlier the structure is what matters. It has clearly degraded, perhaps at a slightly accelerated pace, the last few hours. How much this all matters remains to be seen. I’ll be looking for whether convection begins to fire closer to the center as it approaches the coast, which will take time. SSTs are warm but we have to see if the center can get over the Gulf Stream and for any meaningful amount of time. Shear doesn’t look too bad in the Atlantic the next few days looking at current analysis and SHIPS, so time and proximity to land are the biggest inhibitors determining whether this remains a TS or makes a run at hurricane intensity again. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 30 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Stronger and more east Well perhaps Hilton Head gets 15 inches instead of 30 inches. That's a relief. Perhaps Deb gets picked up and ends up faster than forecast sparing the Southeast from historic floods. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 82.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Now that Debby is approaching her stall era, even 10 miles of difference east could change her eventual fate. If the center can fully park itself offshore than I think it can regain hurricane strength, maybe become even stronger than before FL landfall. Otherwise, I expect we will continue to see Debby spin down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 forward speed increased by 1 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 44 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Have family on Vaca in OBX what’s everyone thinking.??? Depends. North of Oregon Inlet? Fine. South of it, woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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