olafminesaw Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is going to get ugly. Multi-day high risk issued now. The SC coast is under a moderate risk of high risk for 4 straight days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 The slow jog across land is grinding her up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: The slow jog across land is grinding her up There's also a fairly significant amount of shear evident on satellite if you watch the West side of the storm. Should be a shell of it's former self once it reaches the Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 18z runs really tightened up with a landfall near CHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 What in tarnation is this mess?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: What in tarnation is this mess?! Good lord. It doesn't move for 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 9 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: 18z runs really tightened up with a landfall near CHS The majority cluster moves the storm much further inland/West than most globals, matches close to the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Notable that all of them keep her as barely a TS at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Notable that all of them keep her as barely a TS at landfall Doesnt really get far enough out over the water to re-strengthen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Has anyone seen this? https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/crime/3111029/hurrican-debby-blows-million-dollars-cocaine-florida-beach/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Not sure it will be a TS by the 8pm update tonight. The land is killing it. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5 Author Share Posted August 5 NHC accounts for decay over land. Rapid weakening was expected, but the forecast still gets this to the Atlantic where some intensification remains likely. The NHC forecast gets it far enough out into the Atlantic to allow for it imo. That said, this is emphatically a rain/water event. I look less at the surface wind right now and more the structural decay. For now, the structure looks as expected on radar and satellite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Running a fair bit east of forecast. May get over water sooner if this continues Yesterday's cone vs today's showing the east shift and forward motion being sped up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Idk. Yesterday NHC forecast it being in GA by 5, yet it’s still in FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 18z GFS landfall near SAV/Hilton Head edit: then drives it back to Valdosta. At some point we have to acknowledge it may be onto something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 What a mess here! There had been a tornado warning that expired an hour ago. Much of the yard and entire patio is covered with standing water. Street flooded. Now this and there’s a very long ways to go before the on and off heavy rain ends. And the strong winds haven’t even got here yet though they’re now picking up. Also Tornado watch extended til 1AM:THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... BULLOCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EVANS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LONG COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... TATTNALL COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1130 PM EDT. * AT 532 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETWEEN 2.5 AND 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... HINESVILLE, SAVANNAH, POOLER, BLUFFTON, RICHMOND HILL, REIDSVILLE, GLENNVILLE, TYBEE ISLAND, CLAXTON, PEMBROKE AND DARIEN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 That 18z GFS op run is one for the ages. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Here is the 18z GFS run in all its glory for Debby: 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 11 minutes ago, eyewall said: That 18z GFS op run is one for the ages. It's still rotting down south while the other models are faster sending it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's still rotting down south while the other models are faster sending it up the coast. Dies waiting for a flight out at Atlanta Hartsfield 5 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 At this point, it doesn't matter "too" much where the center of the storm tracks over the next few days. The effects will largely be the same... gusty winds in heavy bands and lots and lots of rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Just now, PackGrad05 said: At this point, it doesn't matter "too" much where the center of the storm tracks over the next few days. The effects will largely be the same... gusty winds in heavy bands and lots and lots of rain. For RDU it matters to the tune of about 6 inches 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: For RDU it matters to the tune of about 6 inches RDU will see heavy rain and localized flooding no matter what, unless it follows the GFS route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Just now, PackGrad05 said: At this point, it doesn't matter "too" much where the center of the storm tracks over the next few days. The effects will largely be the same... gusty winds in heavy bands and lots and lots of rain. Not really true. If the center gets out into the Atlantic it will strengthen some potentially. Over land it will degrade and end up more west, most likely. Mostly just watching how east it makes it before heading north or west if the GFS somehow scores the upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Gotta say for MBY Debbie had notably prolific banding and rainfall rates compared to recent tropical systems. TPA officially ended up close to 7”. We were under training for long stretches. Would add a few inches for our total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: RDU will see heavy rain and localized flooding no matter what, unless it follows the GFS route. That’s exactly the difference I’m noting. GFS is just as plausible as other outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 With the amount of time it has stayed in the general area compared to what was forecast, I wonder if it ever makes it back out to the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5 Author Share Posted August 5 33 minutes ago, GaWx said: What a mess here! There had been a tornado warning that expired an hour ago. Much of the yard and entire patio is covered with standing water. Street flooded. Now this and there’s a very long ways to go before the on and off heavy rain ends. And the strong winds haven’t even got here yet though they’re now picking up. Also Tornado watch extended til 1AM:THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... BULLOCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EVANS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LONG COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... TATTNALL COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1130 PM EDT. * AT 532 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETWEEN 2.5 AND 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... HINESVILLE, SAVANNAH, POOLER, BLUFFTON, RICHMOND HILL, REIDSVILLE, GLENNVILLE, TYBEE ISLAND, CLAXTON, PEMBROKE AND DARIEN. Stay safe there. Hope your property ends up fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 5 minutes ago, senc30 said: With the amount of time it has stayed in the general area compared to what was forecast, I wonder if it ever makes it back out to the Atlantic. It's moved almost due east since the 5 PM update. Its probably about 50 miles from the coast at this point. Its close enough already to starting pulling off the ocean. You can see bands popping up to the northeast, in the last few frames. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Think it's gonna make it over water just in time. Also looks like it did the whole tuck move as it wrapped moisture around. Which looks like that maybe contributed to the pretty significant jog east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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