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Hurricane Debby


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12Z Euro: LF 50 miles SW of 0Z Euro or 15 miles SW of Myrtle Beach then moving NNW. This is also 100 miles N of the 12Z UKMET hour 96.

 Then to Florence followed by Fayetteville as it weakens.

 Extremely heavy rain CHS to MYR.

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4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

In my opinion this is organizing extremely quickly. Look at banding outside of the core. It’s setting itself up for rapid intensification. I’m actually impressed with how quickly this has come together since this time yesterday. Every time I look at satellite or radar it looks like a more mature system. I think cat 2 is attainable 

The banding does look good. I’d just like to see more wrapping around the center. I do think this has a good shot at reaching a two before landfall as well and as folks should remember from Beryl, rapidly intensifying at landfall is nothing to scoff at. 

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

It seems like for the entire time that I've been watching weather, no tropical system has ever brought more than about 30-40 mph wind to Tampa. And this morning, it is 30 something mph gusts at St. Petersburg.

I think you have my first Weenie response. LOL

No offense, but I've shared some. Now a gust of 71 from a good weather station is recorded.

BTW, I recommend SailFlow for weather nerds like me on the coast. I pay for Pro and I don't expect that offers me the rights to clip and share screenshots. ;)

image.thumb.png.979d0c686631ba8fca24d8e6245eac46.png

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12Z Euro ens: only ~25% curve back NW CHS south (similar to 0Z) vs ~75% doing that on the 12Z GEFS.
Compared to recent Euro ens going NW CHS S: ~33% did on 0Z and ~75% did on yesterday’s 12Z

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38 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I think you have my first Weenie response. LOL

No offense, but I've shared some. Now a gust of 71 from a good weather station is recorded.

BTW, I recommend SailFlow for weather nerds like me on the coast. I pay for Pro and I don't expect that offers me the rights to clip and share screenshots. ;)

image.thumb.png.979d0c686631ba8fca24d8e6245eac46.png

I bring it up because once every couple of years, Tampa is in the cone of uncertainty, or whatever you might call it. The storm systems have made landfall at various places. No storm has caused a large storm surge at Tampa Bay. Correct me if I am wrong.  Tampa has the favorable geography for letting SW winds drive the water into the bay.

St. Petersburg now has 31 kt gusting to 40 kt, with the radar picking up at least 50 kts at 2000ft above ground in the general area.

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7 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I bring it up because once every couple of years, Tampa is in the cone of uncertainty, or whatever you might call it. The storm systems have made landfall at various places. No storm has caused a large storm surge at Tampa Bay. Correct me if I am wrong.  Tampa has the favorable geography for letting SW winds drive the water into the bay.

St. Petersburg now has 31 kt gusting to 40 kt, with the radar picking up at least 50 kts at 2000ft above ground in the general area.

We have been very lucky, yet at my home we have lost two large oak trees in our yard enduring weeks without power with Hermine, Irma, Ian, and Idalia with gusts in the area of 70 to 80+ with each. Even our annual Tropical Storms that bring needed rain to Pinellas County in the Tampa Bay area include some gusts at 60 mph at least.

Downtown Gulfport gets flooded with storm surge almost every storm. Tell the owners of the stores downtown that have to clean up and make up losses what you feel. ;)

IMG_1146-744x558.jpeg

IMG_1154-744x558.jpeg

Its just saltwater, though. Right?

 

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38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro ens: only ~25% curve back NW CHS south (similar to 0Z) vs ~75% doing that on the 12Z GEFS.
Compared to recent Euro ens going NW CHS S: ~33% did on 0Z and ~75% did on yesterday’s 12Z

Boy that's a mouth full that I sorta kinda followed lol

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Not for nothing but,  of all the models I've seen, the 18z 12k nam starting pressure at 18z today is nearly spot on to current pressure....

 

Edit! My God, if the 3k were to be right is saying 945mb at landfall, a bit over done. Lol

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54 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Might be fighting some dry air intrusion?

There is no outflow to the W, even hints of the SW shear in the high cloud motion just W of Debby.  There is dry air being pushed in.  I watch the Dr. levi Cowan videos, he showed how the European predicted this situation that is happening now.  Cowan also mentioned a strengthening storm will moisten the atmosphere W of the storm, and maybe push bad against the shear, but there is still shear into Debby.  CIMMS shows shear is dropping toward favorable levels, which will reduce dry air inflow, as Debby builds its upper cyclone.

 

12Z GFS isn't loading for me on TT.  6Z 

ecmwf_midRH_seus_5_6Z.png

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3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Not for nothing but,  of all the models I've seen, the 18z 12k nam starting pressure at 18z today is nearly spot on to current pressure....

 

Edit! My God, if the 3k were to be right is saying 957mb at landfall, a bit over done. 

I think I already mentioned the 3k NAM has a terrible bias towards over-strengthening storms in the Gulf,  I see to recall one under 700 mb Cat 14 for a storm in the Gulf.  The 3km hurricane models are calibrated for TCs, the 3km NAM is not.  

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3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

There is no outflow to the W, even hints of the SW shear in the high cloud motion just W of Debby.  There is dry air being pushed in.  I watch the Dr. levi Cowan videos, he showed how the European predicted this situation that is happening now.  Cowan also mentioned a strengthening storm will moisten the atmosphere W of the storm, and maybe push bad against the shear, but there is still shear into Debby.  CIMMS shows shear is dropping toward favorable levels, which will reduce dry air inflow, as Debby builds its upper cyclone.

 

12Z GFS isn't loading for me on TT.  6Z 

ecmwf_midRH_seus_5_6Z.png

Gfs or euro lol? 

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13 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I think I already mentioned the 3k NAM has a terrible bias towards over-strengthening storms in the Gulf,  I see to recall one under 700 mb Cat 14 for a storm in the Gulf.  The 3km hurricane models are calibrated for TCs, the 3km NAM is not.  

Yeah I've recall other aliens in past years been ridiculously low potatoes on 3k!

 

Edit:  pressure, not potatoes, I'm tired long day at work in sun today.:facepalm:

Double edit:  I think I meant storms (??) not aliens...

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6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Yeah I've recall other aliens in past years been ridiculously low potatoes on 3k!

 

Edit:  pressure, not potatoes, I'm tired.:facepalm:

Double edit:  I think I meant storms (??) not aliens...

No offense, but maybe cut back your posts a bit.

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46 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I bring it up because once every couple of years, Tampa is in the cone of uncertainty, or whatever you might call it. The storm systems have made landfall at various places. No storm has caused a large storm surge at Tampa Bay. Correct me if I am wrong.  Tampa has the favorable geography for letting SW winds drive the water into the bay.

St. Petersburg now has 31 kt gusting to 40 kt, with the radar picking up at least 50 kts at 2000ft above ground in the general area.

103 years since the last major landfall.

We’ve had decaying tropical storms push significant surge and impact, the next major on the worst case trajectory/location will be a nightmare for the region.

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I freaking love watching these things strengthen inside radar range. We’ve gotten to see every stage of this one’s development on US radar. Excellent weather entertainment. This definitely looks like a hurricane now and one that’s wrapping up quickly 

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Strongest band of the day over us right now. If it were not for Duke Energy replacing all the poles in town last year after Idalia, our power would already be out for days. As it is right now, if we do not lose power tonight me and my wife will be very happy indeed!

We have our flashlights and battery operated fans on hand. The fridge is stocked with beer to be cold. In fact, I will restock what I have had this afternoon...

Wooo doggie! It's a blowin' out there!

 

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