wthrmn654 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: At the moment, odds are strongly in favor of significant rain threat; odds are against wind and surge threat. The scenario of a stall near Savannah GA—advertised across all major guidance and only 90 hrs out—could make a run of mill storm in terms of intensity highly impactful and, financially, very costly. Major rain maker florida possibly into the north east, i95 rain disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 I remember going to the Binghamton area, vestal specifically, with my fire dept and several others from long Island after Irene. What a rain flooding disaster then.... This will be far more wide spread kinda setup with many states affected potentially. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Major rain maker florida possibly into the north east, i95 rain disaster I think southeast Georgia to southwest SC. Savannah GA to Charleston SC, more specifically, highest risk. Plenty of time for changes but that’s the current high risk area for major fresh water flooding. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 13 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said: 12z GFS is very similar to 06z in that it stalls along the GA/SC coast for 120 hours of heavy rainfall before moving toward the SC Upstate and spinning down. That would be epic flooding, even for sandy soil. I'm seeing general 15-20 inch amounts from SAV to CHS as the firehose off the Atlantic is continuous. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro sees something similar. Our saving grace would be for a UKMET type of movement, which has it already in NC by 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 First band to hit St Petersburg. Having a pizza out for lunch and people jumped up looking out the window. I thought a tornado maybe but the scene was a few shopping carts without humans moving fast across the shopping center parking lot! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 The good news is models often overdo stalling of TC's. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 5 minutes ago, dan11295 said: The good news is models often overdo stalling of TC's. True and that is encouraging although CC has favored increased max rainfall due to combo of some slowdown in avg speed of movement and higher dewpoints. Thinking about Harvey, Florence, Allison, etc. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 First band to hit St Petersburg. Having a pizza out for lunch and people jumped up looking out the window. I thought a tornado maybe but the scene was a few shopping carts without humans moving fast across the shopping center parking lot! A band or just summer Florida storms? Seems a little far away to be considered a band of the storm? I’d expect if anything the Tampa/St Pete gets a little rain from this tomorrow but all signs seem to point to this being well off shore when it passes that part of Florida. Unless of course when it starts to really structure up the storms really push out the eastern side. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 9 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: A band or just summer Florida storms? Seems a little far away to be considered a band of the storm? I’d expect if anything the Tampa/St Pete gets a little rain from this tomorrow but all signs seem to point to this being well off shore when it passes that part of Florida. Unless of course when it starts to really structure up the storms really push out the eastern side. . I’ve watched this band for a few hours. EDIT: OK, maybe not a “band”, but not a typical every day afternoon thunderstorm I obsess about every day. This line across the Florida peninsula has been coming up with the circular motion of the future Debby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 14 minutes ago, GaWx said: Our saving grace would be for a UKMET type of movement, which has it already in NC by 120. Since the storm now exists and the environment sufficiently sampled around the storm, the Euro in an hour or so will be telling if it agrees with the GFS or the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 5 minutes ago, Prospero said: I’ve watched this band for a few hours. EDIT: OK, maybe not a “band”, but not a typical every day afternoon thunderstorm I obsess about every day. This line across the Florida peninsula has been coming up with the circular motion of the future Debby. Yah it had a different feel. Very heavy downpour and stiff breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Yah it had a different feel. Very heavy downpour and stiff breeze. I guess we just missed it over here, yesterday afternoon had some doozies though, quite a few tree branches down in the backyard and neighborhood with heavy rain. Sometimes unless it’s a direct hit it can be hard to tell the difference in just a heavier than normal afternoon storm and a tropical system (at least of the TS nature, obviously major hurricanes are different). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 37 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Major rain maker florida possibly into the north east, i95 rain disaster Per the 12z GFS op: 3" - 5" RIC to Baltimore 5" - 7" Baltimore to NYC 7" - 11" NYC to BOS. All of Massachusetts gets at least half a foot of rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 4 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Yah it had a different feel. Very heavy downpour and stiff breeze. Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 3 Author Share Posted August 3 11 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said: Since the storm now exists and the environment sufficiently sampled around the storm, the Euro in an hour or so will be telling if it agrees with the GFS or the UKMET. It’s already running. Out to 150 so far on wx models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s already running. Out to 150 so far on wx models. These and others suggest 12Z Euro has just about as bad a huge rainfall total for SAV-CHS (15”+) (slightly lower most of corridor but still with insane max ~22”centered on HHI/Beaufort). Also, again a cat 1 H hits CHS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Anytime models show a storm stalling , it takes a lot to accomplish that. Need all variables to line up perfectly... rare, but if it doesn't end up being the stalling scenario, which is more likely to happen then, up the coast? Inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s already running. Out to 150 so far on wx models. Looks to be stronger? No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 3 Author Share Posted August 3 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Looks to be stronger? No? Off the SE coast it’s about the same as 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Off the SE coast it’s about the same as 00z. Slower or faster I couldn't tell with what little I see on tb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Pinellas County FL: The Skyway Fishing Pier recorded a gust of 40 mph. Baleo Way N captured a 60 mph gust with this line of storms that appears to be from the TD we are watching on SailFlow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 3 Author Share Posted August 3 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Slower or faster I couldn't tell with what little I see on tb. It looks about the same between FL and the SE landfall, and then faster than 00z moving from inland SC to points NE. Very different in that regard from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 28 minutes ago, GaWx said: These and others suggest 12Z Euro has just about as bad a huge rainfall total for SAV-CHS (15”+) (slightly lower most of corridor but still with insane max ~22”centered on HHI/Beaufort). Also, again a cat 1 H hits CHS. Truly a nightmare scenario for coastal areas from Savannah to Wilmington because of the long duration onshore flow, saturated soils (below), training convection ahead of and with the outer bands and potential surge. Hope people aren't downplaying concurrent sea/freshwater flood risks in these areas that have seen some of the greatest rises in sea level due to CC and sinking land. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHSVol Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Downtown Charleston and many areas will flood on a sunny day depending on the tide and recent rain. I doubt downtown will be accessible if the 12Z Euro holds but will post some pictures if I can. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 21 minutes ago, CHSVol said: Downtown Charleston and many areas will flood on a sunny day depending on the tide and recent rain. I doubt downtown will be accessible if the 12Z Euro holds but will post some pictures if I can. I’m checking in their driving up from Orlando Fl on August 11th hopefully the town is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Convection popping right over the low level center right now. I think it's off to the races. Wouldn't be surprised to see this pushing cat 2 at the Florida big bend landfall. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 17 minutes ago, CHSVol said: Downtown Charleston and many areas will flood on a sunny day depending on the tide and recent rain. I doubt downtown will be accessible if the 12Z Euro holds but will post some pictures if I can. My first storm was as a kid in 1968 on Charleston Air Force Base with Hurricane Gladys passing by. All us kids were playing outside when our parents called us in. There was no Weather Channel or online Weather forums. Most people still had a black and white TV with rabbit era antennae. I think my dad was called to fly one of the fighter planes to another base and passed on the news a storm was pending. Soon as it got dark, lawn furniture started to fly and the backyard became a lake very quickly once it started. An ancient very large oak tree came down which always makes me sad. But I was hooked forever on storms at 8 years old. Gladys came through Pinellas County FL where I live now too. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gladys_(1968) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 4 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Convection popping right over the low level center right now. I think it's off to the races. Wouldn't be surprised to see this pushing cat 2 at the Florida big bend landfall. I guess there are rarely any prediction numbers on whether any rapid intensification might occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 6 minutes ago, Prospero said: I guess there are rarely any prediction numbers on whether any rapid intensification might occur? I'm not sure why this is a weenie take. The storm has a clear low level center with convection popping overhead, and will be traversing some of the hottest water in the world right now for the next 400 miles, along with what appears to be good atmospheric conditions. This along with GFS showing a landfall pressure of 983, I think cat 2 is clearly on the table right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 39 minutes ago, CHSVol said: Downtown Charleston and many areas will flood on a sunny day depending on the tide and recent rain. I doubt downtown will be accessible if the 12Z Euro holds but will post some pictures if I can. SC Flood map (FEMA MSC doesn't allow to zoom way out) https://scfloodimpact.com/Index 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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